TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Iran strike Oman again in March?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,574,876
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,614,081

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,574,876 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 371 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x152f…c7e7backed Yes0c200,204$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24010313.6%14 W · 89 L+0.1wins0.00per pick14cpaid-23%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4148…efe7backed Yes0c110,000$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick11cpaid-78.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff34…bf20backed Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3bf…a509backed Yes0c99,130$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.1330%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6c4…4c8bbacked Yes0c51,000$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.669028.9%26 W · 64 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick27cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8276…48e4backed Yes0c50,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-78.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x504d…98dcbacked Yes0c40,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-9.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb2dc…b433backed Yes0c39,944$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.944645.7%21 W · 25 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick49cpaid+35.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x371a…3131backed Yes0c31,520$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.5210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8be…444ebacked Yes3c31,265$910 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$909.99425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-66.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xccf3…1dd9backed Yes0c31,000$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31140%0 W · 14 L-5.0wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x675f…a63bbacked Yes0c30,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30234.3%1 W · 22 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-68.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2779…239abacked Yes3c28,219$818 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$818.064341.9%18 W · 25 L+3.8wins+0.09per pick33cpaid-15.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9b6b…9a8abacked Yes0c23,220$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.221811.1%2 W · 16 L+1.7wins+0.09per pick2cpaid+428.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5067…ba4fbacked Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204017.5%7 W · 33 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick12cpaid+49.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe685…56abbacked Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2060%0 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5695…1247backed Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20230%0 W · 23 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d05…6320backed Yes2c19,418$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$326.4410417.3%18 W · 86 L-13.7wins-0.13per pick31cpaid-69.5%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x3ad0…1153backed Yes0c18,004$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212142.9%9 W · 12 L+2.4wins+0.11per pick31cpaid+45.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb39b…b602backed Yes18c16,053$2,956 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,955.6230%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1356…7485backed Yes0c16,000$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb986…4b60backed Yes0c12,900$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.93951.3%20 W · 19 L+4.8wins+0.12per pick39cpaid+11.3%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x3c31…b74fbacked Yes0c10,030$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.231947.4%9 W · 10 L+2.3wins+0.12per pick35cpaid+16.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9199…8638backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a8b…cf2ebacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101127.3%3 W · 8 L+2.2wins+0.20per pick7cpaid+332.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3220…52a7backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2525…b919backed No36c7,743$2,784 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,959.1527643.5%120 W · 156 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-11.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x61b9…8913backed Yes70c6,159$4,303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,303.12540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick45cpaid+178.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35bb…009bbacked Yes61c5,704$3,468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,467.6816553.9%89 W · 76 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8103…4d0abacked Yes1c5,420$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.975416.7%9 W · 45 L-3.0wins-0.06per pick22cpaid-63.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8adc…6b14backed Yes0c5,040$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155036%18 W · 32 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-31.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe9db…a30ebacked Yes79c4,416$3,496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,496.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfb90…c9a0backed Yes3c3,774$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.361414.3%2 W · 12 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick11cpaid-45.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa0d1…734cbacked Yes37c3,615$1,335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,334.92630.8%8 W · 18 L-2.4wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-30%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x92d0…269ebacked No34c3,500$1,175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,324.8440939.6%162 W · 247 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8df9…468cbacked Yes11c3,327$351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350.8414227.5%39 W · 103 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-19.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes71c3,200$2,261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,260.5437740.1%151 W · 226 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7639…cbddbacked Yes11c3,006$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.082657.7%15 W · 11 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+13.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x401e…6fc9backed Yes64c2,902$1,870 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,869.5419648%94 W · 102 L+7.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7270…add3backed Yes13c2,522$328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$327.861643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+33%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0459…1572backed No54c2,500$1,362 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,138.76250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x756e…fe0fbacked No69c2,450$1,679 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$771.073630.6%11 W · 25 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-33.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked No32c2,382$771 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,611.1213544.4%60 W · 75 L+8.1wins+0.06per pick38cpaid-1.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5b8f…2c14backed No20c2,301$462 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,838.5511222.3%25 W · 87 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick21cpaid+26%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x934c…cd38backed No77c2,159$1,655 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$503.876358.7%37 W · 26 L+11.0wins+0.17per pick41cpaid+37.3%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes64c2,130$1,353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,352.828641.9%36 W · 50 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-9.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ca9…37d1backed Yes4c2,099$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.891833.3%6 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-8.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5acd…08fabacked No40c2,024$810 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2146939.1%27 W · 42 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a2b…af20backed Yes74c2,000$1,472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,471.9926429.2%77 W · 187 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes30c1,977$583 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$583.17779.1%7 W · 70 L-7.4wins-0.10per pick19cpaid-73.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa457…1a93backed Yes42c1,956$826 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$825.921850%9 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+11.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e26…2020backed Yes18c1,883$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341.1411250%56 W · 56 L+25.8wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+87.3%equal weight71+0.19 edge/pick
