TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will UK strike Iran by April 30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$280,515
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$211,932

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $280,515 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 100 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x485a…21cbbacked Yes4c12,761$551 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$551.48147.1%1 W · 13 L-1.5wins-0.11per pick18cpaid-87.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes2c12,172$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.1242818.7%80 W · 348 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-28.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6872…876fbacked Yes2c11,673$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.379613.5%13 W · 83 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-54.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb1fa…1a14backed Yes4c7,934$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.8248.3%2 W · 22 L-3.0wins-0.12per pick21cpaid-87.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8129…5f30backed Yes4c7,236$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310.16244.2%1 W · 23 L-3.5wins-0.14per pick19cpaid-85.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9f09…2848backed Yes8c5,887$462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$462.475437%20 W · 34 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+15%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f57…61e5backed Yes4c4,129$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.73119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick19cpaid-85.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3c3c…70cabacked Yes6c3,543$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.96616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick26cpaid-70.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd5db…3c45backed Yes1c3,371$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.3212037.5%45 W · 75 L+9.1wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+12.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe953…027abacked Yes4c3,198$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.5610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked Yes3c3,047$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.194814.6%7 W · 41 L-2.7wins-0.06per pick20cpaid-67.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9386…b2b7backed Yes4c2,949$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.841010%1 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick16cpaid-83.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e59…b2bebacked Yes4c2,814$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005817.2%10 W · 48 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick17cpaid+97.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x26b4…b8a9backed Yes1c2,506$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.55540%2 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.33per pick7cpaid+409.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed Yes4c2,370$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.123717%26 W · 345 L+10.6wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x037d…161bbacked Yes4c2,231$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.93616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-62.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes2c2,115$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.375071.4%7 W · 500 L0.0wins0.00per pick1cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes2c1,947$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.314195.3%22 W · 397 L+1.4wins0.00per pick5cpaid-15.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes4c1,834$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.847135.6%40 W · 673 L+11.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc040…beacbacked Yes3c1,725$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.9116526.1%43 W · 122 L+7.7wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ed2…545cbacked Yes4c1,675$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.6510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes4c1,670$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.662217.2%16 W · 205 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc02c…e90dbacked Yes4c1,657$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.9710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc6af…05c6backed Yes2c1,644$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274742.6%20 W · 27 L+5.4wins+0.12per pick31cpaid+49%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x672c…f9e2backed Yes3c1,614$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.8810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5715…1616backed Yes2c1,611$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3011527%31 W · 84 L+7.6wins+0.07per pick20cpaid+14.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xac3e…3b0fbacked Yes7c1,541$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.852425%6 W · 18 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick26cpaid+89.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed Yes4c1,529$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.7149023.5%115 W · 375 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-21.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcfe0…b492backed Yes4c1,482$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.08911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-85.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e52…3757backed Yes4c1,474$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.5930%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d70…0044backed Yes4c1,392$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5130%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf3d4…88debacked Yes4c1,389$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5050%0 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a80…a983backed Yes2c1,345$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.92633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-38.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xde8d…e4cebacked Yes3c1,290$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.8610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6bb8…d688backed Yes4c1,289$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.4930%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x412c…2d87backed Yes2c1,289$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.147433.8%25 W · 49 L+11.5wins+0.16per pick18cpaid+259.1%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x9e0d…f91dbacked Yes4c1,281$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.6810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes4c1,274$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.841,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3674…2fc6backed Yes3c1,229$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.46128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick11cpaid-75.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8a7…6a84backed Yes3c1,212$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.2120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd4e4…9803backed Yes3c1,153$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ad0…bf3dbacked Yes4c1,150$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.7718338.3%70 W · 113 L+14.5wins+0.08per pick30cpaid-13.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7948…9917backed Yes3c1,061$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.441414.3%2 W · 12 L-1.7wins-0.12per pick26cpaid-76.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3d96…cdc8backed Yes3c1,046$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.5610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5894…5729backed Yes5c1,033$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick18cpaid+0.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6dc3…6660backed Yes4c1,033$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$411127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick22cpaid+11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ee1…e2bbbacked Yes4c1,021$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404124.4%10 W · 31 L+3.3wins+0.08per pick16cpaid+4.