Middle East · resolved market
Will Iran strike Jordan again in March?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0a1c5126237db906eb0ad0cef3742091cc0589a664dd628d7feee5c8cd6a1ac9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,965
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,833
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,965 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 96 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed No | 31c | 1,266$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395 | 423 | 29.1%123 W · 300 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91dd…6780backed Yes | 53c | 1,064$565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498.77 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddf7…5122backed No | 49c | 1,025$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.25 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce65…66fdbacked Yes | 36c | 973$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$622.72 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1cb…933ebacked No | 64c | 973$623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$622.72 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 40c | 898.33$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.2 | 77 | 9.1%7 W · 70 L | -7.4wins | -0.10per pick | 19cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2983…b2e8backed Yes | 78c | 868.46$675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.44 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 62c | 800$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 54c | 602.43$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.87 | 207 | 49.3%102 W · 105 L | -23.0wins | -0.11per pick | 60cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 35c | 575.84$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.71 | 342 | 34.8%119 W · 223 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d56…574abacked No | 18c | 566.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 19cpaid | +83.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…c0a4backed Yes | 37c | 525.89$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.18 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1100…815ebacked Yes | 51c | 522$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.78 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8132…a491backed Yes | 51c | 503$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.47 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d50…1f5dbacked Yes | 56c | 484.85$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.37 | 47 | 27.7%13 W · 34 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c2…73bfbacked Yes | 50c | 401.78$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.78 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54a7…881bbacked No | 66c | 383.21$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.86 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | -16.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa1…f5a1backed Yes | 41c | 350$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.5 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked No | 45c | 347.49$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.72 | 113 | 57.5%65 W · 48 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x769d…05bfbacked Yes | 47c | 299.99$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.99 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +6.8wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f04…e996backed No | 17c | 291.3$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb8…cf89backed Yes | 49c | 287.62$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.56 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ddf…98f0backed No | 63c | 249.66$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff05…0a63backed Yes | 35c | 244.06$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.81 | 104 | 28.8%30 W · 74 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14b8…81a9backed No | 18c | 239.9$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.88 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 15c | 230$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed No | 64c | 222$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.08 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed Yes | 49c | 195.41$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.19 | 287 | 34.5%99 W · 188 L | +21.3wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac5c…7b5bbacked No | 52c | 194.02$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -3.2wins | -0.21per pick | 35cpaid | -74%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…a320backed No | 68c | 193$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.04 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +3.2wins | +0.24per pick | 52cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1c3d…2ff5backed No | 44c | 180$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.4 | 128 | 43%55 W · 73 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x409a…4e8fbacked Yes | 32c | 173$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.64 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b42…9fc4backed No | 11c | 172.27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -4.3wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc89b…f512backed Yes | 51c | 172$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.28 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1016…c866backed Yes | 46c | 165.12$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.9 | 77 | 22.1%17 W · 60 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e69…200ebacked No | 59c | 146.32$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.33 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c64…cb26backed No | 17c | 141.56$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.74 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -51%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1892…1b4cbacked Yes | 36c | 139.22$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.22 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe074…10e2backed Yes | 37c | 135.41$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.41 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +139.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 46c | 135.35$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.38 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…0acfbacked No | 18c | 135.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c57…f939backed No | 23c | 128.66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d1…694bbacked Yes | 54c | 119.26$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.86 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.28per pick | 59cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e31…454dbacked Yes | 79c | 119.05$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 60 | 66.7%40 W · 20 L | +7.3wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x117d…156cbacked Yes | 36c | 118.73$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.73 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa606…dda2backed No | 26c | 115.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked Yes | 30c | 114.46$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.12 | 306 | 49%150 W · 156 L | +77.8wins | +0.25per pick | 24cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 76+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0xed5a…c744backed No | 54c | 112.25$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.6 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…8b91backed No | 19c | 104.