Middle East · resolved market
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x858071dbcd97be6e31f8467cba92fcb09d1d767d46da407e4434438a188b04a2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,848,712
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,047,323
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,848,712 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 763 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb1fa…1a14backed Yes | 20c | 209,537$41,858 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41,857.69 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -3.0wins | -0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -87.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e38…9042backed Yes | 28c | 69,146$19,229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,228.87 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 16c | 54,530$8,508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,508.1 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9fe…f135backed Yes | 21c | 33,482$7,141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,140.96 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93fb…3e4abacked Yes | 16c | 32,456$5,171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,170.54 | 70 | 32.9%23 W · 47 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6872…876fbacked Yes | 19c | 27,686$5,156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,155.93 | 96 | 13.5%13 W · 83 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b56…715ebacked No | 78c | 26,445$20,674 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,771.26 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x053d…caedbacked No | 77c | 24,173$18,572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,600.67 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -5.0wins | -0.18per pick | 39cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x01d1…12a4backed Yes | 20c | 21,628$4,360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,359.99 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | +8.1wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +99.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x54a7…881bbacked No | 78c | 19,114$15,004 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,110.45 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | -16.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc210…f0cabacked Yes | 17c | 19,057$3,333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,333 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c55…dbb9backed Yes | 12c | 17,888$2,108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,107.72 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +5.0wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2fad…f5c0backed No | 63c | 17,748$11,136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,612.8 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +9.1wins | +0.25per pick | 36cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc405…4affbacked No | 77c | 17,356$13,304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,051.91 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a8…5c27backed Yes | 22c | 15,853$3,503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,502.67 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 39c | 15,747$6,213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,212.81 | 218 | 31.2%68 W · 150 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc040…beacbacked Yes | 12c | 15,153$1,832 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,832.07 | 165 | 26.1%43 W · 122 L | +7.7wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d82…7d33backed No | 79c | 14,600$11,506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,093.88 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…eecfbacked No | 78c | 14,000$10,940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,060 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf19…6402backed Yes | 13c | 13,695$1,829 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,829.47 | 103 | 35.9%37 W · 66 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f66…3a50backed No | 71c | 12,363$8,821 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,541.91 | 182 | 46.2%84 W · 98 L | -15.4wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…98eebacked No | 77c | 11,687$9,046 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,640.94 | 201 | 43.3%87 W · 114 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c41…d286backed Yes | 20c | 10,455$2,039 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,039.4 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92a6…8b84backed No | 73c | 10,000$7,334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,666.17 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Yes | 15c | 9,517$1,398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,397.98 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +30%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…331abacked No | 73c | 9,212$6,754 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,458.84 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3df…f557backed Yes | 35c | 8,638$2,982 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,981.7 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde8f…8fd8backed No | 75c | 8,518$6,380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,138.26 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25d7…c2bfbacked Yes | 9c | 8,300$745 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$745.5 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 21c | 8,277$1,754 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,754.21 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81e0…2c3bbacked Yes | 18c | 8,037$1,476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,475.71 | 92 | 22.8%21 W · 71 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d3…0e0fbacked No | 75c | 7,928$5,955 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,972.38 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed No | 66c | 7,704$5,107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,597.14 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e0f…9556backed Yes | 40c | 7,636$3,021 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,020.82 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked Yes | 17c | 7,517$1,283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,282.72 | 174 | 14.4%25 W · 149 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c5b…fd67backed Yes | 19c | 7,000$1,330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,330 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa94f…6d6fbacked No | 57c | 6,991$3,972 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,019.61 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a81…a925backed Yes | 10c | 6,882$681 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$680.57 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | -4.5wins | -0.17per pick | 21cpaid | -93.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x23ed…256cbacked Yes | 1c | 6,794$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd576…d5e3backed Yes | 23c | 6,677$1,555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,555.14 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9916…54dcbacked No | 74c | 6,303$4,653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,650.31 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x878f…1755backed Yes | 16c | 6,280$992 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$992.43 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -4.1wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe620…03acbacked Yes | 25c | 6,119$1,510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,510 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +86.