TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

US forces in Venezuela again by January 31, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$569,370
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$616,242

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $569,370 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 469 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9648…6825backed Yes12c31,805$3,703 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,703.16757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.20per pick37cpaid+18.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed No76c23,766$17,981 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,784.6335519.7%70 W · 285 L-16.3wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-45.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x784f…5df9backed No69c11,177$7,725 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,452.03757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick41cpaid-2.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x33e0…7d46backed Yes25c10,000$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,5001353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+23.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x448b…181abacked Yes11c9,673$1,028 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,027.640%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a48…2558backed Yes6c9,655$626 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$625.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd91c…3830backed Yes23c8,500$1,955 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,95510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb581…b496backed Yes12c7,177$850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$850520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-36.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa74d…734cbacked Yes28c6,929$1,940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,939.9520%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7f29…f03dbacked Yes15c6,556$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+37.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5372…4b1fbacked No80c5,622$4,477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,144.61966.7%6 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick68cpaid-11%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5a7b…e9ebbacked Yes16c5,000$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$800366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.28per pick39cpaid+108.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdaef…54e9backed No80c5,000$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0002339.1%9 W · 14 L-2.3wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-43%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc4ba…68fabacked Yes8c5,000$425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4251947.4%9 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-21.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3bea…f95abacked Yes25c4,854$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,199.660%0 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9592…a85bbacked No60c4,560$2,721 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,838.812445.8%11 W · 13 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+14.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8454…31e1backed Yes11c4,545$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-67%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x614d…1546backed No67c4,527$3,047 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,479.98453.6%45 W · 39 L+0.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes5c4,448$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.581343.7%5 W · 129 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-52.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0509…6e98backed Yes19c4,358$839 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$839.382821.4%6 W · 22 L-4.4wins-0.16per pick37cpaid-63.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8f3a…ec8cbacked Yes23c4,318$1,010 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,01010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x498e…f5c5backed Yes14c3,900$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b37…d5dcbacked Yes17c3,879$666 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$665.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed No72c3,724$2,670 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,054.4216725.1%42 W · 125 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-32.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8bd8…58a0backed Yes9c3,423$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.1210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc589…c822backed Yes3c3,178$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.7810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes5c3,133$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.781816.7%3 W · 15 L+2.0wins+0.11per pick6cpaid+84.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed No75c3,124$2,345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$779.8420446.6%95 W · 109 L-0.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes5c3,064$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.16765.3%4 W · 72 L-0.2wins0.00per pick5cpaid-25.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes5c2,893$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.925710.5%6 W · 51 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick5cpaid+75.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes32c2,852$905 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$905.2244111.3%50 W · 391 L-44.5wins-0.10per pick21cpaid-52.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xad52…11acbacked Yes12c2,800$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332.8714528.3%41 W · 104 L+11.0wins+0.08per pick21cpaid+15.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8597…daeebacked No77c2,800$2,156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6441952.6%10 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick60cpaid-22.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes2c2,744$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.7413714.6%20 W · 117 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-30.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0b21…deb6backed No65c2,705$1,772 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$933.58728.6%2 W · 5 L-2.3wins-0.33per pick62cpaid-41.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked Yes22c2,500$555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55519638.8%76 W · 120 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-16.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes1c2,500$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3013216.7%22 W · 110 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick18cpaid+19.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9851…1320backed Yes12c2,464$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.3820%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x55d0…f655backed Yes42c2,434$1,019 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,019.174247.6%20 W · 22 L+5.6wins+0.13per pick34cpaid+13.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes6c2,407$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.86787.7%6 W · 72 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x429c…5f41backed Yes16c2,400$392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3578…d9febacked Yes33c2,394$791 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$791.48140%0 W · 14 L-1.8wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa17f…8f46backed Yes10c2,376$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.4320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x61f0…529ebacked Yes15c2,188$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334.3540%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd38d…5895backed Yes21c2,060$425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4251145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd36…a8acbacked Yes18c2,000$358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$358333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-50.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c1,999$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.791,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ed6…d825backed Yes15c1,989$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae0d…b73dbacked Yes51c1,951$989 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$988.710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes5c1,898$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.88419.8%4 W · 37 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick5cpaid+6.