Middle East · resolved market
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbaa4a5fd5f10279ea0680d579750e55f918260473a6786dc38846021a3371d1d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $604,280
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $485,640
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $604,280 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 344 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x25db…28debacked Yes | 11c | 36,977$4,046 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,045.89 | 79 | 43%34 W · 45 L | +11.7wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6872…876fbacked Yes | 9c | 31,186$2,911 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,910.55 | 96 | 13.5%13 W · 83 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x878f…1755backed Yes | 12c | 28,117$3,435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,435.06 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -4.1wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 8c | 26,033$2,077 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,077.19 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked Yes | 10c | 20,000$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 174 | 14.4%25 W · 149 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd650…c3a4backed Yes | 7c | 15,229$1,056 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,055.72 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93fb…3e4abacked Yes | 18c | 11,107$1,998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,998.2 | 70 | 32.9%23 W · 47 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fa…1a14backed Yes | 17c | 10,121$1,681 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,681.46 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -3.0wins | -0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -87.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 21c | 9,100$1,911 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,911.48 | 152 | 32.9%50 W · 102 L | +15.8wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xde8f…8fd8backed No | 71c | 7,610$5,404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,206.51 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8213…083bbacked Yes | 28c | 7,466$2,115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,114.62 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 18c | 7,310$1,315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,314.86 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa43a…94b2backed Yes | 13c | 6,668$847 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$847.08 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x833a…adecbacked Yes | 33c | 6,011$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c5b…fd67backed Yes | 21c | 5,000$1,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,050 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d4…9969backed Yes | 16c | 5,000$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$780 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c8…b9e6backed No | 72c | 4,700$3,369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,331 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc040…beacbacked Yes | 5c | 4,195$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.39 | 165 | 26.1%43 W · 122 L | +7.7wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e21…35cabacked Yes | 27c | 4,054$1,101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100.73 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d81…5c1ebacked Yes | 12c | 4,031$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e2f…2e84backed Yes | 30c | 4,000$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x10e1…aa05backed Yes | 3c | 3,858$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Yes | 24c | 3,686$892 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$891.74 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +30%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2835…2b42backed Yes | 14c | 3,502$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +61.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e42…49edbacked No | 73c | 3,468$2,538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$930.4 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x770e…7640backed Yes | 10c | 3,394$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.05 | 206 | 17%35 W · 171 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9636…546abacked Yes | 6c | 3,360$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.12 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 55cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 9c | 3,349$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.02 | 218 | 31.2%68 W · 150 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 5c | 3,162$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.02 | 371 | 7%26 W · 345 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…bf3dbacked Yes | 12c | 3,143$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.61 | 183 | 38.3%70 W · 113 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7164…7ff7backed Yes | 21c | 3,117$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf31a…bfbabacked Yes | 17c | 2,987$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.81 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9597…a850backed Yes | 5c | 2,514$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 2c | 2,400$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.2 | 274 | 2.9%8 W · 266 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7c…cb5fbacked No | 73c | 2,388$1,745 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$642.97 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +3.9wins | +0.17per pick | 35cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 10c | 2,292$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.84 | 366 | 26.8%98 W · 268 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x462d…741cbacked No | 76c | 2,203$1,670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$533.65 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | -7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcca9…4c9fbacked No | 70c | 2,155$1,519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$636.5 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -34%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 3c | 2,152$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.94 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d17…0e2bbacked No | 73c | 2,105$1,537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$568.35 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 6c | 2,092$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.38 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked Yes | 9c | 2,072$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.59 | 215 | 25.1%54 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfba9…cb2cbacked Yes | 7c | 2,054$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.28 | 48 | 12.5%6 W · 42 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +102.