TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Iran strike Iraq again in March?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$41,042
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$40,775

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,042 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x91dd…6780backed Yes76c1,688$1,283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$405.141330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+7.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x05b1…8f35backed No20c1,505$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4934…5951backed No3c1,500$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4510132.7%33 W · 68 L+10.6wins+0.11per pick22cpaid+37.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5218…3df7backed No29c1,026$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300825%2 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-62%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd32…3eabbacked No17c1,002$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e31…454dbacked Yes62c965.51$602 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$363.936066.7%40 W · 20 L+7.3wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+6.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc851…cd2abacked Yes77c933.12$715 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.287538.7%29 W · 46 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-17.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc326…1db1backed No38c911.78$349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.1210558.1%61 W · 44 L+4.4wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed No21c745.27$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.92779.1%7 W · 70 L-7.4wins-0.10per pick19cpaid-73.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9458…c97fbacked No13c739.76$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.65933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-57.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d0e…9818backed Yes54c636.74$345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$292.01933.3%3 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.12per pick21cpaid+118%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xab21…4b87backed No57c607$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344.78633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.23per pick56cpaid-49.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcb25…5b6bbacked Yes43c607$262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$344.782142.9%9 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick47cpaid+20.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcbf7…0b92backed No11c554.69$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601040%4 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick32cpaid-1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1016…c866backed No17c525.61$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.117722.1%17 W · 60 L0.0wins0.00per pick22cpaid-38.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33db…417abacked No29c502.73$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.4111357.5%65 W · 48 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x769d…05bfbacked Yes74c461.71$342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.336753.7%36 W · 31 L+6.8wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+52.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb925…6f23backed No13c457.64$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6060%0 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x035f…33ebbacked No13c450$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.2711016.4%18 W · 92 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-58.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xed5a…c744backed No45c389.5$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.822040%8 W · 12 L-0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid+30.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5074…0b95backed No10c383.41$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3096…58a3backed Yes78c381.93$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.128142%34 W · 47 L-5.1wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-29.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5aa1…d9b7backed Yes53c379.05$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.052222.7%5 W · 17 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick32cpaid-60.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x958d…3501backed No20c372.96$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7322262.2%138 W · 84 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick62cpaid-2.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2543…b6f4backed No10c356.14$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.3850%0 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1002…2747backed No19c300$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc18b…3917backed No4c299.97$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131910.5%2 W · 17 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick13cpaid-74.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaaa9…9072backed No13c278.02$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$366456.3%36 W · 28 L+8.7wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+40%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x0f04…e996backed No18c276.39$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4920%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2236…6e0cbacked No36c274.61$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No14c252.14$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.8836035.3%127 W · 233 L-30.4wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-27.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x69cf…6575backed No8c246.72$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc31a…94f7backed No34c240$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.52862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.15per pick48cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7172…102abacked No47c235.17$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.2wins-0.24per pick46cpaid-68.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8bcc…8e7bbacked No19c234.87$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.5320%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x74d2…b1c7backed No10c210$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick33cpaid-44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No36c199.16$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.2534234.8%119 W · 223 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb5fb…db5cbacked Yes66c190$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.794634.8%16 W · 30 L-7.3wins-0.16per pick51cpaid-44.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xf164…31b1backed No13c170.46$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.0830%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9764…a691backed No34c160$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.540%0 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3fa1…f5a1backed Yes56c150$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.855549.1%27 W · 28 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+19.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0c1…8440backed No12c142.11$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8444…1cf9backed No34c110$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.528929.2%26 W · 63 L-6.7wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-41.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x27db…25f1backed No37c108.71$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403836.8%14 W · 24 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a3e…39b2backed No25c101.89$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.35250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x052c…4793backed No34c100$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.8616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick35cpaid-51%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4133…ea5dbacked Yes75c100$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.183250%16 W · 16 L+4.2wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+48.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc2be…66b0backed No38c100$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$383148.4%15 W · 16 L+3.1wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+22.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9f66…3a50backed Yes70c99.55$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.5518246.2%84 W · 98 L-15.4wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x083f…a55fbacked No21c97.28$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207335.6%26 W · 47 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec20…c74bbacked No16c93.12$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152948.3%14 W · 15 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac72…07c1backed No13c85.17$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.73225%8 W · 24 L+2.4wins+0.08per pick17cpaid+72.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8b72…6dbebacked Yes52c81.62$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.9522846.1%105 W · 123 L+22.6wins+0.10per pick36cpaid+17.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes77c69.21$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.877636.9%286 W · 490 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-35.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No16c69.16$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3539621%83 W · 313 L-57.0wins-0.14per pick35cpaid-64.1%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0x645a…fd84backed No19c68.43$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1324759.1%146 W · 101 L-1.1wins0.00per pick60cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x69db…7aa8backed Yes66c63.54$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.581100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f08…54d3backed Yes79c63.28$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.295961%36 W · 23 L+7.5wins+0.13per pick48cpaid+28.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa4de…3920backed No34c60$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.55837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+11.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc717…7c96backed No38c60$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.8366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick64cpaid-13.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes61c59.89$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.2335652.8%188 W · 168 L+14.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1892…1b4cbacked Yes53c56.69$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.693040%12 W · 18 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+21.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No32c52.5$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.7626138.7%101 W · 160 L-11.6wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-24.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdfb8…8326backed No55c52.21$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.54757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-17%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86eb…5864backed No61c50$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.351723.5%4 W · 13 L-4.7wins-0.28per pick51cpaid-61.4%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0xf75a…ee78backed No37c50$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b50…3ca9backed No64c46.8$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-44.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7755…25ccbacked No26c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x983a…ca05backed No36c40$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.493839.5%15 W · 23 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+8.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcff6…992bbacked Yes37c37.92$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.93333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x22d6…f8b3backed Yes66c37.88$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.889257.6%53 W · 39 L+7.8wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xc355…61d4backed Yes75c33.15$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.15742.9%3 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-39.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb47d…fb65backed Yes77c32$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.491376.9%10 W · 3 L+4.1wins+0.32per pick45cpaid+56.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes77c31.23$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.0885725.2%216 W · 641 L-115.1wins-0.13per pick39cpaid-43.7%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x870a…bd43backed No65c30.96$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208530.6%26 W · 59 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-27.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe5bd…f03ebacked Yes80c30$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$612328.5%35 W · 88 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-35.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f92…15d2backed Yes64c28.11$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.163737.8%14 W · 23 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-0.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe879…6d22backed Yes78c26$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.726653%35 W · 31 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe27e…a9d0backed Yes60c25$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105550.9%28 W · 27 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+5.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3689…e964backed Yes66c24.28$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.281100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc877…05b4backed Yes69c22$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.886342.9%27 W · 36 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8dc5…312dbacked Yes59c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b26…cf9abacked Yes64c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.161942.1%8 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b2d…cb6bbacked Yes77c16$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.65366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+34.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef9b…3a3ebacked No64c15.63$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102755.6%15 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick56cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 35 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.