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6815…e90fbacked Yes | 27c | 6,066$1,615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,615.35 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed No | 80c | 6,000$4,780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,220 | 353 | 47%166 W · 187 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb89f…1c44backed No | 74c | 5,964$4,390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,573.63 | 69 | 42%29 W · 40 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -24%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde7b…5f4bbacked Yes | 20c | 5,906$1,167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,167.08 | 152 | 30.3%46 W · 106 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2140…605fbacked Yes | 18c | 5,450$1,003 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,003.49 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73b8…f6b5backed No | 79c | 5,293$4,205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,087.75 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa43a…94b2backed Yes | 19c | 5,240$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52e1…cc23backed Yes | 5c | 5,040$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x449c…879ebacked Yes | 23c | 4,759$1,091 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,091.47 | 136 | 50%68 W · 68 L | +9.2wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked No | 78c | 4,683$3,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,032.98 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 22c | 4,504$1,006 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,005.71 | 152 | 32.9%50 W · 102 L | +15.8wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9453…1a48backed No | 71c | 4,490$3,193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,296.22 | 132 | 46.2%61 W · 71 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4fc…a926backed No | 77c | 4,100$3,171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$928.99 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -5.6wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd650…c3a4backed Yes | 14c | 4,085$586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585.95 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 16c | 4,011$656 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$656.07 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45b6…676fbacked Yes | 25c | 4,000$998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$997.5 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 23cpaid | +195.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb4c…6d64backed Yes | 20c | 4,000$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…fc71backed Yes | 25c | 4,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +93.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cf…88fabacked No | 75c | 4,000$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$999.93 | 81 | 45.7%37 W · 44 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d19…8f93backed Yes | 8c | 3,802$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.86 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…f2cbbacked Yes | 1c | 3,800$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.54 | 76 | 10.5%8 W · 68 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c12…79d9backed Yes | 14c | 3,681$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 49 | 6.1%3 W · 46 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 12cpaid | -89.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92e2…1a7cbacked Yes | 11c | 3,500$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.21per pick | 21cpaid | +268%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed No | 77c | 3,497$2,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$796.75 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -10.5wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1d81…5c1ebacked Yes | 23c | 3,463$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8129…5f30backed Yes | 18c | 3,417$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630.1 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -3.5wins | -0.14per pick | 19cpaid | -85.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8e44…94fabacked No | 77c | 3,397$2,616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$781.27 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +2.9wins | +0.16per pick | 62cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ca…1705backed No | 77c | 3,366$2,584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$782.33 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked No | 68c | 3,357$2,298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,059.38 | 362 | 27.9%101 W · 261 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3c…70cabacked Yes | 31c | 3,215$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…5d99backed No | 68c | 3,153$2,159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$994.33 | 127 | 44.9%57 W · 70 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +91.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9e2f…2e84backed Yes | 15c | 3,150$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.5 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a2…a79abacked Yes | 14c | 3,143$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 58 | 29.3%17 W · 41 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcca9…4c9fbacked No | 78c | 3,089$2,409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$679.97 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -34%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03e2…bd8abacked Yes | 33c | 3,019$997 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$997.08 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8213…083bbacked Yes | 23c | 3,000$704 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$703.71 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0649…a47bbacked Yes | 27c | 2,958$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 17c | 2,944$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.21 | 292 | 54.8%160 W · 132 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x10e1…aa05backed Yes | 3c | 2,941$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbf…edb8backed Yes | 17c | 2,941$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | +197.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf66b…b1d1backed Yes | 13c | 2,924$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.07 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x05fc…f78ebacked No | 76c | 2,862$2,170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$692.26 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd677…a495backed No | 65c | 2,828$1,840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$988.07 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…bf3dbacked Yes | 11c | 2,798$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.62 | 183 | 38.3%70 W · 113 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed No | 77c | 2,750$2,109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$641 | 287 | 34.5%99 W · 188 L | +21.3wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7164…7ff7backed Yes | 20c | 2,705$548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$548.15 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaab…24ddbacked No | 78c | 2,700$2,096 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$604 | 88 | 34.1%30 W · 58 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…b779backed Yes | 5c | 2,666$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 6c | 2,650$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.71 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 8c | 2,598$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.94 | 215 | 21.9%47 W · 168 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d46…e9a2backed No | 77c | 2,592$1,993 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$598.52 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99d1…2fddbacked Yes | 9c | 2,513$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 31cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…0a8abacked Yes | 21c | 2,510$527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$527.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe70f…02eebacked Yes | 9c | 2,489$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.64 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 7c | 2,470$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.26 | 371 | 7%26 W · 345 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x420e…e3c9backed Yes | 15c | 2,446$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.86 | 187 | 38%71 W · 116 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac0…55f3backed No | 69c | 2,426$1,665 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$760.87 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?this page
- Will Canada strike Iran by April 30?No won
- Will France strike Iran by April 30?No won
- Will Germany strike Iran by April 30?No won
- Will Jordan strike Iran by April 30?No won
- Will Kuwait strike Iran by April 30?No won
- Will Oman strike Iran by April 30?No won
- Will Qatar strike Iran by April 30?No won
- Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30?No won
- Will Turkey strike Iran by April 30?No won
- Will UK strike Iran by April 30?No won
- Will any E.U. country strike Iran by April 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.