TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Otto Ritter win the 2026 Santa Cruz gubernatorial election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$288,927
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$211,582

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $288,927 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 281 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfcf2…a852backed Yes19c37,899$7,103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,103.0310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd12f…e85abacked Yes1c15,845$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.893432.4%11 W · 23 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick26cpaid-18.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x98b0…43c2backed Yes18c12,786$2,286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,286.37520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-38.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f0b…855ebacked Yes11c11,115$1,261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,260.92862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.22per pick40cpaid+38%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0efd…1567backed Yes30c9,428$2,851 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,851.451154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0476…d8a7backed Yes15c7,990$1,167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,167.42650%3 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+59.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x98d0…f14abacked No77c5,100$3,948 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,151.9914947.7%71 W · 78 L+6.9wins+0.05per pick43cpaid-6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfa62…a9cebacked Yes12c4,922$608 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$607.98250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-16.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a62…4b2dbacked Yes14c4,782$676 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$676.49250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick16cpaid+181.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4976…d25cbacked Yes24c4,691$1,121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,121.41241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc108…3653backed Yes21c4,627$990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$990.0610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes12c4,525$553 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$552.656883.6%25 W · 663 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-59.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbad5…06f5backed Yes21c3,716$783 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$783.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2666…d969backed Yes18c3,332$594 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$594.31837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.16per pick21cpaid+452.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4d83…4888backed Yes14c3,132$447 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$447944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.17per pick27cpaid+69.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x84ba…5df5backed Yes10c2,977$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x644e…99c6backed Yes27c2,774$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75020%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe09c…a769backed Yes36c2,764$999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.49425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-52.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes9c2,717$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.341,43110.1%145 W · 1,286 L-4.9wins0.00per pick10cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b9d…983fbacked Yes7c2,611$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.04450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+96.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb3d…51e3backed Yes13c2,290$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.4110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa4a6…b33ebacked Yes33c2,214$723 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$722.68250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+182.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d88…cb98backed Yes5c2,142$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.5110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x784f…5df9backed Yes41c2,125$877 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$877.057436.5%27 W · 47 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-2.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a19…0762backed Yes13c2,088$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.351315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick16cpaid+24.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56dc…0cf5backed Yes49c2,036$998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51a3…9c26backed Yes43c1,994$852 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$851.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f2a…7f70backed Yes10c1,936$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes22c1,786$387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$387.139123.1%21 W · 70 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick21cpaid+42.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfec…9cccbacked Yes29c1,770$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$520.471723.5%4 W · 13 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick18cpaid+2,755.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x78f1…3c1cbacked Yes17c1,769$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No75c1,751$1,306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$444.9332255%177 W · 145 L+14.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8ca0…b9ebbacked Yes13c1,591$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.9110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes16c1,511$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.654766.5%31 W · 445 L-8.9wins-0.02per pick8cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc92c…daa7backed Yes17c1,479$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.23728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes12c1,435$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.024812.5%6 W · 42 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick12cpaid-26%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa12a…54b6backed Yes28c1,425$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-20.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e5b…73d0backed Yes11c1,424$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.012045%9 W · 11 L+4.3wins+0.22per pick23cpaid+67%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x2c6f…5ddfbacked Yes18c1,381$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.871040%4 W · 6 L+1.9wins+0.19per pick21cpaid+75.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0dec…eb00backed Yes12c1,295$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1dcf…a152backed Yes11c1,252$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.88250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick14cpaid+198.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc2e0…6376backed Yes37c1,244$455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$455.4410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6b6…9344backed Yes25c1,157$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.121838.9%7 W · 11 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick34cpaid-17.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x10a6…6638backed Yes20c1,144$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.141526.7%4 W · 11 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick24cpaid-13.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe93e…3ca7backed Yes12c1,133$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.3510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x640f…8bcebacked Yes22c1,091$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.18520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick16cpaid+5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes26c931.13$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.234726.8%93 W · 254 L-12.3wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-31.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc01f…cd8ebacked Yes52c924.05$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4807027.1%19 W · 51 L+0.2wins0.00per pick27cpaid-36.