TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x1e5b…73d0

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
48
Categories scored
11
Categories below 50
8

Best Category: World Politics, grading 61 out of 100 (+0.10 per pick).

Best Category World Politics at 61 out of 100; worst Fifa International at 40.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 6, 2026, EDT2045%9 W · 11 L+4.3wins+0.22per pick23cpaid+67%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
World Politics — the 20 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$382Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$381.93
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+64.9%+$17.5
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT+222.4%+$71.18
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT+352.8%+$158.75
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$23
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT+122.3%+$18.35
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT+830.4%+$345.75
Will Otto Ritter win the 2026 Santa Cruz gubernatorial election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$160.01
Will Luis Fernando Camacho win the 2026 Santa Cruz gubernatorial election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT+179%+$214.72
Will Juan Pablo Velasco win the 2026 Santa Cruz gubernatorial election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT+366.9%+$293.44
Will Luis Antonio Revilla win the 2026 La Paz gubernatorial election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$74.97
Will Fátima Tardío win the 2026 Sucre mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT+83.5%+$22.8
Will Manfred Reyes Villa win the 2026 Cochabamba mayoral election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$66.23
Will Salvador Nasralla win the 2025 Honduras presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2025, EST-100%-$55
Will LLA hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2025 Argentina election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$431Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+217.9%+$939.92
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 20, 2025, EST-100%-$10.16
Will Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$275Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$275.3
Will any candidate win outright in 1st round of Bolivia Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$60
All 20 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT1225%3 W · 9 L-3.3wins-0.27per pick52cpaid-60.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advancebacked Spain · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$152Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+48.4%+$73.57
Will England win on 2026-07-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT+37%+$14.92
France vs. England: Team to Winbacked France · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$40.49
England vs. Argentina: Team to Advancebacked England · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.05
France vs. Spain: Team to Advancebacked France · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Switzerland vs. Colombia: Team to Advancebacked Colombia · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Portugal vs. Spain: Team to Advancebacked Portugal · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.26
Mexico vs. England: Team to Advancebacked England · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$29.81
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will Bolivia qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
All 12 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Jul 25, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.31per pick56cpaid-66%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Boxing — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Dec 24, 2025, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick51cpaid+4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Rockets vs. Clippersbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2025, EST-100%-$15
Spurs vs. Knicksbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 17, 2025, EST-100%-$62.5
Spurs vs. Thunderbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST+212.5%+$21.25
All 3 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Dec 16, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+72.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Dolphins vs. Steelersbacked Dolphins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2025, EST-100%-$35
Chargers vs. Chiefsbacked Chargers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST+244.8%+$73.45
All 2 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 4, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST-100%-$25.5
Maduro out in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$29.79
All 2 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Dec 30, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+83.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "Stranger Things: Season 5" be the top US Netflix show this week? (December 30, 2025)backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST+83.1%+$16.62
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Nov 5, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$11.21
All 1 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Dec 25, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Spotify's top song on Christmas be 'All I Want For Christmas Is You'?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 25, 2025, EST-100%-$25
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 11, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US forces in Venezuela again by January 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST-100%-$38
All 1 picks, newest first.
South American Leagues Inactivelast resolved Dec 14, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
South American Leagues — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in South American Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Racing Club win on 2025-12-13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST-100%-$35
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.