Middle East · resolved market
Will Iran strike Iraq in March?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9638952d48500ef7415592aec57acba294626195b01067ee6257eb72b737afca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $223,064
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $223,064 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed No | 0c | 47,362$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.67 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 1c | 35,228$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.16 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ea…b02abacked No | 0c | 15,995$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.74 | 105 | 13.3%14 W · 91 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed No | 1c | 8,500$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.7 | 322 | 43.5%140 W · 182 L | +13.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xceff…dae4backed No | 4c | 7,065$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.53 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe598…a0a8backed No | 1c | 6,162$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.34 | 56 | 23.2%13 W · 43 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82cf…0998backed No | 1c | 5,967$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.77 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 5c | 4,524$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.4 | 77 | 9.1%7 W · 70 L | -7.4wins | -0.10per pick | 19cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5449…992bbacked No | 1c | 4,418$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.88 | 171 | 42.7%73 W · 98 L | +12.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed No | 0c | 4,000$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 199 | 30.7%61 W · 138 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf603…82f1backed No | 1c | 4,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.59 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5453…65cebacked No | 3c | 3,983$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84bd…e30ebacked No | 2c | 3,463$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.51 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 1c | 3,460$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.21 | 242 | 34.3%83 W · 159 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a4…a4babacked No | 1c | 2,891$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.05 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x738b…6dc9backed No | 4c | 2,610$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.78 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a9…5976backed No | 1c | 2,458$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | +6.9wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e5…f6fcbacked No | 3c | 2,284$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.45 | 71 | 16.9%12 W · 59 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed No | 5c | 2,249$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.93 | 120 | 23.3%28 W · 92 L | +10.9wins | +0.09per pick | 14cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed No | 1c | 2,123$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.74 | 139 | 18.7%26 W · 113 L | -13.9wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfee6…bb35backed No | 11c | 2,093$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.2 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +112.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1b6…dfc1backed No | 10c | 2,083$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.76 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed No | 1c | 2,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked No | 7c | 1,843$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.79 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 4c | 1,826$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.62 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 10c | 1,723$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.22 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03f0…63e0backed No | 1c | 1,613$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 88 | 18.2%16 W · 72 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed No | 4c | 1,587$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.08 | 287 | 34.5%99 W · 188 L | +21.3wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed No | 9c | 1,515$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.7 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf170…3d12backed No | 2c | 1,387$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.17 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x638c…7d52backed No | 8c | 1,259$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c38…919dbacked No | 1c | 1,250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5bd…ceaabacked No | 1c | 1,235$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 215 | 37.7%81 W · 134 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf86d…198dbacked No | 1c | 1,224$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed No | 3c | 1,200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.7 | 371 | 7%26 W · 345 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 3c | 1,166$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.32 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f57…a8aabacked No | 2c | 1,067$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a7a…c0abbacked No | 1c | 1,065$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -21%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf167…0e4dbacked No | 1c | 1,051$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 4c | 1,048$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.92 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6138…97a0backed No | 9c | 1,010$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.25 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked No | 4c | 1,000$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 207 | 49.3%102 W · 105 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 2c | 968.39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.77 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34d9…9367backed No | 2c | 898.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +61.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb7…cf03backed No | 6c | 828.81$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | +205.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked No | 3c | 710$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 310 | 3.9%12 W · 298 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 4c | 622$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.36 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bfa…e053backed No | 3c | 619.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8b…1614backed No | 15c | 594.72$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.39 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf44…4d45backed No | 78c | 524.54$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.6 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e82…a88dbacked No | 17c | 513.41$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.27 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa6…3e62backed No | 10c | 499.