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No72c919.28$664 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.0688448.5%429 W · 455 L-2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb41…0372backed Yes11c890.38$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdad1…8b6bbacked Yes12c890$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.43425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick36cpaid+12.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5189…7320backed Yes63c878.51$549 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$549.36540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-44.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xef66…e6c8backed Yes2c863.13$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.88366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.28per pick39cpaid+18.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbfc5…4cc5backed Yes12c816.23$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.99366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick40cpaid+44%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc9e7…05cabacked Yes18c812.09$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.5670%0 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed Yes8c766.47$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.051357.4%10 W · 125 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick5cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6600…e4f1backed Yes27c764.16$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.19616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick24cpaid-43.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x448a…e94dbacked Yes66c760.61$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$498.93425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.31per pick56cpaid-54.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes28c758.24$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.8718246.2%84 W · 98 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No75c719.69$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.7926052.3%136 W · 124 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes3c716.98$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.7515014%21 W · 129 L+6.4wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-4.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb76c…992fbacked Yes19c700$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1331154.5%6 W · 5 L+2.1wins+0.19per pick36cpaid+38.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb12e…8c6cbacked No74c690.93$511 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.642951.7%15 W · 14 L-2.9wins-0.10per pick62cpaid-21.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x68e8…e87bbacked Yes73c686.12$498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$497.99250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa951…8a2fbacked No76c683$522 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.623246.9%15 W · 17 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-16.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x390a…69a6backed Yes18c682.45$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.3120%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0944…3018backed Yes2c639.98$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1650%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e17…4836backed Yes10c630.5$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-51%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03cd…ce1abacked Yes9c629.17$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.1310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes11c600.96$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.3510261.8%63 W · 39 L+13.2wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+20.8%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0xb3f3…700fbacked Yes9c600.14$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc41f…7145backed Yes50c599.79$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.9450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-31%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4bb9…2565backed Yes73c586.6$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$429.67250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick76cpaid-37.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc77e…7c92backed Yes28c527.33$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+57%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2afd…deb4backed No62c526.99$327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.196836.8%25 W · 43 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+3.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes7c503.5$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.524110.8%26 W · 215 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-34%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x714f…66d5backed Yes17c503.5$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.1111020.9%23 W · 87 L-6.3wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-32.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe46c…bfd6backed Yes48c501.27$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24030%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes19c484.41$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.539414%55 W · 339 L-71.9wins-0.18per pick32cpaid-73.1%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0xe3eb…43aebacked Yes27c480.76$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa44f…7879backed Yes54c459.1$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.35333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-37.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f7c…cb5fbacked Yes49c459$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.052441.7%10 W · 14 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes4c448.82$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.921664.2%7 W · 159 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick2cpaid-3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43ee…93e2backed Yes23c440.27$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked No79c440$348 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.417921.2%38 W · 141 L+10.6wins+0.06per pick15cpaid+56.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9d9a…0689backed Yes47c438.59$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.64450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+14.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb2e7…52b0backed Yes23c426.94$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae99…8865backed Yes49c423.09$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.69633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-27.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3fe…979bbacked Yes21c423.06$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.78250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-27%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8bae…c6bfbacked Yes24c420.28$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes10c400.85$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.7544428.8%128 W · 316 L-67.6wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-51.6%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x5438…c61bbacked Yes26c377.14$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.14250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+136.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5701…6d2abacked Yes9c354.87$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.7350%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad82…66c4backed Yes20c346.78$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.51250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick17cpaid+255.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb7cd…762dbacked Yes73c340.81$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c54…029ebacked Yes23c323.06$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf839…bbf0backed Yes29c322.48$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-33.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x65c6…8490backed Yes18c320.19$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0af8…8973backed Yes35c311.05$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.94425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-63.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes8c305$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.442117.1%15 W · 196 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick5cpaid+13.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.