TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Iran strike Turkey in March?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$533,738
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$527,868

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $533,738 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 341 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9e2e…593fbacked Yes15c20,371$2,976 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,975.7520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd10f…f12fbacked Yes16c13,993$2,238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,237.713240.6%13 W · 19 L+1.8wins+0.06per pick35cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes11c13,369$1,481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,480.96779.1%7 W · 70 L-7.4wins-0.10per pick19cpaid-73.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4478…02a4backed No77c12,060$9,267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,792.7728734.5%99 W · 188 L+21.3wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+0.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes18c11,690$2,095 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,095.0935631.7%113 W · 243 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x401e…6fc9backed No78c7,983$6,236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,747.5919648%94 W · 102 L+7.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked Yes6c6,600$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$420.1745843.7%200 W · 258 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa1d…5265backed Yes20c5,752$1,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,15020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe397…60b6backed Yes18c5,488$1,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000.556137.7%23 W · 38 L+0.1wins0.00per pick38cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a81…a925backed Yes8c5,009$415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$415.06263.8%1 W · 25 L-4.5wins-0.17per pick21cpaid-93.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x0d05…6a81backed Yes8c4,840$395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$395.1943212.5%54 W · 378 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-11.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x30a7…02fabacked Yes17c4,397$769 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$768.688515.3%13 W · 72 L-4.8wins-0.06per pick21cpaid-60.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9e15…7531backed Yes28c4,319$1,219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,218.8250%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x46e2…f8bbbacked No79c4,237$3,330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$906.5610945.9%50 W · 59 L+4.5wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5c69…51cabacked Yes2c4,048$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10013518.5%25 W · 110 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick17cpaid-16%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x91dd…6780backed Yes7c3,809$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.231330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+7.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes12c3,550$437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$436.6340433.7%136 W · 268 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-14.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3bab…17f1backed Yes28c3,508$985 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67d0…db7abacked Yes19c3,453$670 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$669.8113617.6%24 W · 112 L+5.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+58.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x152f…c7e7backed Yes1c3,410$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010313.6%14 W · 89 L+0.1wins0.00per pick14cpaid-23%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x071c…9b75backed Yes6c3,391$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.246126.2%16 W · 45 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick23cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes6c3,317$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.281199.2%11 W · 108 L-5.8wins-0.05per pick14cpaid-70.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0eeb…c2e2backed Yes10c3,080$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick29cpaid+18.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3ecf…c870backed Yes21c3,072$638 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$637.553426.5%9 W · 25 L+3.5wins+0.10per pick16cpaid+19.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes15c3,058$467 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$466.9250130.5%153 W · 348 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-30.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ad0…bf3dbacked Yes5c2,968$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.5618338.3%70 W · 113 L+14.5wins+0.08per pick30cpaid-13.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes12c2,822$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.3542818.7%80 W · 348 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-28.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e49…ae9dbacked Yes12c2,728$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318.615324.5%13 W · 40 L-0.2wins0.00per pick25cpaid-29.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0db5…f3aabacked Yes7c2,566$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.63248.3%2 W · 22 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick5cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x55d0…f655backed Yes17c2,434$419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$419.1814036.4%51 W · 89 L+8.7wins+0.06per pick30cpaid-0.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xae7c…487ebacked Yes40c2,334$945 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94510528.6%30 W · 75 L+4.8wins+0.05per pick24cpaid+3.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes11c2,287$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.4212634.9%44 W · 82 L+8.8wins+0.07per pick28cpaid-3.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc44a…8da6backed Yes16c2,231$365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$364.827123.9%17 W · 54 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-20.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa91e…4e7fbacked Yes9c2,194$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.6720%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5922…3388backed Yes18c2,159$397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$396.511127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.15per pick43cpaid-53.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa9d7…538abacked Yes11c2,130$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.611827.8%5 W · 13 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick21cpaid+7.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9f2a…db11backed Yes25c2,073$521 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$520.59100%0 W · 10 L-2.0wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1bd9…c7f1backed Yes12c2,071$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc427…6f4dbacked Yes36c2,027$729 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$729.375745.6%26 W · 31 L+7.9wins+0.14per pick32cpaid+44%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes18c2,020$366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$365.5789617.1%153 W · 743 L-57.2wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1e85…8aaabacked Yes12c1,929$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2407517.3%13 W · 62 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick15cpaid-13.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2282…1051backed Yes4c1,855$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.793616.7%6 W · 30 L+3.0wins+0.08per pick8cpaid+39.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3f94…da32backed Yes25c1,809$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$459.783327.3%9 W · 24 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+73.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2aee…5175backed Yes12c1,678$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No70c1,634$1,145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$489.0458927.2%160 W · 429 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xedc2…ad9fbacked Yes9c1,577$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.4811844.1%52 W · 66 L+10.2wins+0.09per pick35cpaid+36.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes13c1,571$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.5635652.8%188 W · 168 L+14.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc1d4…8e51backed Yes14c1,512$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.467027.1%19 W · 51 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-24.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e5a…2afdbacked Yes12c1,499$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.121811.1%2 W · 16 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-48.