TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x55d0…f655

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
442
Categories scored
15
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: Ukraine, grading 60 out of 100 (+0.09 per pick).

Best Category Ukraine at 60 out of 100; worst NFL at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT20130.3%61 W · 140 L+7.6wins+0.04per pick27cpaid-29.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
AI — the 201 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will any xAI Grok model score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Exam?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$35
Will Google Gemini score at least 55% on Humanity’s Last Exam?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.16
Will Google Gemini score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.3
Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$292Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$292.45
Will xAI have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$45.29
Will Google have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$70.13
Will any xAI Grok model score at least 30% on the FrontierMath Exam?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$2,359Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT+86.1%+$2,031.84
Will any OpenAI GPT model score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Exam?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$2,256Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT+128.2%+$2,892.08
Will Google Gemini score at least 45% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$173Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT+84%+$145.74
Will any Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Exam?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT+726%+$72.83
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Gemini 3.5 released by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Gemini 3.5 released by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$31.97
Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$85Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$84.84
GPT-5.5 released by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$1,119Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT+95.3%+$1,066.45
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 35% on Humanity’s Last Exam?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$66.07
Claude 4.7 released by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$63Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+185.7%+$116.85
Will Google Gemini score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$83Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT+87.2%+$72.53
Will Google Gemini score at least 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$337Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT+77.6%+$261.64
Gemini 3.5 released by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.6
Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$249Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$248.62
Will Anthropic have the best AI model for math on March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$120.36
Will Google have the best AI model for math on March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$43.94
Will OpenAI have the best AI model for math on March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$800Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$901.88
Showing 25 of 201 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT14036.4%51 W · 89 L+8.7wins+0.06per pick30cpaid-0.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Middle East — the 140 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Internet Access restored in Iran by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+35.8%+$14.5
US forces enter Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$755Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$755
Will Iran strike Cyprus in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$3,275Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,275.36
Will Iran strike Yemen in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.48
Will Iran strike Turkey in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$419Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$419.18
Will Iran strike Pakistan in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$70
US announces military support of Iran opposition by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$125Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+147%+$184.31
US announces military support of Kurds in Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$550Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+148.2%+$815.87
Will the US accuse Iran of Oslo Embassy attack?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$1,002Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,002.36
Will Canada strike Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.33
Will France strike Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$103Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$102.94
Will Turkey strike Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$153Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$153
Will Bahrain strike Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$258Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$257.9
Will UK strike Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$1,115Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,115.26
Will UAE strike Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$198Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$197.68
Will Germany strike Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$251Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$250.56
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$531Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$531.35
Will Qatar strike Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$415Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$415.23
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$148Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$147.94
Will another country strike Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$99Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+212.5%+$210.83
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$118Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$117.81
U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$190Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$190
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$1,187Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,186.86
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$70
Showing 25 of 140 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 3, 2026, EDT4247.6%20 W · 22 L+5.6wins+0.13per pick34cpaid+13.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 42 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
SAVE America Act becomes law by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.37
Will Donald Trump be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$30.82
Will Piers Morgan be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$19.64
Will Ehud Barak be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$125Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$125.14
Will Robert Downey Jr. be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$18.6
Will Justin Trudeau be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$16.6
Will Tony Blair be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$21.49
Will Stephen Hawking be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$77.76
Will Elon Musk be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$121Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$121
Will Bill Clinton be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$35
Will Bill Gates be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$87Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$86.86
Will Alan Dershowitz be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$30
Will Epstein Data Set 13 be released by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$59.42
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by February 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+217.7%+$163.74
Will Epstein Data Set 13 be released by February 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST-100%-$90.37
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by February 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST+88.2%+$52.89
US government shutdown Saturday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$30.67
Will the government shutdown last 7 days or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$29.77
Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by February 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$180Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+94%+$169.03
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by February 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$434Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+127.8%+$554.76
Will the government shutdown last 3 days or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST+85.9%+$64.41
US forces in Venezuela again by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$1,019Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$1,019.17
Evidence Epstein blackmailed politicians released by Jan 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$85Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$85
Will Chuck Schumer be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+181.4%+$41.26
Showing 25 of 42 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT1369.2%9 W · 4 L+3.3wins+0.25per pick44cpaid+45.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Brazil join the Board of Peace?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.63
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$25
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST-100%-$25
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 12, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST+255.4%+$63.86
Will Russia strike on Kyiv municipality on January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$153Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST+114.5%+$175.09
Will Russia strike on Kyiv municipality on January 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$124Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+132.5%+$163.79
Will Russia strike on Kyiv municipality on January 29?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$151Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+116.5%+$175.93
Will Russia strike on Kyiv municipality on January 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+64.8%+$39.19
Will Russia strike on Kyiv municipality on January 27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$138Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2026, EST+99.8%+$137.32
Will Russia strike on Kyiv municipality on January 26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$71Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST+74.8%+$53.46
Will Russia strike on Kyiv municipality on January 25?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2026, EST+72.4%+$20
Will Russia strike on Kyiv municipality on January 23?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST+64.8%+$31.58
Will Russia strike on Kyiv municipality on January 24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST-100%-$75
All 13 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2026, EST1030%3 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick25cpaid-29.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Another US strike on Venezuela by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$95Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$94.62
U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$19.73
Another US strike on Venezuela by January 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST-100%-$150.16
Will Trump and Machado share the Nobel Peace Prize?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST-100%-$16
Another US strike on Venezuela by January 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$39.86
Maduro mugshot released by January 9?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$153Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST+124%+$189.75
Another US strike on Venezuela on January 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2026, EST-100%-$42.69
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship by January 9, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST+192.4%+$41.95
Trump invokes War Powers against Venezuela by January 9?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$117Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$117.14
Trump invokes War Powers against Venezuela by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$406Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST+92.1%+$374.4
All 10 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 17, 2026, EDT728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-51.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Apr 7, 2026, EDT728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-48.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tweets Inactivelast resolved Mar 24, 2026, EDT520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-25.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

IPO Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT40%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
IPO — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.34per pick33cpaid+98.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
DeepSeek V4 released by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$1,317Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+256.8%+$3,382.16
DeepSeek V4 released by March 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$388Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$388.23
DeepSeek V4 released by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$499Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+137.4%+$685.73
All 3 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Feb 21, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick21cpaid-35.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved Jan 5, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick22cpaid+40.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Music — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Olivia Rodrigo release an album in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$615Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST-100%-$615.17
Will SZA release a new song in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$240Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST+180.1%+$432.79
All 2 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
NFL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Mar 13, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.90per pick10cpaid+900%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
2026 U.S. Senate Election: Democrats flip Republicans by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT+900%+$90
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.