Middle East · resolved market
Will Iran strike Jordan in March?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd367e32aae7f00189a8557dad6ddde9f848851c58a8b1d71046d62ddff981f16
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $66,493
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $66,493 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 145 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6138…97a0backed No | 21c | 2,500$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530.5 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e31…454dbacked Yes | 77c | 2,365$1,822 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$542.07 | 60 | 66.7%40 W · 20 L | +7.3wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf762…a8e6backed No | 11c | 2,158$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.51 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa21d…f351backed No | 29c | 1,744$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.24per pick | 62cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 75c | 1,654$1,249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.73 | 276 | 43.5%120 W · 156 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b2…26b9backed Yes | 76c | 1,353$1,033 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.52 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca44…6d4ebacked Yes | 67c | 1,144$765 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.27 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6992…6c1dbacked Yes | 72c | 1,100$792 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308 | 222 | 27%60 W · 162 L | +17.8wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +13%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 26c | 999.97$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.99 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9419…a40fbacked No | 18c | 748.06$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.21 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -29%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43bf…c53abacked Yes | 77c | 726.68$562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.98 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf60…a6f5backed No | 28c | 671.43$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81cf…091ebacked Yes | 68c | 655.34$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.05 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 23c | 618.67$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.98 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 23c | 615.52$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.36 | 77 | 9.1%7 W · 70 L | -7.4wins | -0.10per pick | 19cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xccf8…ded2backed No | 34c | 614$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.76 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6463…e8fdbacked No | 17c | 577.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcda6…3f07backed No | 13c | 509.98$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 22c | 505.53$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.72 | 242 | 34.3%83 W · 159 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4613…8c44backed Yes | 66c | 500$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 21c | 478.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.84 | 292 | 54.8%160 W · 132 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8c…26fdbacked No | 34c | 465$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9454…7f72backed No | 27c | 461.59$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.46 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.7wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc315…6411backed Yes | 66c | 457$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.38 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +26%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…cd36backed No | 34c | 457$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.38 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2b…a065backed Yes | 66c | 453$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.02 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab73…d8e6backed No | 19c | 430.72$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…1dcfbacked Yes | 66c | 424$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.16 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7add…f9f4backed Yes | 77c | 417.12$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.88 | 238 | 39.9%95 W · 143 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked Yes | 64c | 416.65$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.14 | 113 | 57.5%65 W · 48 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5f…81c0backed No | 34c | 412$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.08 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e6…f35cbacked No | 25c | 402.04$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 186 | 39.8%74 W · 112 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21a1…2f95backed No | 12c | 400$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x396f…7f78backed Yes | 65c | 400$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.31 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 24c | 385.26$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.72 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 18c | 351.31$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.16 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 29c | 343.98$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.47 | 323 | 45.2%146 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb54…86bebacked Yes | 55c | 324.62$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.08 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1cb…933ebacked Yes | 66c | 324$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.16 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5453…65cebacked No | 31c | 323.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb229…8e56backed Yes | 65c | 321.94$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.9 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d24…2e44backed No | 13c | 307.69$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f8…7819backed No | 27c | 300.8$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.26per pick | 39cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5660…0593backed Yes | 67c | 300$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 4c | 290.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf92a…9134backed Yes | 66c | 290$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.6 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1b6…dfc1backed No | 17c | 287.51$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 29c | 284.37$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.81 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 58c | 284.15$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.27 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6718…91bcbacked No | 17c | 274.58$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa312…8814backed No | 9c | 264$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda9e…ac09backed No | 28c | 250$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.3 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 8c | 248.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbed…804ebacked No | 39c | 229.99$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.7 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 45c | 227.16$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.22 | 342 | 34.8%119 W · 223 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked No | 32c | 223.99$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.16 | 362 | 27.9%101 W · 261 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa95c…39abbacked No | 18c | 202$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.84 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked Yes | 64c | 200$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 92 | 34.8%32 W · 60 L | -7.9wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked Yes | 65c | 199.99$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 215 | 31.2%67 W · 148 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef3…e35bbacked No | 36c | 196$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.16 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 38c | 195.2$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.13 | 207 | 49.3%102 W · 105 L | -23.0wins | -0.11per pick | 60cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4044…8de5backed No | 35c | 189.93$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.48 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +4.0wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfb97…9febbacked No | 14c | 189.18$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.49 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | +66.