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8df9…468cbacked Yes | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 142 | 27.5%39 W · 103 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13f4…59b0backed No | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2924…dcdebacked No | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -51%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x083f…a55fbacked No | 22c | 91.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb4f…4745backed No | 66c | 83.33$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +3.7wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9f…624cbacked Yes | 36c | 74.58$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.73 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…78ccbacked No | 68c | 73.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 60cpaid | -67%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…b919backed Yes | 42c | 71.73$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.73 | 148 | 54.1%80 W · 68 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 50c | 70$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.3 | 317 | 28.7%91 W · 226 L | -35.7wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4f04…6a54backed No | 53c | 67.53$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.87 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9cc…31ddbacked Yes | 54c | 63.83$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.36 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec20…c74bbacked No | 50c | 59.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.93 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x454c…4fcdbacked No | 18c | 57.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 36c | 55.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 323 | 45.2%146 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 44c | 55.25$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.85 | 356 | 52.8%188 W · 168 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf099…761dbacked No | 67c | 51.37$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f2…e5fabacked No | 45c | 50.24$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.61 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +114.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6211…e2fabacked No | 50c | 50.16$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc63b…da3fbacked Yes | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 111 | 53.2%59 W · 52 L | +11.8wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 261 | 38.7%101 W · 160 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9934…6078backed Yes | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 75 | 48%36 W · 39 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 189 | 29.1%55 W · 134 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x310d…bed0backed Yes | 42c | 47.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.24 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa3…7c38backed No | 56c | 45.26$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 34c | 45.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xcdcf…144fbacked Yes | 60c | 44.98$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.98 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +73.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fe…1f3ebacked No | 46c | 44.9$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 216 | 31.9%69 W · 147 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccdd…a831backed Yes | 34c | 44.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.12 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b50…3ca9backed No | 68c | 44.12$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71f8…4789backed Yes | 49c | 43.05$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.96 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf503…39e2backed No | 49c | 41.94$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.66 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x673a…e805backed No | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +152.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 67c | 37.74$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.64 | 89 | 29.2%26 W · 63 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ee0…1006backed Yes | 36c | 35.93$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.06 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49f3…369fbacked Yes | 35c | 34.31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x983a…ca05backed Yes | 38c | 34.29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.26 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa133…184fbacked Yes | 34c | 32.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.35 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf164…31b1backed No | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3eb…376cbacked No | 51c | 29.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x870a…bd43backed No | 67c | 29.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 85 | 30.6%26 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d73…75a0backed No | 59c | 26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 79c | 24.01$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.08 | 396 | 21%83 W · 313 L | -57.0wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a2…b489backed No | 64c | 23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -3.5wins | -0.51per pick | 65cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6f08…54d3backed Yes | 75c | 22.94$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.73 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | +7.5wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcb9f…b445backed No | 50c | 20.15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 67cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacc0…3748backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +92.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb2dc…b433backed No | 66c | 19.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 35 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Iran strike Jordan again in March?this page
- Will Iran strike Afghanistan in March?No won
- Will Iran strike Armenia by March 31?No won
- Will Iran strike Azerbaijan by March 31?No won
- Will Iran strike Bahrain again in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Bahrain in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Cyprus in March?No won
- Will Iran strike Germany by March 31?No won
- Will Iran strike Hungary by March 31?No won
- Will Iran strike India in March?No won
- Will Iran strike Iraq again in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Iraq in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Israel again in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Israel in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Italy by March 31?No won
- Will Iran strike Jordan in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Jordan in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Kuwait again in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Kuwait in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Lebanon in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Oman again in March?No won
- Will Iran strike Oman in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Pakistan in March?No won
- Will Iran strike Poland by March 31?No won
- Will Iran strike Qatar again in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Qatar in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Saudi Arabia again in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Saudi Arabia in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Syria in March?No won
- Will Iran strike Turkey in March?No won
- Will Iran strike UAE again in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike UAE in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Ukraine by March 31?No won
- Will Iran strike Yemen in March?No won
- Will Iran strike the United Kingdom by March 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.