TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,020,004
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,940,119

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,020,004 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 391 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9e90…5603backed No0c182,000$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x78c1…cfc5backed No0c101,060$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.0610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f5e…9e30backed No0c98,427$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.4310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7bc1…f996backed No0c80,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16fc…b16bbacked No0c73,657$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e63…2f2abacked No0c66,000$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa39…977fbacked No2c63,594$1,324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,323.9680%0 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed No27c56,981$15,125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,124.6118425%46 W · 138 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-37.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe17f…9d41backed No1c55,239$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30040%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8fbd…0b14backed No0c51,429$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.8410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc023…43bcbacked No0c40,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6bed…43cfbacked No2c37,222$581 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$580.7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0484…e0eebacked No1c33,762$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504.47250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick9cpaid+194.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0d7e…cb13backed No0c30,361$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6413…ab24backed No3c23,941$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$599.8210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed No0c23,780$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.782025%5 W · 15 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-11.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0db2…31b6backed No0c23,000$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked No0c21,293$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.8813714.6%20 W · 117 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-30.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9ad0…bf3dbacked No3c20,837$711 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$710.552213.6%3 W · 19 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick20cpaid-52.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec9a…c40abacked No0c20,243$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd547…8790backed No0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7302…828abacked No0c18,456$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3509…7a87backed No0c15,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No78c12,700$9,894 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,894.0969634.9%243 W · 453 L-48.8wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-31.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x134b…b4d2backed No0c12,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a2e…4aeebacked No0c12,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8af5…a68abacked No0c11,000$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe37f…d8a9backed No0c11,000$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51ae…d57cbacked No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x834b…a1fcbacked No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcad3…b0b9backed No0c10,000$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c53…8c30backed No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7847…4007backed No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x92c8…642abacked No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0b6…20febacked No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6acf…e69bbacked No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb1a…34cabacked No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked No0c9,725$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.03160%0 W · 16 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53e5…6177backed Yes78c9,703$7,571 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,132.192334.8%8 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-47.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a37…a500backed No0c9,250$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd426…334abacked No8c8,494$662 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$661.887931.6%25 W · 54 L+4.0wins+0.05per pick27cpaid+32.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8187…f7e5backed No2c7,000$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf6d2…7048backed No4c6,844$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.6670%0 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa53c…67a5backed No5c5,792$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317.4930%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb886…81b3backed Yes8c5,374$446 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,927.88742.9%3 W · 4 L+2.1wins+0.29per pick14cpaid+193.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9310…93b5backed No0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9648…6825backed Yes25c4,732$1,188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,543.95757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.20per pick37cpaid+18.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x52b0…4d24backed Yes17c4,579$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,778.921100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.83per pick17cpaid+472.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2946…8eb4backed No0c4,234$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1140%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe6b5…d5c6backed No12c4,176$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$498.5110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3a23…0f72backed No17c4,173$711 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$710.5820%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x748a…3c56backed No1c4,000$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.78520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-61.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked Yes59c3,903$2,291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,612.885042%21 W · 29 L+4.6wins+0.09per pick33cpaid+23.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes23c3,823$878 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,945.0633313.2%44 W · 289 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc435…2494backed No6c3,658$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.02714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick20cpaid-79.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc26…32cabacked Yes6c3,341$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,133.49425%1 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick7cpaid+302.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8932…eb14backed No5c3,158$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff99…5602backed Yes33c3,125$1,025 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,100.09250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick17cpaid+52.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed Yes9c2,860$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,613.7116725.1%42 W · 125 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-32.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x33e0…7d46backed Yes22c2,807$627 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,180.011353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+23.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed No60c2,690$1,605 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,604.6835519.7%70 W · 285 L-16.3wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-45.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3408…c598backed No2c2,608$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b8f…2c14backed No4c2,562$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.15520%1 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick13cpaid-36.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f29…f03dbacked Yes24c2,506$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,906.35450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+37.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0ed…47d8backed No12c2,467$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.1414241.5%59 W · 83 L+9.3wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+18.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x60a9…5a71backed No20c2,362$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4703961.5%24 W · 15 L+6.5wins+0.17per pick45cpaid+68.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x683a…e2c4backed Yes18c2,334$409 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,924.95250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+185.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Yes20c2,295$449 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,846.632634.6%9 W · 17 L+2.0wins+0.08per pick27cpaid+15.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x23b9…6447backed Yes18c2,255$406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,849.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.82per pick18cpaid+455.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b49…f2dfbacked No2c2,175$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.84120%0 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xabfb…12e5backed No5c2,152$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.17110%0 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9aeb…2729backed No12c2,123$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.244247.6%20 W · 22 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-27.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x615d…16c2backed No2c2,019$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x92d0…269ebacked No4c2,000$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8413138.9%51 W · 80 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9def…d1a5backed No4c2,000$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$703551.4%18 W · 17 L+3.6wins+0.10per pick41cpaid+10.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe23b…f147backed Yes8c1,978$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,822.71520%1 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick10cpaid+154.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6dce…4490backed No6c1,959$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.76728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.18per pick47cpaid-62.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1851…ae47backed No1c1,931$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.870%0 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xde9c…b418backed Yes18c1,926$347 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,579.321100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.82per pick18cpaid+455.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc972…dcd9backed No14c1,881$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.75333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-54.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e9a…f3bbbacked No5c1,865$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.681957.9%11 W · 8 L+2.7wins+0.14per pick44cpaid-13.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3474…be04backed Yes18c1,847$332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,514.541100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.82per pick18cpaid+455.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xba38…f74dbacked No5c1,804$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$961631.3%5 W · 11 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+102.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe72c…bbf0backed Yes18c1,733$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,413.08333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick20cpaid+80.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f0e…3165backed No4c1,675$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.0920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes19c1,658$309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,348.198921.3%19 W · 70 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick16cpaid-21.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc480…8d0dbacked No76c1,629$1,232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,232.3330%0 W · 3 L-1.7wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5243…a73cbacked Yes19c1,619$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,318.92366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick44cpaid+123.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked Yes77c1,600$1,227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37319638.8%76 W · 120 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-16.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa7fb…182cbacked No1c1,593$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd92a…98e9backed No1c1,493$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x416c…8dcebacked Yes16c1,410$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,184.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.84per pick16cpaid+525%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xad52…11acbacked No7c1,410$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.1214528.3%41 W · 104 L+11.0wins+0.08per pick21cpaid+15.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb0cb…85babacked No8c1,380$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.86425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-66.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84bc…46d7backed No1c1,374$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff17…5745backed Yes38c1,363$524 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$838.3475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+38.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x290d…9e42backed Yes18c1,356$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,111.92450%2 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.32per pick18cpaid+170.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked No7c1,348$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.931833.3%6 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+113.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b72…6dbebacked No5c1,312$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.357343.8%32 W · 41 L+4.7wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+20.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x06c1…f1f2backed Yes18c1,255$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,029.1333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+85.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.