TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Iran strike Jordan again in March?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$26,965
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$27,833

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,965 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 96 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa9ac…c5d1backed No31c1,266$395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39542329.1%123 W · 300 L+14.7wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-12%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x91dd…6780backed Yes53c1,064$565 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$498.771330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+7.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xddf7…5122backed No49c1,025$502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502.25757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+18.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce65…66fdbacked Yes36c973$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$622.721457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick49cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe1cb…933ebacked No64c973$623 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$622.723246.9%15 W · 17 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+13.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed No40c898.33$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$357.2779.1%7 W · 70 L-7.4wins-0.10per pick19cpaid-73.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2983…b2e8backed Yes78c868.46$675 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.44955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick48cpaid-11.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No62c800$496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49664339.3%253 W · 390 L-59.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No54c602.43$328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$327.8720749.3%102 W · 105 L-23.0wins-0.11per pick60cpaid-24.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes35c575.84$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$373.7134234.8%119 W · 223 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d56…574abacked No18c566.52$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick19cpaid+83.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52d9…c0a4backed Yes37c525.89$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$331.184216.7%7 W · 35 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-59.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1100…815ebacked Yes51c522$266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.78742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-23.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8132…a491backed Yes51c503$257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.471346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d50…1f5dbacked Yes56c484.85$269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.374727.7%13 W · 34 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick27cpaid+30.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa7c2…73bfbacked Yes50c401.78$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.782254.5%12 W · 10 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+10.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x54a7…881bbacked No66c383.21$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.865532.7%18 W · 37 L-16.9wins-0.31per pick64cpaid-53.2%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x3fa1…f5a1backed Yes41c350$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.55549.1%27 W · 28 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+19.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x33db…417abacked No45c347.49$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.7211357.5%65 W · 48 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x769d…05bfbacked Yes47c299.99$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.996753.7%36 W · 31 L+6.8wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+52.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0f04…e996backed No17c291.3$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4920%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfb8…cf89backed Yes49c287.62$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.569348.4%45 W · 48 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ddf…98f0backed No63c249.66$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.2910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xff05…0a63backed Yes35c244.06$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.8110428.8%30 W · 74 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick25cpaid-10.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x14b8…81a9backed No18c239.9$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.881330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-45.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed No15c230$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.542120.9%88 W · 333 L-0.3wins0.00per pick21cpaid-39.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe738…df65backed No64c222$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.0835355.5%196 W · 157 L+36.1wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+20.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x4478…02a4backed Yes49c195.41$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.1928734.5%99 W · 188 L+21.3wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+0.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xac5c…7b5bbacked No52c194.02$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001513.3%2 W · 13 L-3.2wins-0.21per pick35cpaid-74%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4a59…a320backed No68c193$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.041376.9%10 W · 3 L+3.2wins+0.24per pick52cpaid+57.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1c3d…2ff5backed No44c180$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.412843%55 W · 73 L+6.1wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+24.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x409a…4e8fbacked Yes32c173$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.64771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick55cpaid+62.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0b42…9fc4backed No11c172.27$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.523528.6%10 W · 25 L-4.3wins-0.12per pick41cpaid-52.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc89b…f512backed Yes51c172$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.281050%5 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1016…c866backed Yes46c165.12$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.97722.1%17 W · 60 L0.0wins0.00per pick22cpaid-38.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e69…200ebacked No59c146.32$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.331747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-17.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c64…cb26backed No17c141.56$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.74933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.17per pick51cpaid-51%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1892…1b4cbacked Yes36c139.22$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.223040%12 W · 18 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+21.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe074…10e2backed Yes37c135.41$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.412347.8%11 W · 12 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+139.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No46c135.35$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.3886542.3%366 W · 499 L-3.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28e8…0acfbacked No18c135.31$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253452.9%18 W · 16 L+2.7wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+10.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8c57…f939backed No23c128.66$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306254.8%34 W · 28 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+11.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd8d1…694bbacked Yes54c119.26$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.86887.5%7 W · 1 L+2.3wins+0.28per pick59cpaid+45.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7e31…454dbacked Yes79c119.05$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256066.7%40 W · 20 L+7.3wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+6.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x117d…156cbacked Yes36c118.73$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.732065%13 W · 7 L+1.9wins+0.09per pick56cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa606…dda2backed No26c115.38$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3040%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d4b…ca7abacked Yes30c114.46$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.1230649%150 W · 156 L+77.8wins+0.25per pick24cpaid+105.8%equal weight76+0.24 edge/pick