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5242…7aa6backed Yes20c1,441$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.7440%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe8b5…3591backed Yes26c1,411$371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$370.62528%7 W · 18 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-31.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x952b…edfabacked No78c1,357$1,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$296.636475%48 W · 16 L+12.3wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+50%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0xf762…a8e6backed Yes21c1,272$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.0690%0 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe5d0…a6e5backed Yes16c1,259$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2014537.8%17 W · 28 L-0.1wins0.00per pick38cpaid-33.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e59…b2bebacked Yes24c1,225$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3005817.2%10 W · 48 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick17cpaid+97.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaec8…0f69backed Yes14c1,219$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.821747.1%8 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick41cpaid-15.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4498…078dbacked Yes17c1,174$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.8224.5%1 W · 21 L-3.7wins-0.17per pick21cpaid-91.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xbfb8…cf89backed No70c1,138$802 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$336.079348.4%45 W · 48 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbdcd…8226backed Yes18c1,136$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200825%2 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+65.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7acd…1086backed Yes2c1,117$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201488.1%12 W · 136 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick5cpaid+238.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3283…338bbacked Yes28c1,084$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed No51c1,066$547 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$519.3631241.7%130 W · 182 L+15.4wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+66.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3994…ff63backed Yes19c1,054$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.164214.3%6 W · 36 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick12cpaid+74.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c6d…f391backed Yes37c1,044$388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$388.111827.8%5 W · 13 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-32%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes14c1,037$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.1623420.9%49 W · 185 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-28.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb24d…c330backed Yes20c1,026$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.8990%0 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa88a…3e8cbacked Yes25c1,005$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.34325.6%11 W · 32 L+2.7wins+0.06per pick19cpaid+197.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfe5e…8054backed Yes7c1,003$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.095525.5%14 W · 41 L+3.6wins+0.07per pick19cpaid-33.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xedc0…99f3backed Yes25c1,000$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.53435.3%12 W · 22 L+3.7wins+0.11per pick24cpaid+39.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0f58…5ff2backed Yes12c1,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.286944.9%31 W · 38 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+22%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6db2…a781backed Yes13c1,000$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.8910043%43 W · 57 L+13.0wins+0.13per pick30cpaid+13.5%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x1fd2…21ebbacked Yes13c956.6$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120392.6%1 W · 38 L-3.7wins-0.10per pick12cpaid-96.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x40ac…ee4bbacked Yes20c938.05$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.921435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8095…0053backed Yes20c924.64$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.77633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-41.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes19c907.89$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.1811818.6%22 W · 96 L+6.8wins+0.06per pick13cpaid-30.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4ea6…b249backed Yes14c903.36$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.28129.6%24 W · 57 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+38.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f4e…5104backed Yes6c898.73$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5050%0 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes18c895.53$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.2447334%161 W · 312 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+13.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7e5…f6fcbacked Yes21c880.15$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.897116.9%12 W · 59 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-8.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0fc1…fd70backed Yes16c849.68$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.951338.5%5 W · 8 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick30cpaid+96.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9470…7112backed Yes6c813.67$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.22010%2 W · 18 L-2.2wins-0.11per pick21cpaid-57%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x61f0…529ebacked Yes24c801.19$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.744318.6%8 W · 35 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick17cpaid-14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes18c796.9$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.611,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa85a…586fbacked Yes13c787.77$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001040%4 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-22.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes8c768.15$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.567135.6%40 W · 673 L+11.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x601d…f618backed Yes15c728.04$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.581020%2 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-49.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2dc2…1e51backed Yes12c710$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.59400%0 W · 40 L-3.5wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x177d…0867backed Yes14c705.84$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001833.3%6 W · 12 L+2.1wins+0.12per pick22cpaid+59.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd84b…0df3backed Yes16c704.72$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.674953.1%26 W · 23 L+9.2wins+0.19per pick34cpaid+82.2%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x7aa8…5909backed Yes13c700.56$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.571225%3 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-58.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe471…c87cbacked Yes11c700$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.523525.5%60 W · 175 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc1db…838dbacked Yes30c699.77$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.233411.8%4 W · 30 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick10cpaid+18.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30c8…840fbacked Yes15c674.6$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-71.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f7e…c962backed Yes48c662.27$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.91612.5%2 W · 14 L-1.8wins-0.11per pick24cpaid-76%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe499…88fabacked Yes9c641.32$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.6130%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6709…af18backed Yes20c600.16$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.56248.4%30 W · 32 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes12c597.75$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.8119428.9%56 W · 138 L+0.1wins0.00per pick29cpaid-23.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7124…70c1backed Yes17c585$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.455736.8%21 W · 36 L-5.5wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-31.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xa0bc…d428backed Yes9c574.65$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.7248630.5%148 W · 338 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x40b7…3120backed Yes9c564.13$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick28cpaid-73.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 35 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.