Middle East · resolved market
Will Turkey strike Iran by April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeb5d927fd4547c17e7d089eb398abb7de55a8cfd6af50498c121eeb5fe2561cd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $88,956
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $77,153
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $88,956 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd650…c3a4backed Yes | 3c | 14,695$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.01 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6872…876fbacked Yes | 2c | 5,034$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.92 | 96 | 13.5%13 W · 83 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0be…4a93backed Yes | 5c | 3,914$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.37 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 2c | 2,691$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.26 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb521…18f6backed Yes | 4c | 1,683$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.65 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 1,561$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.23 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4797…59d7backed Yes | 4c | 1,522$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa718…d15abacked Yes | 4c | 1,474$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdaec…e829backed Yes | 4c | 1,154$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdaba…c984backed Yes | 4c | 985$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…bf3dbacked Yes | 2c | 914.95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.68 | 183 | 38.3%70 W · 113 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 2c | 769.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 3c | 600$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 371 | 7%26 W · 345 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3f…ae90backed Yes | 5c | 594$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.62 | 59 | 13.6%8 W · 51 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 565$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 3c | 519.42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf045…b217backed Yes | 4c | 509$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e52…3757backed Yes | 4c | 465$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 456.68$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6102…fcfcbacked Yes | 4c | 411$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41ca…c87ebacked Yes | 4c | 392$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 4c | 358.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Turkey strike Iran by April 30?this page
- Will Canada strike Iran by April 30?No won
- Will France strike Iran by April 30?No won
- Will Germany strike Iran by April 30?No won
- Will Jordan strike Iran by April 30?No won
- Will Kuwait strike Iran by April 30?No won
- Will Oman strike Iran by April 30?No won
- Will Qatar strike Iran by April 30?No won
- Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30?No won
- Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?No won
- Will UK strike Iran by April 30?No won
- Will any E.U. country strike Iran by April 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.