0xa0b0…a5fbbacked Yes63c1,874$1,171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,171.1216648.2%80 W · 86 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes20c1,835$361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361.3136750.4%185 W · 182 L+39.6wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+26.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x5a40…4093backed Yes65c1,811$1,172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,171.979825.5%25 W · 73 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-24.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6640…2202backed Yes65c1,800$1,172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,172.194656.5%26 W · 20 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67ac…edf1backed Yes70c1,639$1,139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,139.092441.7%10 W · 14 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+15.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x27db…af68backed Yes21c1,624$337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337.187428.4%21 W · 53 L+5.1wins+0.07per pick22cpaid+35.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes12c1,575$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18542329.1%123 W · 300 L+14.7wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-12%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe8d4…7a70backed No20c1,540$308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,231.415425.9%14 W · 40 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick29cpaid+13.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5dd2…ae40backed No78c1,524$1,189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$335.281172.7%8 W · 3 L+2.5wins+0.23per pick50cpaid+138%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x55f3…cadabacked Yes66c1,521$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.91757.1%4 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick71cpaid-17.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c09…1ba5backed No49c1,499$733 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$765.1610151.5%52 W · 49 L+8.8wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+35.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4124…04cabacked Yes8c1,466$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.68520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-66.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b9d…8201backed No61c1,465$901 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$564.5511454.4%62 W · 52 L+15.3wins+0.13per pick41cpaid+22.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x2461…f240backed No28c1,431$406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,025.21758.8%10 W · 7 L+3.3wins+0.19per pick40cpaid+33.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x78a1…e6bdbacked Yes18c1,425$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.156145.9%28 W · 33 L+13.5wins+0.22per pick24cpaid+73.8%equal weight67+0.16 edge/pick
0xec56…13a7backed Yes71c1,400$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001450%7 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-24.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed No60c1,395$841 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$554.0148923.5%115 W · 374 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-46.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x420f…a31ebacked No36c1,383$499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$883.562846.4%13 W · 15 L+2.9wins+0.10per pick36cpaid+44.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x770e…7640backed Yes23c1,350$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.8320617%35 W · 171 L-7.9wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-33.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e7f…b882backed No21c1,346$278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,068.04429.5%4 W · 38 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick15cpaid-70.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc351…08f7backed No68c1,340$911 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$428.8450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+29.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c76…06acbacked Yes75c1,317$994 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$993.663237.5%12 W · 20 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-30.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x746f…566dbacked Yes12c1,315$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.343748.6%18 W · 19 L+6.3wins+0.17per pick32cpaid+28.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x58fe…a8c5backed No68c1,310$891 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$419.2540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-33.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x50e8…ac57backed Yes13c1,237$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.812759.3%16 W · 11 L+3.2wins+0.12per pick47cpaid+18.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5322…95e1backed Yes13c1,232$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8e4…2daebacked Yes70c1,232$861 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$861.1710327.2%28 W · 75 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-31.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf5bb…bdb8backed Yes1c1,063$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113438.2%13 W · 21 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-33.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6b2…e08cbacked Yes1c1,060$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13944.4%4 W · 5 L0.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-26.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes53c1,038$555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$554.9513255.3%73 W · 59 L+9.1wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1f82…2d74backed Yes79c1,027$809 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$809.131723.5%4 W · 13 L-2.1wins-0.12per pick36cpaid-43%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x65bf…4b91backed No24c1,026$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$778.289217.4%16 W · 76 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ceb…2264backed Yes1c1,005$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.86250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick19cpaid+38.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0619…d801backed No34c1,000$338 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66214827%40 W · 108 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-34.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa230…1cdbbacked No40c1,000$404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$595.764540%18 W · 27 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8ac7…dc0bbacked No48c1,000$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5201070%7 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.11per pick59cpaid+11.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc043…eb1bbacked No30c1,000$304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$696.45541.8%23 W · 32 L-3.1wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2099…3024backed No27c987.25$268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$718.8512023.3%28 W · 92 L+10.9wins+0.09per pick14cpaid+3.5%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xdf17…97d1backed No16c948.45$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$796.0611334.5%39 W · 74 L-7.5wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-29.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3734…01a3backed Yes32c945$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.42123.8%5 W · 16 L-2.1wins-0.10per pick34cpaid-45.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1892…1b4cbacked Yes5c942.05$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503040%12 W · 18 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+21.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb29…19c8backed Yes32c940$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.830%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0b65…293ebacked No80c913.98$731 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.33164.5%20 W · 11 L+4.6wins+0.15per pick50cpaid+17.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked No39c900.15$348 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$552.1547334%161 W · 312 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+13.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0401…2f0ebacked No63c900$563 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$337.214938.8%19 W · 30 L-3.3wins-0.07per pick46cpaid+9.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5c51…a829backed Yes22c890$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.82060%12 W · 8 L+3.5wins+0.17per pick43cpaid+54.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xefde…65abbacked No24c873.34$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$667.954721.3%10 W · 37 L-0.2wins0.00per pick22cpaid-39.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1016…c866backed Yes10c865.21$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.797722.1%17 W · 60 L0.0wins0.00per pick22cpaid-38.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 35 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.