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 16c | 183.31$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.83 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x056c…5066backed No | 21c | 168.4$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.87 | 132 | 28%37 W · 95 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19c1…a397backed No | 37c | 158.26$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54f8…1f57backed Yes | 64c | 156.88$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.88 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +5.2wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xceca…3f67backed Yes | 77c | 155.84$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.84 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 24c | 154.89$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.44 | 317 | 28.7%91 W · 226 L | -35.7wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…5bc1backed No | 36c | 151.67$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.17 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +5.6wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfa74…d631backed Yes | 66c | 151.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.49 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed Yes | 79c | 150$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 382 | 47.6%182 W · 200 L | +37.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x844a…5f53backed Yes | 76c | 150$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac5c…7b5bbacked No | 33c | 149.92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -3.2wins | -0.21per pick | 35cpaid | -74%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7b9e…d60ebacked Yes | 74c | 148.21$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.21 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 36cpaid | -75.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b3…501cbacked Yes | 68c | 140.15$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.45 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff7…d747backed Yes | 67c | 136.8$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.43 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x641b…5433backed Yes | 77c | 136$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.68 | 60 | 60%36 W · 24 L | +7.9wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +125.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c3…68d9backed Yes | 76c | 131.9$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.9 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa927…4847backed Yes | 77c | 130.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.44 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed No | 18c | 130.09$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.42 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | +12.1wins | +0.10per pick | 13cpaid | +2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe699…8790backed Yes | 64c | 114$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.04 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab58…f788backed Yes | 65c | 108.41$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.94 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57ea…e9e7backed No | 28c | 105.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x714f…66d5backed No | 19c | 105.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 97 | 39.2%38 W · 59 L | +9.5wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x90b9…1951backed No | 10c | 105.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47e7…7c61backed No | 21c | 101.32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 115 | 54.8%63 W · 52 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…821fbacked Yes | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…ad1bbacked Yes | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 248 | 39.5%98 W · 150 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…bf3dbacked Yes | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 183 | 38.3%70 W · 113 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 29c | 99.7$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09c5…9e8abacked No | 41c | 94.48$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac8f…feddbacked Yes | 62c | 90$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 210 | 34.3%72 W · 138 L | +9.3wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd113…7fe7backed Yes | 77c | 90$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.57 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6709…af18backed Yes | 75c | 83.97$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.97 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x123a…e878backed Yes | 64c | 82.64$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01f2…4876backed No | 29c | 80.42$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +376.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd08…2c93backed Yes | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 88 | 67%59 W · 29 L | +15.2wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +72%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xcd95…8c17backed No | 36c | 77.38$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.74 | 85 | 38.8%33 W · 52 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +87.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed No | 17c | 76.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 139 | 18.7%26 W · 113 L | -13.9wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 35 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Iran strike Jordan in March?this page
- Will Iran strike Afghanistan in March?No won
- Will Iran strike Armenia by March 31?No won
- Will Iran strike Azerbaijan by March 31?No won
- Will Iran strike Bahrain again in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Bahrain in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Cyprus in March?No won
- Will Iran strike Germany by March 31?No won
- Will Iran strike Hungary by March 31?No won
- Will Iran strike India in March?No won
- Will Iran strike Iraq again in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Iraq in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Israel again in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Israel in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Italy by March 31?No won
- Will Iran strike Jordan again in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Jordan in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Kuwait again in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Kuwait in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Lebanon in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Oman again in March?No won
- Will Iran strike Oman in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Pakistan in March?No won
- Will Iran strike Poland by March 31?No won
- Will Iran strike Qatar again in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Qatar in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Saudi Arabia again in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Saudi Arabia in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Syria in March?No won
- Will Iran strike Turkey in March?No won
- Will Iran strike UAE again in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike UAE in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Ukraine by March 31?No won
- Will Iran strike Yemen in March?No won
- Will Iran strike the United Kingdom by March 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.