Us Politics · resolved market
US forces in Venezuela again by January 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3f8c674a155ca643341200af3bc4dfc61a825f0c2de3d384df0707f11321de9c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $569,370
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $616,242
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $569,370 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 469 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9648…6825backed Yes | 12c | 31,805$3,703 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,703.16 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 37cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 76c | 23,766$17,981 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,784.63 | 355 | 19.7%70 W · 285 L | -16.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x784f…5df9backed No | 69c | 11,177$7,725 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,452.03 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 41cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33e0…7d46backed Yes | 25c | 10,000$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x448b…181abacked Yes | 11c | 9,673$1,028 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,027.6 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a48…2558backed Yes | 6c | 9,655$626 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$625.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd91c…3830backed Yes | 23c | 8,500$1,955 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,955 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…b496backed Yes | 12c | 7,177$850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$850 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa74d…734cbacked Yes | 28c | 6,929$1,940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,939.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f29…f03dbacked Yes | 15c | 6,556$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5372…4b1fbacked No | 80c | 5,622$4,477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,144.61 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -11%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7b…e9ebbacked Yes | 16c | 5,000$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaef…54e9backed No | 80c | 5,000$4,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -43%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ba…68fabacked Yes | 8c | 5,000$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bea…f95abacked Yes | 25c | 4,854$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,199.6 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a85bbacked No | 60c | 4,560$2,721 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,838.81 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…31e1backed Yes | 11c | 4,545$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -67%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed No | 67c | 4,527$3,047 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,479.9 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 5c | 4,448$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.58 | 134 | 3.7%5 W · 129 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0509…6e98backed Yes | 19c | 4,358$839 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$839.38 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -4.4wins | -0.16per pick | 37cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3a…ec8cbacked Yes | 23c | 4,318$1,010 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,010 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x498e…f5c5backed Yes | 14c | 3,900$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b37…d5dcbacked Yes | 17c | 3,879$666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$665.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed No | 72c | 3,724$2,670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,054.42 | 167 | 25.1%42 W · 125 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd8…58a0backed Yes | 9c | 3,423$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc589…c822backed Yes | 3c | 3,178$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 5c | 3,133$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.78 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 6cpaid | +84.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 75c | 3,124$2,345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$779.84 | 204 | 46.6%95 W · 109 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 5c | 3,064$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.16 | 76 | 5.3%4 W · 72 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 5c | 2,893$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.92 | 57 | 10.5%6 W · 51 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | +75.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 32c | 2,852$905 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$905.22 | 441 | 11.3%50 W · 391 L | -44.5wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 12c | 2,800$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.87 | 145 | 28.3%41 W · 104 L | +11.0wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8597…daeebacked No | 77c | 2,800$2,156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$644 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 2c | 2,744$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.74 | 137 | 14.6%20 W · 117 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b21…deb6backed No | 65c | 2,705$1,772 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$933.58 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.33per pick | 62cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 22c | 2,500$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555 | 196 | 38.8%76 W · 120 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 132 | 16.7%22 W · 110 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9851…1320backed Yes | 12c | 2,464$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed Yes | 42c | 2,434$1,019 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,019.17 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | +5.6wins | +0.13per pick | 34cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 6c | 2,407$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.86 | 78 | 7.7%6 W · 72 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x429c…5f41backed Yes | 16c | 2,400$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3578…d9febacked Yes | 33c | 2,394$791 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$791.48 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa17f…8f46backed Yes | 10c | 2,376$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f0…529ebacked Yes | 15c | 2,188$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.35 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd38d…5895backed Yes | 21c | 2,060$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd36…a8acbacked Yes | 18c | 2,000$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 1,999$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.79 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed6…d825backed Yes | 15c | 1,989$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae0d…b73dbacked Yes | 51c | 1,951$989 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$988.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 5c | 1,898$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.88 | 41 | 9.8%4 W · 37 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…9b33backed Yes | 43c | 1,761$752 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$751.86 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.17per pick | 30cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5874…6b11backed Yes | 31c | 1,734$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529.68 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f18…171dbacked Yes | 6c | 1,714$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6238…5f13backed Yes | 45c | 1,694$759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$758.5 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf93…2fd7backed No | 59c | 1,687$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$686.52 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 5c | 1,600$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.6 | 38 | 13.2%5 W · 33 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 5cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f82…9b01backed No | 55c | 1,600$875 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$724.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +82.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7744…999ebacked Yes | 21c | 1,571$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.83 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 10c | 1,528$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.83 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed No | 66c | 1,500$990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.99 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78cd…450cbacked Yes | 34c | 1,471$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff17…5745backed Yes | 48c | 1,457$699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$698.93 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 12c | 1,434$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.73 | 152 | 27.6%42 W · 110 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88cf…469fbacked Yes | 7c | 1,429$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 47c | 1,409$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$659.97 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | +9.1wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f2…7027backed Yes | 35c | 1,319$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.37 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…cb10backed Yes | 40c | 1,307$523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522.69 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x264c…bacabacked No | 69c | 1,300$902 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.99 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -3.3wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 2c | 1,200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 37 | 2.7%1 W · 36 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1016…c866backed Yes | 3c | 1,187$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.84 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 7cpaid | +120.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd221…a44bbacked Yes | 14c | 1,159$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.93 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 15cpaid | +71.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c97…1b68backed Yes | 33c | 1,127$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.77 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x555a…41d4backed Yes | 33c | 1,117$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd56c…2395backed Yes | 36c | 1,117$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae2…b7f9backed Yes | 9c | 1,111$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked No | 67c | 1,111$744 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.63 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +4.6wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb558…6d3cbacked Yes | 20c | 1,100$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9690…f2d5backed Yes | 40c | 1,100$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48c7…c143backed Yes | 37c | 1,092$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x006d…06f8backed Yes | 33c | 1,027$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.45 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -69.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92d3…17adbacked Yes | 20c | 1,011$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked No | 75c | 1,000$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd353…f6acbacked Yes | 45c | 1,000$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30aa…2bddbacked Yes | 14c | 1,000$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8204…56eabacked Yes | 16c | 1,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53d3…ba87backed Yes | 35c | 1,000$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked No | 76c | 1,000$755 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc17…52e6backed Yes | 54c | 1,000$539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8488…588cbacked Yes | 20c | 1,000$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3db9…4100backed Yes | 14c | 1,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7553…315abacked Yes | 14c | 1,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea7…79acbacked No | 48c | 999.99$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$519.99 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 22c | 999.98$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221 | 89 | 21.3%19 W · 70 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84ea…17ebbacked Yes | 38c | 999.97$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.99 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58f5…be7bbacked Yes | 22c | 999.61$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.88 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 33cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0efd…1567backed Yes | 35c | 990.71$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c4…0926backed Yes | 40c | 987$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 35c | 962.54$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.89 | 59 | 25.4%15 W · 44 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8886…3913backed Yes | 52c | 957.77$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab4f…552fbacked No | 62c | 907.81$565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.97 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US forces in Venezuela again by January 31, 2026?this page
- US forces in Venezuela again by January 10, 2026?No won
- US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- US forces in Venezuela again by March 31, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.