Middle East · resolved market
Will France strike Iran by April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x23c42a5357013e6f0dfb99d4f8816d56b655d354d50f853259ce794748d0e5b6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $211,561
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $213,241
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $211,561 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3992…5f56backed Yes | 6c | 3,013$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e7…0af1backed Yes | 5c | 2,728$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64b2…a9f8backed Yes | 1c | 2,559$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 5cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a0c…b74abacked Yes | 5c | 2,422$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x462a…6b8ebacked Yes | 6c | 2,337$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2938…6c38backed Yes | 6c | 2,207$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe69b…28cbbacked Yes | 5c | 2,166$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38c0…db46backed Yes | 5c | 2,025$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe577…1f8dbacked Yes | 5c | 2,017$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7490…6e4abacked Yes | 5c | 1,953$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5218…12c7backed Yes | 6c | 1,934$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa810…9802backed Yes | 5c | 1,875$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a2…d947backed Yes | 5c | 1,862$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86bd…f036backed Yes | 6c | 1,824$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.44 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 3c | 1,730$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.86 | 221 | 7.2%16 W · 205 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74e6…cad4backed Yes | 5c | 1,723$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa939…2ba7backed Yes | 5c | 1,688$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b66…a8d6backed Yes | 1c | 1,611$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd73…59a7backed Yes | 5c | 1,555$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde2c…1bb3backed Yes | 5c | 1,473$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d70…0044backed Yes | 3c | 1,469$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0985…f3f8backed Yes | 6c | 1,395$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2fd…f785backed Yes | 6c | 1,356$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 1c | 1,251$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.26 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c48…11cbbacked Yes | 6c | 1,192$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8af…325dbacked Yes | 6c | 1,188$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6204…c172backed Yes | 6c | 1,148$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabe1…1ce1backed Yes | 5c | 1,123$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 3c | 1,118$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.05 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5985…a7e6backed Yes | 5c | 1,106$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69d0…7adfbacked Yes | 6c | 1,102$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca1…1d9bbacked Yes | 6c | 1,012$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6872…876fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 96 | 13.5%13 W · 83 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7242…a72dbacked Yes | 5c | 1,000$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf0…176ebacked Yes | 5c | 992$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacdc…32ebbacked Yes | 6c | 986$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64da…5973backed Yes | 6c | 981$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a6…3257backed Yes | 6c | 962$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e13…418bbacked Yes | 5c | 958$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…bf3dbacked Yes | 2c | 950.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.47 | 183 | 38.3%70 W · 113 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0087…fdfdbacked Yes | 5c | 949$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe29…1201backed Yes | 5c | 937$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x412c…2d87backed Yes | 2c | 916.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 74 | 33.8%25 W · 49 L | +11.5wins | +0.16per pick | 18cpaid | +259.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x219c…212fbacked Yes | 6c | 897$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f12…50a9backed Yes | 6c | 871$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a5…4d0bbacked Yes | 1c | 862.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5e…329dbacked Yes | 5c | 860$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd237…c314backed Yes | 5c | 855$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5715…1616backed Yes | 1c | 828.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 115 | 27%31 W · 84 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0575…a274backed Yes | 5c | 824$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe861…e822backed Yes | 5c | 780$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc96…b54fbacked Yes | 6c | 772$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x826c…0f9bbacked Yes | 6c | 762$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e5…a499backed Yes | 5c | 717$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6987…c5ecbacked Yes | 5c | 695$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee4b…02c1backed Yes | 5c | 676$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.83 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59c7…c51bbacked Yes | 5c | 675$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x845c…6660backed Yes | 5c | 653$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedca…a9a5backed Yes | 5c | 649$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7477…812dbacked Yes | 6c | 645$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9b…e418backed Yes | 5c | 640$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb6…2db2backed Yes | 5c | 603$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe203…26abbacked Yes | 5c | 602$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd1c…61d7backed Yes | 6c | 595.16$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaec8…9c7abacked Yes | 5c | 534$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb0c…aaaabacked Yes | 6c | 514$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45bf…3456backed Yes | 6c | 505$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbff9…286dbacked Yes | 6c | 492$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23a6…9b56backed Yes | 5c | 438$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x380d…e1efbacked Yes | 5c | 410.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8045…2dc9backed Yes | 5c | 405$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd58c…8954backed Yes | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2811…5965backed Yes | 6c | 396$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d98…642abacked Yes | 5c | 378$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…bd3cbacked Yes | 5c | 369$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c99…8260backed Yes | 5c | 362$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 6c | 305.68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 366 | 26.8%98 W · 268 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee7a…b68dbacked Yes | 5c | 295.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca54…8f1fbacked Yes | 5c | 288$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 4c | 284.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 120 | 23.3%28 W · 92 L | +10.9wins | +0.09per pick | 14cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will France strike Iran by April 30?this page
- Will Canada strike Iran by April 30?No won
- Will Germany strike Iran by April 30?No won
- Will Jordan strike Iran by April 30?No won
- Will Kuwait strike Iran by April 30?No won
- Will Oman strike Iran by April 30?No won
- Will Qatar strike Iran by April 30?No won
- Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30?No won
- Will Turkey strike Iran by April 30?No won
- Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?No won
- Will UK strike Iran by April 30?No won
- Will any E.U. country strike Iran by April 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.