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdecc…da07backed Yes4c1,020$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.0710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe4e…5c37backed Yes4c1,008$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b0d…fec9backed Yes1c1,000$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14296.9%2 W · 27 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-72.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbdf3…7b91backed Yes4c991$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.6810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6cf5…2110backed Yes4c990$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.6510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x89b1…9efdbacked Yes3c975$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf654…d618backed Yes3c960$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.6410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d3d…8a29backed Yes4c936$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.7610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e49…0631backed Yes4c930$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.5520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4491…3c65backed Yes4c917$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdaec…e829backed Yes4c903$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.6130%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa947…09ebbacked Yes4c893$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc221…8d04backed Yes4c881$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.7210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ce4…3a52backed Yes4c871$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefc7…cf33backed Yes3c866$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.4410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7acd…1086backed Yes7c860.71$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.251488.1%12 W · 136 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick5cpaid+238.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc9da…1365backed Yes3c860$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.2420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe5f8…5feabacked Yes3c851.21$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.6475%3 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.50per pick25cpaid+386.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x570d…7acbbacked Yes4c845$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.5830%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes4c837.6$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.9510913.8%15 W · 94 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-42.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9b8…3703backed Yes3c815$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.7110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad52…11acbacked Yes4c777$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.0844224.4%108 W · 334 L+22.2wins+0.05per pick19cpaid+19.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x72bd…2b64backed Yes3c742.85$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.771711.8%2 W · 15 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick10cpaid-67.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3329…2f5cbacked Yes3c714.29$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25677.5%5 W · 62 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-66.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes4c700$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.71245.6%7 W · 117 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec09…1db9backed Yes5c700$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.512927.6%8 W · 21 L-3.1wins-0.11per pick38cpaid-45.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0ae6…6fefbacked Yes4c670$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.1220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9b2…c884backed Yes4c650.78$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.9940%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x424a…04cebacked Yes4c640.58$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.261612.5%2 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick17cpaid-80.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b14…31c6backed Yes3c635$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.5910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfba9…cb2cbacked Yes4c600$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214812.5%6 W · 42 L-4.1wins-0.08per pick21cpaid+102.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x15c7…fd0ebacked Yes4c581$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.9210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed Yes3c580.92$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.3736626.8%98 W · 268 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x64b2…a9f8backed Yes2c501.35$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10520%1 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.15per pick5cpaid+12%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc44a…8da6backed Yes7c500$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$357123.9%17 W · 54 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-20.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1cf…db68backed Yes4c498$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.9310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes3c481.5$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.45400%0 W · 40 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9208…7c32backed Yes3c456$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1861…e7a4backed Yes3c437$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd2a6…cfc0backed Yes2c402.25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.25per pick39cpaid-65.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes3c400$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.71703.5%6 W · 164 L+0.6wins0.00per pick3cpaid+16.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes3c400$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.11693.6%6 W · 163 L-0.8wins0.00per pick4cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66a1…80d9backed Yes6c399.99$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231976.6%13 W · 184 L-0.8wins0.00per pick7cpaid-27.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe85c…ed6bbacked Yes3c378.17$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.92303.3%1 W · 29 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick2cpaid+51.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x206a…fb8fbacked Yes4c371$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x42a2…5ff1backed Yes4c354$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0668…a581backed Yes3c352$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b42…9fc4backed Yes3c351.97$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.943528.6%10 W · 25 L-4.3wins-0.12per pick41cpaid-52.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdaf3…57f7backed Yes7c336.86$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.242516%4 W · 21 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-57.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xff05…0a63backed Yes4c328.54$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.710428.8%30 W · 74 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick25cpaid-10.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes4c300$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122438.2%20 W · 223 L+0.4wins0.00per pick8cpaid-47.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa998…d1f2backed Yes5c240$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.12425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-51.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd1c…61d7backed Yes9c177.78$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161010%1 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick18cpaid-74.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.