TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xff05…0a63

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
119
Categories scored
9
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: Middle East, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 54 out of 100; worst NFL at 48.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT10428.8%30 W · 74 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick25cpaid-10.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 104 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Tucker Carlson federally charged?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$36
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$186Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$185.6
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$46.44
Will an Iranian agent be charged in the US by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT+270.4%+$36.5
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$235Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+125.6%+$295.58
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$84Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$83.72
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$143Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$142.95
Will Iran strike Azerbaijan by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.6
Will Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia occur by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.47
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$43.41
Will Kuwait strike Iran by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$53.98
Will Jordan strike Iran by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.6
Israeli forces enter Beirut by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$71.3
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+150%+$30
Will any E.U. country strike Iran by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$53.69
Will UK strike Iran by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.7
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$90
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$383Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$383.23
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$672Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$672
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT+213.3%+$103.48
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$119Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$118.74
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$43.3
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$22
Showing 25 of 104 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved May 3, 2026, EDT728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-56.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Commodities — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Jan 17, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NFL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Bills vs. Broncosbacked Bills · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$14.18
Bengals vs. Cowboysbacked Cowboys · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2024, EST-100%-$11
All 2 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Oct 17, 2024, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+132.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 17, 2024, EDT+132.6%+$132.56
All 1 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Apr 6, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NHL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Boston Bruins win the 2025 Stanley Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$41.2
All 1 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.2
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 20, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Hamas leadership out of Qatar before Trump in office?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$56
All 1 picks, newest first.
Olympics Inactivelast resolved Feb 12, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Olympics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Men's Group A - Czechia vs. Canadabacked Czechia · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST-100%-$31.03
All 1 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Mar 24, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Lakers vs. Pistonsbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$162Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$162
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.