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3c11…9b33backed Yes43c1,761$752 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$751.861513.3%2 W · 13 L-2.5wins-0.17per pick30cpaid-75.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5874…6b11backed Yes31c1,734$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$529.682020%4 W · 16 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-66.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5f18…171dbacked Yes6c1,714$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11020%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6238…5f13backed Yes45c1,694$759 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$758.51145.5%5 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid+2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf93…2fd7backed No59c1,687$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$686.52366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick63cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes5c1,600$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.63813.2%5 W · 33 L+3.2wins+0.08per pick5cpaid+47.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5f82…9b01backed No55c1,600$875 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$724.321100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+82.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7744…999ebacked Yes21c1,571$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.831540%6 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-33.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked Yes10c1,528$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.834814.6%7 W · 41 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick11cpaid-53.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d9f…9790backed No66c1,500$990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$509.995240.4%21 W · 31 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-22.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x78cd…450cbacked Yes34c1,471$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xff17…5745backed Yes48c1,457$699 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$698.93475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+38.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes12c1,434$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.7315227.6%42 W · 110 L+8.3wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+3.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x88cf…469fbacked Yes7c1,429$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe732…898fbacked Yes47c1,409$660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$659.977751.9%40 W · 37 L+9.1wins+0.12per pick40cpaid+50.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa7f2…7027backed Yes35c1,319$461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$461.372532%8 W · 17 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe72…cb10backed Yes40c1,307$523 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$522.691435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-50.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x264c…bacabacked No69c1,300$902 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$397.992035%7 W · 13 L-3.3wins-0.16per pick51cpaid-45.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5081…a309backed Yes2c1,200$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.5372.7%1 W · 36 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-68.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1016…c866backed Yes3c1,187$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.84333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick7cpaid+120.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd221…a44bbacked Yes14c1,159$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.931827.8%5 W · 13 L+2.3wins+0.13per pick15cpaid+71.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0c97…1b68backed Yes33c1,127$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369.774729.8%14 W · 33 L-3.1wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-11.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x555a…41d4backed Yes33c1,117$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd56c…2395backed Yes36c1,117$402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402.19250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+16.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ae2…b7f9backed Yes9c1,111$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f42…b88fbacked No67c1,111$744 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$366.634045%18 W · 22 L+4.6wins+0.11per pick34cpaid+67.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb558…6d3cbacked Yes20c1,100$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick22cpaid-17.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9690…f2d5backed Yes40c1,100$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4402650%13 W · 13 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+18.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x48c7…c143backed Yes37c1,092$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x006d…06f8backed Yes33c1,027$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342.45520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-69.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x92d3…17adbacked Yes20c1,011$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-33.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked No75c1,000$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2505442.6%23 W · 31 L-3.0wins-0.06per pick48cpaid+6.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd353…f6acbacked Yes45c1,000$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4502532%8 W · 17 L-2.2wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-40.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x30aa…2bddbacked Yes14c1,000$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14530%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8204…56eabacked Yes16c1,000$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x53d3…ba87backed Yes35c1,000$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5bc4…f44fbacked No76c1,000$755 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2452060%12 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.08per pick52cpaid-5.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbc17…52e6backed Yes54c1,000$539 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$539.1110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8488…588cbacked Yes20c1,000$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19620%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3db9…4100backed Yes14c1,000$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7553…315abacked Yes14c1,000$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ea7…79acbacked No48c999.99$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$519.992147.6%10 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-12.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes22c999.98$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2218921.3%19 W · 70 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick16cpaid-21.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x84ea…17ebbacked Yes38c999.97$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379.998739.1%34 W · 53 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x58f5…be7bbacked Yes22c999.61$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.88714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.18per pick33cpaid-81.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0efd…1567backed Yes35c990.71$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34820%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf5c4…0926backed Yes40c987$395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$394.8450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-31.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Yes35c962.54$337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336.895925.4%15 W · 44 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-14.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8886…3913backed Yes52c957.77$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50040%0 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xab4f…552fbacked No62c907.81$565 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$342.971040%4 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-38.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.