Middle East · resolved market
Will Iran strike Bahrain again in March?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb5490271ca82b107aa311d728a79fbead8b37a4435bc4626562bd6edbae97076
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $394,867
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $421,435
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $394,867 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x27a5…c62abacked No | 0c | 143,641$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91dd…6780backed No | 0c | 98,503$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.5 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x604a…d5f8backed No | 0c | 15,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2282…1051backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 8cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 7c | 4,297$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.31 | 77 | 9.1%7 W · 70 L | -7.4wins | -0.10per pick | 19cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x40cf…d21dbacked No | 6c | 4,195$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.91 | 160 | 41.9%67 W · 93 L | +12.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked No | 6c | 3,680$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.09 | 174 | 14.4%25 W · 149 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x720c…551abacked No | 3c | 3,283$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x746f…566dbacked Yes | 74c | 1,589$1,170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +6.3wins | +0.17per pick | 32cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x862c…044cbacked No | 7c | 1,493$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…6fe7backed No | 8c | 1,461$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5db…2facbacked No | 6c | 1,389$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fb…db5cbacked Yes | 75c | 1,357$1,013 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.63 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | -7.3wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked No | 6c | 1,140$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 156 | 29.5%46 W · 110 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe312…ff74backed No | 3c | 992.9$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad46…0918backed No | 42c | 857$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.94 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -3.6wins | -0.26per pick | 40cpaid | -76.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x49d5…2e07backed No | 15c | 751.16$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.16 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x769d…05bfbacked Yes | 72c | 656.99$474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.71 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +6.8wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…d242backed No | 8c | 652.81$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.29 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 19c | 616.28$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.71 | 342 | 34.8%119 W · 223 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x461e…48f0backed No | 33c | 597.33$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.61 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa15b…200fbacked Yes | 74c | 592$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.92 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec3…3adcbacked Yes | 58c | 587$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.54 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47eb…8195backed No | 26c | 550$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 57c | 546$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.36 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9f66…ad61backed No | 26c | 539$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.14 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c9…af45backed No | 26c | 538$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.88 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.17per pick | 38cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4faa…fecfbacked Yes | 58c | 528$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.76 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa151…13b4backed Yes | 74c | 525$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.5 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +100.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 18c | 521.61$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.64 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c86…b75ebacked Yes | 74c | 510$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.6 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x035f…33ebbacked No | 7c | 504.13$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.19 | 110 | 16.4%18 W · 92 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b22…0973backed No | 2c | 456$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb442…bed7backed No | 12c | 405.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c64…cb26backed No | 38c | 371.45$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -51%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 79c | 343.85$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.35 | 89 | 29.2%26 W · 63 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac8f…feddbacked Yes | 56c | 340$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.2 | 210 | 34.3%72 W · 138 L | +9.3wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fe…1f3ebacked No | 15c | 304.18$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.63 | 216 | 31.9%69 W · 147 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7658…2066backed No | 16c | 295.69$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0caa…fb12backed Yes | 63c | 295$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.15 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3c…d42ebacked No | 37c | 295$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.15 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f3…2568backed Yes | 68c | 293.94$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.94 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -8.2wins | -0.24per pick | 62cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x024d…3cb0backed No | 5c | 268.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5885…6562backed No | 42c | 258$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.36 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd5b…605cbacked No | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4994…3a64backed Yes | 65c | 227.34$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.15 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 19c | 222.61$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.96 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe7…ff4bbacked Yes | 75c | 156.28$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.07 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9e…8a70backed No | 10c | 155$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec20…c74bbacked No | 29c | 154.92$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff05…0a63backed Yes | 74c | 138.63$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.67 | 104 | 28.8%30 W · 74 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 19c | 135.36$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.64 | 344 | 32.3%111 W · 233 L | -31.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8b72…6dbebacked Yes | 68c | 133.57$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.74 | 228 | 46.1%105 W · 123 L | +22.6wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6f08…54d3backed Yes | 44c | 132.54$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.01 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | +7.5wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9458…c97fbacked No | 13c | 122.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 13c | 102.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 356 | 52.8%188 W · 168 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1016…c866backed No | 15c | 100.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 77 | 22.1%17 W · 60 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.62 | 261 | 38.7%101 W · 160 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…ff58backed No | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 89 | 53.9%48 W · 41 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 113 | 57.5%65 W · 48 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 31c | 99.98$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 24c | 84.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 396 | 21%83 W · 313 L | -57.0wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…f18cbacked Yes | 75c | 81.75$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.38 | 173 | 59.5%103 W · 70 L | +12.8wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x083f…a55fbacked No | 26c | 77.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa9…9072backed No | 14c | 72.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | +8.7wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +40%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4b50…3ca9backed No | 28c | 70.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0847…e54cbacked No | 26c | 61.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 24c | 59.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 323 | 45.2%146 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a9…c786backed Yes | 60c | 55.12$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.9 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 20c | 51.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 247 | 59.1%146 W · 101 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d2b…8384backed No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86eb…5864backed No | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -4.7wins | -0.28per pick | 51cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc717…7c96backed Yes | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf060…42f8backed No | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…e193backed Yes | 69c | 49.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…5d99backed Yes | 57c | 49.29$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.19 | 127 | 44.9%57 W · 70 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +91.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…e8aebacked No | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa133…184fbacked Yes | 60c | 44.97$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.97 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3096…58a3backed Yes | 70c | 43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 81 | 42%34 W · 47 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c4a…1b2fbacked Yes | 58c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 120 | 40%48 W · 72 L | -9.6wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x454c…4fcdbacked No | 42c | 35.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38d7…059ebacked No | 41c | 24.15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb870…49bdbacked Yes | 80c | 21.25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -46%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2023…d780backed No | 64c | 18.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6bc…6b09backed Yes | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 25cpaid | +20%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 35 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Iran strike Bahrain again in March?this page
- Will Iran strike Afghanistan in March?No won
- Will Iran strike Armenia by March 31?No won
- Will Iran strike Azerbaijan by March 31?No won
- Will Iran strike Bahrain in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Cyprus in March?No won
- Will Iran strike Germany by March 31?No won
- Will Iran strike Hungary by March 31?No won
- Will Iran strike India in March?No won
- Will Iran strike Iraq again in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Iraq in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Israel again in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Israel in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Italy by March 31?No won
- Will Iran strike Jordan again in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Jordan in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Jordan in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Kuwait again in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Kuwait in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Lebanon in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Oman again in March?No won
- Will Iran strike Oman in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Pakistan in March?No won
- Will Iran strike Poland by March 31?No won
- Will Iran strike Qatar again in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Qatar in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Saudi Arabia again in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Saudi Arabia in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Syria in March?No won
- Will Iran strike Turkey in March?No won
- Will Iran strike UAE again in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike UAE in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Ukraine by March 31?No won
- Will Iran strike Yemen in March?No won
- Will Iran strike the United Kingdom by March 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.