Us Politics · resolved market
US forces in Venezuela again by January 10, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf5000584b3e64d08651ab372bb7f847e13e4be6c657ce0dbca94c1f480fa65d9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $510,719
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $431,203
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $510,719 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 311 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9648…6825backed Yes | 4c | 30,958$1,199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,199.06 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 37cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7744…999ebacked Yes | 5c | 18,949$946 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$945.93 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x448b…181abacked Yes | 5c | 14,000$682 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$681.54 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bea…f95abacked Yes | 9c | 10,067$910 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$910 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3894…9b76backed Yes | 4c | 10,019$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 6c | 8,587$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491.97 | 196 | 38.8%76 W · 120 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 4c | 8,092$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.72 | 110 | 10%11 W · 99 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -32%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x071c…9b75backed Yes | 4c | 7,278$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.62 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 0c | 5,824$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 132 | 16.7%22 W · 110 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…9b33backed Yes | 26c | 5,637$1,446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,445.93 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.17per pick | 30cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd76d…2740backed Yes | 18c | 5,596$983 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$983.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f29…f03dbacked Yes | 15c | 5,545$850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$850 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11ea…d47ebacked Yes | 0c | 5,500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53d3…ba87backed Yes | 8c | 5,485$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.78 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x498e…f5c5backed Yes | 6c | 5,436$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6402…2fa1backed Yes | 10c | 5,429$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524.35 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfded…28aabacked Yes | 4c | 5,000$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe194…cd47backed Yes | 7c | 5,000$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes | 11c | 4,890$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528.36 | 82 | 31.7%26 W · 56 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 4,663$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.03 | 134 | 3.7%5 W · 129 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 4c | 4,400$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.99 | 145 | 28.3%41 W · 104 L | +11.0wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…b496backed Yes | 5c | 3,895$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.32 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad7e…f9ebbacked Yes | 19c | 3,400$644 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$644.14 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 3c | 3,310$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.72 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 6cpaid | +84.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ad…be8cbacked Yes | 13c | 3,220$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.41 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 3c | 3,166$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.33 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5874…6b11backed Yes | 11c | 2,904$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.89 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 17c | 2,863$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.56 | 441 | 11.3%50 W · 391 L | -44.5wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…31e1backed Yes | 1c | 2,707$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -67%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x357e…2a0cbacked No | 78c | 2,703$2,096 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$606.34 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +4.0wins | +0.19per pick | 38cpaid | +72.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…3d9fbacked Yes | 11c | 2,672$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d94…e7f7backed Yes | 13c | 2,666$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6268…6031backed Yes | 12c | 2,578$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.89 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | +582.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd16c…f14bbacked Yes | 2c | 2,567$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0509…6e98backed Yes | 5c | 2,507$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.9 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -4.4wins | -0.16per pick | 37cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd38d…5895backed Yes | 12c | 2,422$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 13c | 2,356$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.64 | 194 | 35.1%68 W · 126 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18aa…f6ecbacked Yes | 22c | 2,200$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.81 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…de80backed Yes | 2c | 2,193$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 4c | 2,183$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.8 | 78 | 7.7%6 W · 72 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Yes | 12c | 2,134$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.25 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdd…edfcbacked Yes | 2c | 2,128$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 3c | 2,067$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.47 | 57 | 10.5%6 W · 51 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | +75.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa17f…8f46backed Yes | 3c | 2,025$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbae2…05f2backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…cb10backed Yes | 9c | 1,957$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.74 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 1,722$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.97 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x575f…9287backed Yes | 7c | 1,700$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d9a…4841backed Yes | 10c | 1,660$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 4c | 1,640$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.78 | 41 | 9.8%4 W · 37 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b4…64edbacked Yes | 3c | 1,600$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -79.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 4c | 1,570$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.36 | 82 | 7.3%6 W · 76 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,544$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.17 | 137 | 14.6%20 W · 117 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d7…3e75backed Yes | 23c | 1,509$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.9 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe50f…6765backed Yes | 6c | 1,500$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e45…a2c4backed No | 79c | 1,450$1,143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.17 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +22%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd5…a094backed Yes | 12c | 1,447$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e8…c443backed No | 77c | 1,423$1,095 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.57 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 76cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bdb…a90dbacked Yes | 11c | 1,415$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.01 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed Yes | 15c | 1,410$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.78 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | +5.6wins | +0.13per pick | 34cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xba2c…db58backed Yes | 3c | 1,352$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +96.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2eb…83b2backed Yes | 8c | 1,265$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf93…2fd7backed No | 80c | 1,256$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.76 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a0e…9036backed Yes | 8c | 1,250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.35per pick | 25cpaid | +110.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2179…2fe8backed Yes | 8c | 1,250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76ed…62d7backed Yes | 8c | 1,250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 15c | 1,209$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.45 | 318 | 40.3%128 W · 190 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 5c | 1,200$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.9 | 38 | 13.2%5 W · 33 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 5cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1baa…173dbacked Yes | 9c | 1,178$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2938…f251backed Yes | 6c | 1,173$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe897…14ddbacked Yes | 17c | 1,156$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 3c | 1,139$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.15 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a27…487dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,113$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0efd…1567backed Yes | 18c | 1,078$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ea…17ebbacked Yes | 20c | 1,072$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.78 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1016…c866backed Yes | 2c | 1,027$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.53 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 7cpaid | +120.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Yes | 14c | 1,019$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.23 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5c…bf5ebacked Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd36…a8acbacked Yes | 16c | 1,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeceb…8d0dbacked Yes | 7c | 1,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a69…9211backed Yes | 8c | 1,000$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9690…f2d5backed Yes | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2a8…8466backed Yes | 16c | 999.99$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4e5…3263backed Yes | 10c | 999.95$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1e…bfe7backed Yes | 8c | 998.69$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.67 | 101 | 27.7%28 W · 73 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e86…6bc9backed Yes | 6c | 995$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.95 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e27…aeb9backed Yes | 15c | 961.42$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5359…68f2backed Yes | 4c | 904.21$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ec…d65bbacked Yes | 6c | 900$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0218…52c0backed Yes | 2c | 900$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd5…8d10backed Yes | 4c | 879.13$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7078…aeacbacked Yes | 6c | 843.33$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.6 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 12c | 833.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 8c | 799.98$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 152 | 27.6%42 W · 110 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec15…86abbacked Yes | 11c | 756.41$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…942fbacked Yes | 7c | 728.57$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc9…0165backed Yes | 8c | 715.25$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dde…b8f1backed Yes | 12c | 700$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7553…315abacked Yes | 5c | 700$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US forces in Venezuela again by January 10, 2026?this page
- US forces in Venezuela again by January 31, 2026?No won
- US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- US forces in Venezuela again by March 31, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.