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x387a…8eaebacked Yes | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.72 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8df2…788dbacked No | 77c | 1,998$1,535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.63 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e5…d252backed No | 74c | 1,953$1,445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$507.78 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +39%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…6a92backed No | 72c | 1,928$1,395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$533.42 | 194 | 49.5%96 W · 98 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3c…a29ebacked Yes | 27c | 1,914$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516.78 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 5c | 1,904$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.34 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87fd…66bcbacked Yes | 12c | 1,807$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.84 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 16c | 1,800$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4669…99c0backed No | 80c | 1,671$1,336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.49 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb89f…1c44backed Yes | 6c | 1,652$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.19 | 69 | 42%29 W · 40 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -24%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0649…a47bbacked Yes | 18c | 1,623$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8bd…a29dbacked Yes | 25c | 1,593$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9386…b2b7backed Yes | 16c | 1,583$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -83.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8129…5f30backed Yes | 14c | 1,569$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.72 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -3.5wins | -0.14per pick | 19cpaid | -85.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe56b…2c03backed Yes | 12c | 1,500$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.56 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd054…7e38backed No | 78c | 1,487$1,165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.27 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x81e0…2c3bbacked Yes | 12c | 1,480$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.6 | 92 | 22.8%21 W · 71 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b69…ee2ebacked Yes | 14c | 1,458$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 1,422$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.78 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e88…df66backed Yes | 14c | 1,409$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 32cpaid | +107.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x42a6…cb72backed Yes | 15c | 1,333$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa2…3170backed Yes | 14c | 1,249$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.86 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +8.3wins | +0.21per pick | 25cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd002…cfd0backed Yes | 20c | 1,244$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.87 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb11…0d5ebacked Yes | 8c | 1,202$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.18 | 78 | 30.8%24 W · 54 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79a1…34b5backed Yes | 17c | 1,165$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2814…5596backed Yes | 4c | 1,136$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -4.0wins | -0.14per pick | 27cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe3c5…a0f3backed Yes | 27c | 1,118$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 79 | 26.6%21 W · 58 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 4c | 1,111$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.35 | 442 | 24.4%108 W · 334 L | +22.2wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Yes | 19c | 1,108$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.83 | 203 | 36.9%75 W · 128 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ba…e8ccbacked Yes | 21c | 1,089$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.5 | 53 | 7.5%4 W · 49 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4004…c5debacked Yes | 5c | 1,084$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | +353%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1849…eb1abacked Yes | 10c | 1,010$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 18cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd980…5be0backed Yes | 8c | 1,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.58 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed5a…c744backed Yes | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc7…4ad4backed Yes | 15c | 1,000$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | +20.7wins | +0.16per pick | 33cpaid | +143.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x62cf…5826backed No | 75c | 1,000$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 62 | 62.9%39 W · 23 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dea…e49fbacked No | 70c | 992.97$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.97 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2de8…293cbacked No | 73c | 979$715 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.33 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc53b…7049backed Yes | 10c | 957.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xacd0…754fbacked Yes | 5c | 916.8$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x335c…6e62backed Yes | 7c | 858.37$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.6 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes | 4c | 848.38$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.25 | 169 | 3.6%6 W · 163 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x448b…181abacked Yes | 14c | 800$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked No | 67c | 799.74$533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.9 | 296 | 53.7%159 W · 137 L | +20.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b3…5516backed Yes | 13c | 770$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -70%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbd6…f6cdbacked Yes | 13c | 759.69$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8561…337bbacked Yes | 13c | 750$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 50 | 32%16 W · 34 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5374…952abacked Yes | 12c | 729$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.48 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffb0…fa37backed No | 68c | 722.79$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.52 | 160 | 61.9%99 W · 61 L | +9.8wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb48b…04ebbacked No | 74c | 710.69$529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.6 | 83 | 57.8%48 W · 35 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc521…b46abacked Yes | 29c | 689.66$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67da…ae34backed Yes | 4c | 684.91$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -60%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d4…88debacked Yes | 15c | 666.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x256b…cd5dbacked Yes | 20c | 666$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.2 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | +568.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f08…73a8backed Yes | 36c | 664.9$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.77 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36b8…ac4cbacked Yes | 26c | 664$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.64 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8363…9144backed Yes | 16c | 660.6$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30?this page
- Will Canada strike Iran by April 30?No won
- Will France strike Iran by April 30?No won
- Will Germany strike Iran by April 30?No won
- Will Jordan strike Iran by April 30?No won
- Will Kuwait strike Iran by April 30?No won
- Will Oman strike Iran by April 30?No won
- Will Qatar strike Iran by April 30?No won
- Will Turkey strike Iran by April 30?No won
- Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?No won
- Will UK strike Iran by April 30?No won
- Will any E.U. country strike Iran by April 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.