Middle East · resolved market
Will Iran strike Turkey in March?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x19c52cb0abc4da0f6dc92d38142a826c2c8ecf8e3148d59205bd19daf0c5251a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $533,738
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $527,868
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $533,738 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 341 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e2e…593fbacked Yes | 15c | 20,371$2,976 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,975.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd10f…f12fbacked Yes | 16c | 13,993$2,238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,237.71 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 11c | 13,369$1,481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,480.96 | 77 | 9.1%7 W · 70 L | -7.4wins | -0.10per pick | 19cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed No | 77c | 12,060$9,267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,792.77 | 287 | 34.5%99 W · 188 L | +21.3wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes | 18c | 11,690$2,095 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,095.09 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed No | 78c | 7,983$6,236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,747.59 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 6c | 6,600$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.17 | 458 | 43.7%200 W · 258 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa1d…5265backed Yes | 20c | 5,752$1,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,150 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe397…60b6backed Yes | 18c | 5,488$1,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000.55 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a81…a925backed Yes | 8c | 5,009$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.06 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | -4.5wins | -0.17per pick | 21cpaid | -93.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 8c | 4,840$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.19 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30a7…02fabacked Yes | 17c | 4,397$769 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$768.68 | 85 | 15.3%13 W · 72 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e15…7531backed Yes | 28c | 4,319$1,219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,218.82 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46e2…f8bbbacked No | 79c | 4,237$3,330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$906.56 | 109 | 45.9%50 W · 59 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c69…51cabacked Yes | 2c | 4,048$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 135 | 18.5%25 W · 110 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -16%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91dd…6780backed Yes | 7c | 3,809$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.23 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes | 12c | 3,550$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.63 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bab…17f1backed Yes | 28c | 3,508$985 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$985 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67d0…db7abacked Yes | 19c | 3,453$670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$669.81 | 136 | 17.6%24 W · 112 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x152f…c7e7backed Yes | 1c | 3,410$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 103 | 13.6%14 W · 89 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x071c…9b75backed Yes | 6c | 3,391$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.24 | 61 | 26.2%16 W · 45 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 6c | 3,317$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.28 | 119 | 9.2%11 W · 108 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0eeb…c2e2backed Yes | 10c | 3,080$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ecf…c870backed Yes | 21c | 3,072$638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$637.55 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 16cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 15c | 3,058$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.92 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…bf3dbacked Yes | 5c | 2,968$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.56 | 183 | 38.3%70 W · 113 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 12c | 2,822$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.35 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e49…ae9dbacked Yes | 12c | 2,728$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.61 | 53 | 24.5%13 W · 40 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0db5…f3aabacked Yes | 7c | 2,566$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.63 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed Yes | 17c | 2,434$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.18 | 140 | 36.4%51 W · 89 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae7c…487ebacked Yes | 40c | 2,334$945 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$945 | 105 | 28.6%30 W · 75 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes | 11c | 2,287$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.42 | 126 | 34.9%44 W · 82 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc44a…8da6backed Yes | 16c | 2,231$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.82 | 71 | 23.9%17 W · 54 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa91e…4e7fbacked Yes | 9c | 2,194$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5922…3388backed Yes | 18c | 2,159$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.51 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d7…538abacked Yes | 11c | 2,130$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.61 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…db11backed Yes | 25c | 2,073$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.59 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd9…c7f1backed Yes | 12c | 2,071$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc427…6f4dbacked Yes | 36c | 2,027$729 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$729.37 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | +7.9wins | +0.14per pick | 32cpaid | +44%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 18c | 2,020$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.57 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e85…8aaabacked Yes | 12c | 1,929$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 75 | 17.3%13 W · 62 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2282…1051backed Yes | 4c | 1,855$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.79 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 8cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f94…da32backed Yes | 25c | 1,809$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.78 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +73.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aee…5175backed Yes | 12c | 1,678$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 70c | 1,634$1,145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.04 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedc2…ad9fbacked Yes | 9c | 1,577$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.48 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | +10.2wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 13c | 1,571$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.56 | 356 | 52.8%188 W · 168 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d4…8e51backed Yes | 14c | 1,512$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.46 | 70 | 27.1%19 W · 51 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e5a…2afdbacked Yes | 12c | 1,499$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.12 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5242…7aa6backed Yes | 20c | 1,441$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.74 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b5…3591backed Yes | 26c | 1,411$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.6 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x952b…edfabacked No | 78c | 1,357$1,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.63 | 64 | 75%48 W · 16 L | +12.3wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +50%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf762…a8e6backed Yes | 21c | 1,272$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.06 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d0…a6e5backed Yes | 16c | 1,259$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e59…b2bebacked Yes | 24c | 1,225$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +97.