Commodities · resolved market
Will 10 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day April 8–12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x90397d17bfed025eb8cb3fc85400f53f120faabd0ffa1a0702d17273b81b241b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $67,321
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $66,647
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $67,321 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 114 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3732…43acbacked No | 20c | 10,739$2,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,120.06 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe94b…5abebacked No | 29c | 7,339$2,161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,160.51 | 150 | 20.7%31 W · 119 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed Yes | 75c | 6,560$4,941 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,619.37 | 87 | 34.5%30 W · 57 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…6787backed Yes | 71c | 3,986$2,824 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,161.66 | 119 | 21%25 W · 94 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x162f…798dbacked Yes | 72c | 2,000$1,440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 40cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed No | 40c | 2,000$790 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$789.99 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe278…b608backed Yes | 55c | 2,000$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$899.98 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97a6…2190backed No | 32c | 1,970$622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$622.21 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f1…c4bdbacked Yes | 71c | 1,533$1,095 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.65 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0dc…3944backed No | 33c | 1,415$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.38 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 60cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa510…1f80backed No | 13c | 1,281$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.88 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -92.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b72…6dbebacked No | 20c | 1,157$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.72 | 72 | 31.9%23 W · 49 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd2…084dbacked No | 28c | 1,047$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.02 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7a…6875backed No | 18c | 1,042$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.21 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked No | 29c | 1,029$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.51 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed No | 45c | 1,000$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.98 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x731f…f8fbbacked Yes | 55c | 1,000$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e87…9a3fbacked No | 20c | 999.99$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9453…1a48backed No | 37c | 982.26$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb9…3870backed Yes | 69c | 962.38$665 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.68 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1,367.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 76c | 821.9$626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.63 | 210 | 11.9%25 W · 185 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2db7…8f9bbacked Yes | 69c | 771.32$535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.07 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +4.7wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a8…fb82backed Yes | 75c | 762.32$575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.87 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +7.2wins | +0.32per pick | 42cpaid | +140.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x94b0…9d34backed Yes | 77c | 701.84$542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.55 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +5.5wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5df7…780dbacked No | 15c | 666.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8df9…468cbacked Yes | 77c | 662.27$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.27 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b3…1426backed No | 18c | 538.21$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.3 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…7016backed Yes | 70c | 402.97$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.6 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +5.5wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +75.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9922…1a6fbacked No | 8c | 397.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3298…355ebacked Yes | 61c | 369.16$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e6f…67e3backed No | 30c | 366.65$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.75 | 49 | 14.3%7 W · 42 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -44%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 73c | 363.14$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.12 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…c0a4backed Yes | 71c | 350$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.5 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 76c | 345.02$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.76 | 238 | 46.6%111 W · 127 L | +13.3wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34bc…73babacked No | 42c | 337.94$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.83 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa2b…c35dbacked No | 13c | 322.52$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.55 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45d3…9364backed No | 31c | 321.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf058…955bbacked No | 16c | 318.89$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.02 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -73.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed No | 40c | 300.34$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.45 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4934…5951backed Yes | 66c | 300$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +3.9wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +268.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked No | 4c | 276.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2a…5ccebacked No | 11c | 269.53$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 76c | 263.27$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.69 | 186 | 37.6%70 W · 116 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb46…3692backed No | 13c | 258.62$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.61 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9dc…6900backed No | 28c | 245$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…3caabacked No | 41c | 241$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.47 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf903…da83backed No | 45c | 223.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Yes | 75c | 208.34$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.56 | 95 | 44.2%42 W · 53 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 8c | 204.87$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 273 | 22%60 W · 213 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 77c | 203.26$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.68 | 89 | 59.6%53 W · 36 L | +7.5wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +12%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd339…9d25backed Yes | 56c | 200$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbaa…dd4fbacked Yes | 76c | 200$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 61cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked No | 33c | 198.22$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -4.9wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x50b2…c94abacked Yes | 78c | 192.89$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.93 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -4.2wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f8…05f9backed Yes | 61c | 186.52$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed33…ad20backed No | 31c | 181$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe091…163fbacked Yes | 59c | 170.35$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.35 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x830b…0a93backed Yes | 58c | 164.97$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.19 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2f…4adbbacked Yes | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +4.6wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd104…7c02backed No | 26c | 158.78$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -5.7wins | -0.15per pick | 47cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2fcd…1372backed No | 16c | 131.25$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…6a92backed No | 22c | 126$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.92 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ce5…d3fcbacked Yes | 80c | 125.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.27 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d7…a707backed No | 20c | 118.35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.74 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc77b…a526backed No | 29c | 117.75$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc615…c02fbacked No | 43c | 115.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf2…70a4backed No | 21c | 110$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2a…e8a9backed No | 28c | 106.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 32c | 105.81$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.23 | 1,032 | 9.3%96 W · 936 L | -24.3wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked No | 11c | 102.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 61c | 102$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 1,051 | 34.7%365 W · 686 L | -93.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -33%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79e6…aaa1backed Yes | 56c | 98.55$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.36 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19be…c270backed Yes | 63c | 91.67$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.18 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…06acbacked Yes | 76c | 91.3$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.91 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.32per pick | 31cpaid | +76%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8015…3c6bbacked Yes | 68c | 87.02$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d30…dcd6backed Yes | 55c | 81.43$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.43 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d9e…0841backed No | 31c | 79.51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1faa…502bbacked No | 26c | 76.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12c0…d648backed No | 38c | 66.22$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 65c | 64.69$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.57 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x401a…9e00backed No | 16c | 63.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb57…1092backed No | 19c | 63.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x949f…b038backed No | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 23cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x171e…e046backed No | 45c | 60.38$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.07 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 79c | 56.19$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.81 | 128 | 29.7%38 W · 90 L | -15.7wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x909f…431abacked No | 47c | 55.32$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xccc1…ed92backed No | 29c | 53.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5bb…bdb8backed No | 39c | 51.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2a…b7b5backed Yes | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.1 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab62…af75backed No | 23c | 48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19a8…b852backed No | 26c | 44.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5466…30d6backed No | 37c | 43.68$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc17…c4abbacked No | 46c | 43.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa721…d904backed No | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +3.6wins | +0.22per pick | 59cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab3…9cd6backed Yes | 78c | 38.58$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 63c | 35.97$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.41 | 94 | 42.6%40 W · 54 L | -5.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22f1…6415backed No | 30c | 35.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 118 | 38.1%45 W · 73 L | -10.6wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3877…ea2ebacked Yes | 59c | 33.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.67 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x962b…f0f9backed No | 43c | 30.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 10 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day April 8–12?this page
- Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day April 8–12?No won
- Will 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day April 8–12?No won
- Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day April 8–12?No won
- Will 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day April 8–12?No won
- Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day April 8–12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.