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.8 | 313 | 44.1%138 W · 175 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf762…a8e6backed No | 7c | 488.8$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.68 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked No | 8c | 474.77$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.57 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a2…54c2backed No | 5c | 461.56$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.14 | 103 | 33%34 W · 69 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked No | 5c | 393.34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 126 | 16.7%21 W · 105 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +41%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ffa…8453backed No | 5c | 391.12$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.55 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcda6…3f07backed No | 17c | 369.99$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.2 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3b5…b7acbacked No | 8c | 344.45$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x259c…7c55backed No | 3c | 307.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d51dbacked No | 4c | 299.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 47 | 17%8 W · 39 L | -4.4wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8c…ad4bbacked No | 10c | 277.22$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.17 | 90 | 40%36 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d24…2e44backed No | 15c | 270$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.48 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7744…23f2backed No | 5c | 220.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 63 | 41.3%26 W · 37 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…2cd1backed No | 6c | 204.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 21c | 200$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8296…e9cbbacked No | 15c | 194.67$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.96 | 38 | 15.8%6 W · 32 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 11c | 194.08$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 396 | 21%83 W · 313 L | -57.0wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc173…20f5backed No | 7c | 186.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3925…c094backed No | 8c | 177.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 70 | 52.9%37 W · 33 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8aaa…51dfbacked Yes | 80c | 167.93$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.59 | 79 | 38%30 W · 49 L | +9.6wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0234…7660backed No | 12c | 165.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10b2…4cebbacked No | 8c | 155.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 242 | 24.4%59 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf8…b7ebbacked No | 12c | 147.56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90b9…1951backed No | 8c | 141.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe840…d61cbacked No | 8c | 128.91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a90…2ff9backed Yes | 54c | 125$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.25 | 284 | 38.7%110 W · 174 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5089…937dbacked No | 25c | 120.94$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48ec…8f36backed Yes | 43c | 115.84$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.8 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | +9.6wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 14c | 103.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ceb…db9dbacked No | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed No | 11c | 95.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 486 | 30.5%148 W · 338 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a35…78e2backed No | 21c | 93.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93e2…92b9backed No | 13c | 86.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6470…aac7backed Yes | 79c | 75.67$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.67 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x370c…3eb1backed Yes | 79c | 71.25$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 88 | 42%37 W · 51 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2840…8cffbacked No | 17c | 70$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 20cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed Yes | 71c | 60.39$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.51 | 190 | 56.3%107 W · 83 L | +16.9wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x86d6…8a05backed Yes | 78c | 54$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +4.3wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +143.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x03d0…d647backed Yes | 28c | 52.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.76 | 103 | 41.7%43 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dda…6e0dbacked Yes | 21c | 51.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.97 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb8…cf89backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee68…8510backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55bf…b569backed Yes | 76c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.55 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04a3…7feabacked Yes | 50c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -28%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb609…85f8backed No | 50c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f37…011bbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb4d…e39ebacked Yes | 79c | 13.61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.86 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +4.0wins | +0.25per pick | 56cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 35 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Iran strike Iraq in March?this page
- Will Iran strike Afghanistan in March?No won
- Will Iran strike Armenia by March 31?No won
- Will Iran strike Azerbaijan by March 31?No won
- Will Iran strike Bahrain again in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Bahrain in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Cyprus in March?No won
- Will Iran strike Germany by March 31?No won
- Will Iran strike Hungary by March 31?No won
- Will Iran strike India in March?No won
- Will Iran strike Iraq again in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Israel again in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Israel in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Italy by March 31?No won
- Will Iran strike Jordan again in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Jordan in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Jordan in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Kuwait again in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Kuwait in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Lebanon in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Oman again in March?No won
- Will Iran strike Oman in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Pakistan in March?No won
- Will Iran strike Poland by March 31?No won
- Will Iran strike Qatar again in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Qatar in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Saudi Arabia again in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Saudi Arabia in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Syria in March?No won
- Will Iran strike Turkey in March?No won
- Will Iran strike UAE again in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike UAE in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Ukraine by March 31?No won
- Will Iran strike Yemen in March?No won
- Will Iran strike the United Kingdom by March 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.