TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$604,280
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$485,640

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $604,280 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 344 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x25db…28debacked Yes11c36,977$4,046 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,045.897943%34 W · 45 L+11.7wins+0.15per pick28cpaid+49.6%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x6872…876fbacked Yes9c31,186$2,911 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,910.559613.5%13 W · 83 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-54.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x878f…1755backed Yes12c28,117$3,435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,435.063221.9%7 W · 25 L-4.1wins-0.13per pick35cpaid-59.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes8c26,033$2,077 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,077.1942818.7%80 W · 348 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-28.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f2a…58afbacked Yes10c20,000$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00017414.4%25 W · 149 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick15cpaid+17.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd650…c3a4backed Yes7c15,229$1,056 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,055.72300%0 W · 30 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x93fb…3e4abacked Yes18c11,107$1,998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,998.27032.9%23 W · 47 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+26.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb1fa…1a14backed Yes17c10,121$1,681 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,681.46248.3%2 W · 22 L-3.0wins-0.12per pick21cpaid-87.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Yes21c9,100$1,911 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,911.4815232.9%50 W · 102 L+15.8wins+0.10per pick22cpaid+19.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xde8f…8fd8backed No71c7,610$5,404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,206.513250%16 W · 16 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-21.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8213…083bbacked Yes28c7,466$2,115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,114.6240%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked Yes18c7,310$1,315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,314.864814.6%7 W · 41 L-2.7wins-0.06per pick20cpaid-67.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa43a…94b2backed Yes13c6,668$847 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$847.081910.5%2 W · 17 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-40.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x833a…adecbacked Yes33c6,011$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,000633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-51.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c5b…fd67backed Yes21c5,000$1,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,05030%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3d4…9969backed Yes16c5,000$780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7801030%3 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick20cpaid-12.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb6c8…b9e6backed No72c4,700$3,369 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,3316100%6 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc040…beacbacked Yes5c4,195$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.3916526.1%43 W · 122 L+7.7wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3e21…35cabacked Yes27c4,054$1,101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,100.73366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+7.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d81…5c1ebacked Yes12c4,031$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001513.3%2 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick16cpaid+32.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e2f…2e84backed Yes30c4,000$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,20060%0 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x10e1…aa05backed Yes3c3,858$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004017.5%7 W · 33 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-27.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Yes24c3,686$892 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$891.741540%6 W · 9 L+2.0wins+0.13per pick27cpaid+30%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2835…2b42backed Yes14c3,502$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001428.6%4 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick24cpaid+61.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e42…49edbacked No73c3,468$2,538 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$930.44143.9%18 W · 23 L-3.4wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-25.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x770e…7640backed Yes10c3,394$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336.0520617%35 W · 171 L-7.9wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-33.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9636…546abacked Yes6c3,360$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.121968.4%13 W · 6 L+2.5wins+0.13per pick55cpaid+9.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes9c3,349$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.0221831.2%68 W · 150 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-23.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed Yes5c3,162$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.023717%26 W · 345 L+10.6wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9ad0…bf3dbacked Yes12c3,143$377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$376.6118338.3%70 W · 113 L+14.5wins+0.08per pick30cpaid-13.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7164…7ff7backed Yes21c3,117$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6502821.4%6 W · 22 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-46.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf31a…bfbabacked Yes17c2,987$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.811233.3%4 W · 8 L+2.0wins+0.16per pick17cpaid+34.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9597…a850backed Yes5c2,514$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1211526.7%4 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-34.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes2c2,400$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.22742.9%8 W · 266 L+0.5wins0.00per pick3cpaid-58.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f7c…cb5fbacked No73c2,388$1,745 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$642.972352.2%12 W · 11 L+3.9wins+0.17per pick35cpaid-14.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed Yes10c2,292$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.8436626.8%98 W · 268 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x462d…741cbacked No76c2,203$1,670 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$533.65771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick60cpaid-7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcca9…4c9fbacked No70c2,155$1,519 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$636.55238.5%20 W · 32 L-4.1wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-34%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes3c2,152$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.9450130.5%153 W · 348 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-30.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d17…0e2bbacked No73c2,105$1,537 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$568.351546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes6c2,092$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.387135.6%40 W · 673 L+11.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0482…6b0abacked Yes9c2,072$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.5921525.1%54 W · 161 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+30.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfba9…cb2cbacked Yes7c2,054$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.284812.5%6 W · 42 L-4.1wins-0.08per pick21cpaid+102.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x387a…8eaebacked Yes5c2,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.7230%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8df2…788dbacked No77c1,998$1,535 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$463.631233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-50.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa9e5…d252backed No74c1,953$1,445 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$507.781450%7 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+39%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x300c…6a92backed No72c1,928$1,395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$533.4219449.5%96 W · 98 L+12.3wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+16%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3e3c…a29ebacked Yes27c1,914$517 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$516.781656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+15.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes5c1,904$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.344195.3%22 W · 397 L+1.4wins0.00per pick5cpaid-15.