0xed5a…c744backed No54c112.25$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.62040%8 W · 12 L-0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid+30.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6297…8b91backed No19c104.07$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-48.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8df9…468cbacked Yes68c100$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3214227.5%39 W · 103 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-19.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x13f4…59b0backed No53c100$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.5520%1 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.23per pick43cpaid-58.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2924…dcdebacked No65c100$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-51%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x083f…a55fbacked No22c91.46$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207335.6%26 W · 47 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb4f…4745backed No66c83.33$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$552755.6%15 W · 12 L+3.7wins+0.14per pick42cpaid+17.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xaf9f…624cbacked Yes36c74.58$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.732520%5 W · 20 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfecc…78ccbacked No68c73.43$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50425%1 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.35per pick60cpaid-67%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc662…b919backed Yes42c71.73$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.7314854.1%80 W · 68 L+9.9wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+15.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No50c70$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.331728.7%91 W · 226 L-35.7wins-0.11per pick40cpaid-48.7%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x4f04…6a54backed No53c67.53$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.872634.6%9 W · 17 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+55.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9cc…31ddbacked Yes54c63.83$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.363100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+56.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xec20…c74bbacked No50c59.86$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.932948.3%14 W · 15 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x454c…4fcdbacked No18c57.34$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.520%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No36c55.34$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6532345.2%146 W · 177 L+9.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-18%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes44c55.25$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.8535652.8%188 W · 168 L+14.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf099…761dbacked No67c51.37$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb4f2…e5fabacked No45c50.24$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.619051.1%46 W · 44 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+114.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6211…e2fabacked No50c50.16$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.31per pick56cpaid-51.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc63b…da3fbacked Yes69c50$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.511153.2%59 W · 52 L+11.8wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+45.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No26c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1326138.7%101 W · 160 L-11.6wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-24.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9934…6078backed Yes65c50$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.57548%36 W · 39 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid+9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes70c50$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1518929.1%55 W · 134 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-32.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x310d…bed0backed Yes42c47.24$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.246944.9%31 W · 38 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-8.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0fa3…7c38backed No56c45.26$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.27250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+47.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No34c45.06$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1485725.2%216 W · 641 L-115.1wins-0.13per pick39cpaid-43.7%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0xcdcf…144fbacked Yes60c44.98$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.982138.1%8 W · 13 L-0.1wins0.00per pick38cpaid+73.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa7fe…1f3ebacked No46c44.9$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.8521631.9%69 W · 147 L-0.7wins0.00per pick32cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xccdd…a831backed Yes34c44.12$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.122343.5%10 W · 13 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b50…3ca9backed No68c44.12$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-44.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x71f8…4789backed Yes49c43.05$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.96825%2 W · 6 L-2.6wins-0.32per pick57cpaid-53.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf503…39e2backed No49c41.94$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.663043.3%13 W · 17 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick38cpaid-18.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x673a…e805backed No51c39.22$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201513.3%2 W · 13 L-1.7wins-0.11per pick25cpaid+152.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8444…1cf9backed Yes67c37.74$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.648929.2%26 W · 63 L-6.7wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-41.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9ee0…1006backed Yes36c35.93$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.062025%5 W · 15 L-0.1wins0.00per pick25cpaid-48.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x49f3…369fbacked Yes35c34.31$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+185.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x983a…ca05backed Yes38c34.29$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.263839.5%15 W · 23 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+8.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa133…184fbacked Yes34c32.35$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.35540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick30cpaid-7.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf164…31b1backed No66c30.3$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc3eb…376cbacked No51c29.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.32860.7%17 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick61cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x870a…bd43backed No67c29.83$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208530.6%26 W · 59 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-27.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d73…75a0backed No59c26$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.282365.2%15 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick67cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes79c24.01$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.0839621%83 W · 313 L-57.0wins-0.14per pick35cpaid-64.1%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0xb1a2…b489backed No64c23$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.72714.3%1 W · 6 L-3.5wins-0.51per pick65cpaid-80.2%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x6f08…54d3backed Yes75c22.94$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.735961%36 W · 23 L+7.5wins+0.13per pick48cpaid+28.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xcb9f…b445backed No50c20.15$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.19per pick67cpaid+27.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xacc0…3748backed No64c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.83060%18 W · 12 L+3.7wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+92.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xb2dc…b433backed No66c19.6$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134645.7%21 W · 25 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick49cpaid+35.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 35 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.