Commodities · resolved market
Will 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day April 8–12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1b9019576465f6f498fa8d162bf04a933f18bc77e539ef7241cf956d254c1173
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,076
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,228
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,076 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3276…dd01backed Yes | 1c | 2,250$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 4c | 2,165$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.54 | 210 | 11.9%25 W · 185 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 12c | 1,083$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.41 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7a…6875backed Yes | 20c | 1,078$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.33 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 1,018$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.07 | 1,024 | 9.1%93 W · 931 L | -25.7wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8260…a14bbacked Yes | 6c | 827.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1605…ad36backed Yes | 13c | 794.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2604…27c1backed Yes | 6c | 780$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcee…7634backed Yes | 6c | 773.09$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae02…6d55backed Yes | 6c | 747.46$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.92 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -86.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…7016backed No | 70c | 638.55$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.38 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +5.5wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +75.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 24c | 450$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 77 | 23.4%18 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd404…b4ebbacked Yes | 10c | 410.69$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.59 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 4c | 312.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 110 | 32.7%36 W · 74 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34cb…7588backed Yes | 25c | 306.45$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.73 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97a6…2190backed Yes | 31c | 298.32$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.96 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2db7…8f9bbacked Yes | 7c | 240.66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +4.7wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed No | 68c | 228.32$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.15 | 87 | 34.5%30 W · 57 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b72…6dbebacked Yes | 6c | 221$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 72 | 31.9%23 W · 49 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x355c…e6d4backed No | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +11%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x79e6…aaa1backed Yes | 28c | 125$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63f1…6272backed No | 76c | 102.34$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.56 | 116 | 28.4%33 W · 83 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 15c | 90.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 1,045 | 34.6%362 W · 683 L | -93.1wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4361…873fbacked No | 78c | 54$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 390 | 34.4%134 W · 256 L | -33.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1bb0…2b36backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x533e…4252backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc26…0f7ebacked No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 62cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcec5…f20fbacked No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa9…831fbacked No | 71c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe466…9531backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 75cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day April 8–12?this page
- Will 10 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day April 8–12?Yes won
- Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day April 8–12?No won
- Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day April 8–12?No won
- Will 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day April 8–12?No won
- Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day April 8–12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.