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaec8…0f69backed Yes | 14c | 1,219$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.82 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4498…078dbacked Yes | 17c | 1,174$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.8 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -3.7wins | -0.17per pick | 21cpaid | -91.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb8…cf89backed No | 70c | 1,138$802 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.07 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdcd…8226backed Yes | 18c | 1,136$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +65.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7acd…1086backed Yes | 2c | 1,117$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 148 | 8.1%12 W · 136 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +238.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3283…338bbacked Yes | 28c | 1,084$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed No | 51c | 1,066$547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$519.36 | 312 | 41.7%130 W · 182 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3994…ff63backed Yes | 19c | 1,054$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.16 | 42 | 14.3%6 W · 36 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +74.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c6d…f391backed Yes | 37c | 1,044$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.11 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -32%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes | 14c | 1,037$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.16 | 234 | 20.9%49 W · 185 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb24d…c330backed Yes | 20c | 1,026$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.89 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa88a…3e8cbacked Yes | 25c | 1,005$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.3 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +197.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe5e…8054backed Yes | 7c | 1,003$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.09 | 55 | 25.5%14 W · 41 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedc0…99f3backed Yes | 25c | 1,000$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.5 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +3.7wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f58…5ff2backed Yes | 12c | 1,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.28 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +22%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6db2…a781backed Yes | 13c | 1,000$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.89 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | +13.0wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…21ebbacked Yes | 13c | 956.6$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 39 | 2.6%1 W · 38 L | -3.7wins | -0.10per pick | 12cpaid | -96.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x40ac…ee4bbacked Yes | 20c | 938.05$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.92 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8095…0053backed Yes | 20c | 924.64$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.77 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 19c | 907.89$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.18 | 118 | 18.6%22 W · 96 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ea6…b249backed Yes | 14c | 903.36$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.2 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…5104backed Yes | 6c | 898.73$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 18c | 895.53$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.24 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e5…f6fcbacked Yes | 21c | 880.15$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.89 | 71 | 16.9%12 W · 59 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…fd70backed Yes | 16c | 849.68$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.95 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +96.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9470…7112backed Yes | 6c | 813.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.2 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -57%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61f0…529ebacked Yes | 24c | 801.19$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.74 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 18c | 796.9$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.61 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa85a…586fbacked Yes | 13c | 787.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 8c | 768.15$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.56 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x601d…f618backed Yes | 15c | 728.04$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.58 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc2…1e51backed Yes | 12c | 710$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.59 | 40 | 0%0 W · 40 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x177d…0867backed Yes | 14c | 705.84$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | +59.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd84b…0df3backed Yes | 16c | 704.72$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.67 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +9.2wins | +0.19per pick | 34cpaid | +82.2%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa8…5909backed Yes | 13c | 700.56$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.57 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…c87cbacked Yes | 11c | 700$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.5 | 235 | 25.5%60 W · 175 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1db…838dbacked Yes | 30c | 699.77$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.23 | 34 | 11.8%4 W · 30 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30c8…840fbacked Yes | 15c | 674.6$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7e…c962backed Yes | 48c | 662.27$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.9 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -76%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe499…88fabacked Yes | 9c | 641.32$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.61 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6709…af18backed Yes | 20c | 600.16$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.5 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 12c | 597.75$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.81 | 194 | 28.9%56 W · 138 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7124…70c1backed Yes | 17c | 585$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.45 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | -5.5wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 9c | 574.65$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.72 | 486 | 30.5%148 W · 338 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40b7…3120backed Yes | 9c | 564.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 35 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Iran strike Turkey in March?this page
- Will Iran strike Afghanistan in March?No won
- Will Iran strike Armenia by March 31?No won
- Will Iran strike Azerbaijan by March 31?No won
- Will Iran strike Bahrain again in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Bahrain in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Cyprus in March?No won
- Will Iran strike Germany by March 31?No won
- Will Iran strike Hungary by March 31?No won
- Will Iran strike India in March?No won
- Will Iran strike Iraq again in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Iraq in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Israel again in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Israel in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Italy by March 31?No won
- Will Iran strike Jordan again in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Jordan in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Jordan in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Kuwait again in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Kuwait in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Lebanon in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Oman again in March?No won
- Will Iran strike Oman in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Pakistan in March?No won
- Will Iran strike Poland by March 31?No won
- Will Iran strike Qatar again in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Qatar in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Saudi Arabia again in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Saudi Arabia in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Syria in March?No won
- Will Iran strike UAE again in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike UAE in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Ukraine by March 31?No won
- Will Iran strike Yemen in March?No won
- Will Iran strike the United Kingdom by March 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.