TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x79e6…aaa1

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
155
Categories scored
18
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: AI, grading 58 out of 100 (+0.07 per pick).

Best Category AI at 58 out of 100; worst IPO at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 6, 2026, EDT3540%14 W · 21 L-2.6wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-20.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
World Politics — the 35 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$51.42
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.91
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+284.6%+$148
Will Fuerza Popular (FP) win the most seats in the 2026 Peruvian Chamber of Deputies election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.31
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$67Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT+42.5%+$28.52
Will Keiko Fujimori win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by less than 5%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$36.76
Will Rafael López Aliaga and Keiko Fujimori advance to the runoff?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$6.9
Will Keiko Fujimori finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$199.8
Will Jason Perry win the 2026 London Borough of Croydon mayoral election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.08
Will the Bank of Mexico announce no change at the May meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.7
Will the Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPI(M)) win the most seats in the 2026 Kerala Legislative Assembly election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT+308.2%+$37.75
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$132Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT+127.5%+$168.15
Will We Continue the Change – Democratic Bulgaria (PP–DB) finish third in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$13
Will Otto Ritter win the 2026 Santa Cruz gubernatorial election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT+100.6%+$20.06
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by <9%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$18
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 3-6%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 9%+?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$68
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 6-9%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT+27.9%+$22.37
Will TISZA win 54%+ of the national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$17
Will Our Homeland Movement (Mi Hazánk) win at least one seat in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$56Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT+35.7%+$19.97
Will TISZA win 46-50% of the national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$102Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$48
Will voter turnout be 80%+ in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT+123%+$55.17
Will voter turnout be 77–80% in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$37.67
Will Starmer say "Hundred" or "Thousand" 5+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$17
Showing 25 of 35 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT2857.1%16 W · 12 L+2.9wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+0.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Middle East — the 28 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$18
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+146.9%+$59.5
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$55.61
Houthi military action against Israel by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT+37%+$13.5
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$14
Will Iran strike Qatar by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$23.5
Israel strike on Yemen by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$8.74
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$158Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$42
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$119Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+73.9%+$87.97
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$1,386Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+105.4%+$1,461.26
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$48
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$79Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$78.8
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$94Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$93.8
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$126Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$74
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 18, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.52
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$34
Will Iran strike Iraq by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$69Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+30.1%+$20.8
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$361Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+166.5%+$600.52
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$84Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+48.9%+$41.3
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$28
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.41
Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 9, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$41.37
Will Iran strike Kuwait by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+97.1%+$29.64
US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$1,409Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+67.3%+$948.42
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by April 19, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$46Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+26.5%+$12.16
Showing 25 of 28 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT2850%14 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-25.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 28 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$285Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+40.4%+$115.14
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+25%+$4
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $65 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$8.2
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$77Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$23
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$278Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+43.9%+$122
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.38
Will gas hit (Low) $3.85 by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$41
Will Iran strike Ras Laffan Industrial City again by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+25%+$20
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$314Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+27.4%+$86
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$32
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$132Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$68
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$104Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$104
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$45.3
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$263Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$262.66
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on April 16?backed Up · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$62Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$39.95
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.64
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$210Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$209.57
Will 50-59 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 6-April 12?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$62Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+61.8%+$38.2
Will 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day April 8–12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$35
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day April 8–12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$98Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$98
Will 10 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day April 8–12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$43.36
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$89Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+25%+$22.13
Will 60 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 6-April 12?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$166Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$153
Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on April 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$22
Showing 25 of 28 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Apr 17, 2026, EDT1338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick43cpaid+39%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Tweets — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.5
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.5
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+990.9%+$181.67
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from April 7 to April 14, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$44.96
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from April 7 to April 14, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+130.1%+$14.39
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$10.5
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$76.44
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.75
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$24
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 9 to April 11, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.04
Will White House post 140-159 posts from April 3 to April 10, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.9
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$92Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$91.85
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$20
All 13 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1172.7%8 W · 3 L+2.5wins+0.23per pick50cpaid+59.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
AI — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will any AI model reach 1530 Overall Arena Score by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$59
Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$65Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+44.6%+$28.8
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$57Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT+426.3%+$243
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$3.76
Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$171Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+108.2%+$185.57
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+82.3%+$26.64
Will Anthropic have the #3 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$27.5
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$20
Claude 4.7 released by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
GPT-5.5 released by April 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$59.5
Will Melania say "Law" or "Order" during statement on April 9?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$8.2
All 11 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Apr 10, 2026, EDT933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-49%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Weather — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on April 10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT+35.4%+$15
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on April 9?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$14
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on April 9?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 7°C on April 9?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.93
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 9°C on April 9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.5
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on April 9?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$19.82
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 30°C on April 9?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.5
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 17°C on April 9?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$6.4
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on April 9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$17
All 9 picks, newest first.
Us Midtermslast resolved Aug 19, 2026, EDT580%4 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.28per pick52cpaid+54.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukrainelast resolved Aug 19, 2026, EDT540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-27.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved May 31, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-14.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
NBA — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick60cpaid-58.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Movies — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
IPO — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Apr 24, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-28.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
DeepSeek V4 released by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$30
DeepSeek V4 released by April 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$14
All 2 picks, newest first.
Golf Inactivelast resolved Apr 12, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-22.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Golf — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Golf, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT+54.4%+$21.15
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.25
All 2 picks, newest first.
Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Apr 14, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-29.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved May 13, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump visit China by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$44.89
FISA Section 702 reauthorized before it expires?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.07
All 2 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved May 13, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$50.98
All 1 picks, newest first.
Earnings Inactivelast resolved Apr 22, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Earnings — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Tesla (TSLA) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$106Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$94
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$5.6
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.