Middle East · resolved market
Will Kuwait strike Iran by April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8630fdefbfe6098c0a9426d7d75c48369071484f8df9a240b51e54649ef0fde6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $168,726
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $125,587
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $168,726 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd2a8…5c27backed Yes | 11c | 15,064$1,620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,620 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 4c | 7,712$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.36 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a2…a79abacked Yes | 7c | 6,000$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405 | 58 | 29.3%17 W · 41 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc040…beacbacked Yes | 3c | 5,614$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.87 | 165 | 26.1%43 W · 122 L | +7.7wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a2…183fbacked Yes | 6c | 3,082$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +92.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6872…876fbacked Yes | 3c | 3,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 96 | 13.5%13 W · 83 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 2c | 2,909$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.51 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 2,495$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.72 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 1c | 2,377$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.08 | 274 | 2.9%8 W · 266 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81e0…2c3bbacked Yes | 2c | 2,277$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.95 | 92 | 22.8%21 W · 71 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 3c | 2,238$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.59 | 243 | 8.2%20 W · 223 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb698…976abacked Yes | 6c | 2,182$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.48 | 57 | 12.3%7 W · 50 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c5b…fd67backed Yes | 6c | 1,714$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 5c | 1,662$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.6 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b69…ee2ebacked Yes | 6c | 1,641$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.04 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3394…3c4dbacked Yes | 5c | 1,599$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 1c | 1,334$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 3c | 1,300$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 371 | 7%26 W · 345 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc53b…7049backed Yes | 8c | 1,258$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 4c | 1,241$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.98 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 3c | 1,200$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2675…5bf9backed Yes | 10c | 1,151$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.81 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | +8.0wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +62.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2945…c6ddbacked Yes | 5c | 1,145$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.52 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac8f…feddbacked Yes | 1c | 1,121$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 210 | 34.3%72 W · 138 L | +9.3wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25db…28debacked Yes | 3c | 1,089$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.86 | 79 | 43%34 W · 45 L | +11.7wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.1 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff05…0a63backed Yes | 6c | 893.46$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.98 | 104 | 28.8%30 W · 74 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 5c | 720.82$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.9 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb89f…1c44backed Yes | 6c | 702.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.6 | 69 | 42%29 W · 40 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -24%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32d1…b949backed Yes | 4c | 677$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.25 | 104 | 26%27 W · 77 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +101.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes | 4c | 601.24$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 169 | 3.6%6 W · 163 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57cd…82acbacked Yes | 5c | 599.81$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.61 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | +7.2wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +136.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7a81…a925backed Yes | 4c | 581.69$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.96 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | -4.5wins | -0.17per pick | 21cpaid | -93.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes | 5c | 570.24$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.35 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x810f…8783backed Yes | 4c | 529.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -3.6wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2814…5596backed Yes | 5c | 522.48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -4.0wins | -0.14per pick | 27cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 7c | 506.29$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.24 | 120 | 23.3%28 W · 92 L | +10.9wins | +0.09per pick | 14cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…d5f3backed Yes | 9c | 500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.8 | 253 | 39.5%100 W · 153 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf48a…0e92backed Yes | 8c | 497.78$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…4d0abacked Yes | 8c | 458.83$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 54 | 16.7%9 W · 45 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddd…5ca4backed Yes | 4c | 442.84$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 10cpaid | +120%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2070…a694backed Yes | 6c | 418.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.91 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.17per pick | 51cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d81…5c1ebacked Yes | 5c | 415.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54bb…59c7backed Yes | 4c | 405.27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 164 | 17.7%29 W · 135 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 5c | 354.82$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 119 | 9.2%11 W · 108 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 4c | 346.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 442 | 24.4%108 W · 334 L | +22.2wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1c…c522backed Yes | 7c | 324.94$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c18…de25backed Yes | 11c | 324.01$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ee3…a899backed Yes | 9c | 317.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -75%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x904f…50c6backed Yes | 7c | 302.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf85…86e1backed Yes | 7c | 296.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd650…c3a4backed Yes | 6c | 262.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 5c | 260$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 72 | 1.4%1 W · 71 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 5c | 250$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 366 | 26.8%98 W · 268 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf814…4cadbacked Yes | 6c | 172.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 43cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x70d9…7c38backed Yes | 7c | 134.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df1…9460backed Yes | 10c | 103.85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Kuwait strike Iran by April 30?this page
- Will Canada strike Iran by April 30?No won
- Will France strike Iran by April 30?No won
- Will Germany strike Iran by April 30?No won
- Will Jordan strike Iran by April 30?No won
- Will Oman strike Iran by April 30?No won
- Will Qatar strike Iran by April 30?No won
- Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30?No won
- Will Turkey strike Iran by April 30?No won
- Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?No won
- Will UK strike Iran by April 30?No won
- Will any E.U. country strike Iran by April 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.