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x87fd…66bcbacked Yes12c1,807$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.84825%2 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes16c1,800$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29056336.6%206 W · 357 L+44.4wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+37.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x4669…99c0backed No80c1,671$1,336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$334.492462.5%15 W · 9 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick55cpaid-5.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb89f…1c44backed Yes6c1,652$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.196942%29 W · 40 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-24%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0649…a47bbacked Yes18c1,623$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300520%1 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick40cpaid-72.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa8bd…a29dbacked Yes25c1,593$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9386…b2b7backed Yes16c1,583$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2501010%1 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick16cpaid-83.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8129…5f30backed Yes14c1,569$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.72244.2%1 W · 23 L-3.5wins-0.14per pick19cpaid-85.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe56b…2c03backed Yes12c1,500$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.561513.3%2 W · 13 L-2.6wins-0.17per pick31cpaid-78.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xd054…7e38backed No78c1,487$1,165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$322.277948.1%38 W · 41 L-5.3wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-17.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x81e0…2c3bbacked Yes12c1,480$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.69222.8%21 W · 71 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+22.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b69…ee2ebacked Yes14c1,458$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001717.6%3 W · 14 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-40.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes6c1,422$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.781,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e88…df66backed Yes14c1,409$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1951346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.9wins+0.14per pick32cpaid+107.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x42a6…cb72backed Yes15c1,333$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4aa2…3170backed Yes14c1,249$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.863946.2%18 W · 21 L+8.3wins+0.21per pick25cpaid+112.8%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xd002…cfd0backed Yes20c1,244$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.87728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-57.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb11…0d5ebacked Yes8c1,202$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.187830.8%24 W · 54 L-5.3wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-25%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x79a1…34b5backed Yes17c1,165$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2814…5596backed Yes4c1,136$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502913.8%4 W · 25 L-4.0wins-0.14per pick27cpaid-72.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe3c5…a0f3backed Yes27c1,118$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3007926.6%21 W · 58 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-38.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xad52…11acbacked Yes4c1,111$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.3544224.4%108 W · 334 L+22.2wins+0.05per pick19cpaid+19.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Yes19c1,108$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.8320336.9%75 W · 128 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-20%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe2ba…e8ccbacked Yes21c1,089$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.5537.5%4 W · 49 L-4.3wins-0.08per pick16cpaid-61.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4004…c5debacked Yes5c1,084$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501618.8%3 W · 13 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick13cpaid+353%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1849…eb1abacked Yes10c1,010$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.19per pick18cpaid+28.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd980…5be0backed Yes8c1,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.58267.7%2 W · 24 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick15cpaid-80.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xed5a…c744backed Yes15c1,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1502040%8 W · 12 L-0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid+30.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6bc7…4ad4backed Yes15c1,000$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15213348.1%64 W · 69 L+20.7wins+0.16per pick33cpaid+143.3%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x62cf…5826backed No75c1,000$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2506262.9%39 W · 23 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+1.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3dea…e49fbacked No70c992.97$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$292.975151%26 W · 25 L+3.5wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+12.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2de8…293cbacked No73c979$715 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.331145.5%5 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc53b…7049backed Yes10c957.56$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002416.7%4 W · 20 L-2.6wins-0.11per pick28cpaid-56.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xacd0…754fbacked Yes5c916.8$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502725.9%7 W · 20 L-2.7wins-0.10per pick36cpaid-51.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x335c…6e62backed Yes7c858.37$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.62213.6%3 W · 19 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-19.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes4c848.38$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.251693.6%6 W · 163 L-0.8wins0.00per pick4cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x448b…181abacked Yes14c800$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1122532%8 W · 17 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-35.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ee9…197fbacked No67c799.74$533 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.929653.7%159 W · 137 L+20.2wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+104.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe5b3…5516backed Yes13c770$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001816.7%3 W · 15 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick13cpaid-70%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbd6…f6cdbacked Yes13c759.69$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8561…337bbacked Yes13c750$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005032%16 W · 34 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+13.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5374…952abacked Yes12c729$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.481040%4 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+47.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xffb0…fa37backed No68c722.79$491 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.5216061.9%99 W · 61 L+9.8wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+7.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb48b…04ebbacked No74c710.69$529 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.68357.8%48 W · 35 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+34.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc521…b46abacked Yes29c689.66$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+27.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x67da…ae34backed Yes4c684.91$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25520%1 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick15cpaid-60%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3d4…88debacked Yes15c666.67$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10050%0 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x256b…cd5dbacked Yes20c666$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.2933.3%3 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.12per pick22cpaid+568.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9f08…73a8backed Yes36c664.9$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.776154.1%33 W · 28 L+0.3wins0.00per pick54cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36b8…ac4cbacked Yes26c664$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.641346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-15.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8363…9144backed Yes16c660.6$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.2130%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.