Middle East · resolved market
Will UK strike Iran by April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf578bfe8d63c0babdb74afe7f963c8669f1ae85bee15bad5e215da95578c0d8e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $280,515
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $211,932
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $280,515 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 100 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x485a…21cbbacked Yes | 4c | 12,761$551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$551.48 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 18cpaid | -87.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 2c | 12,172$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.12 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6872…876fbacked Yes | 2c | 11,673$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.37 | 96 | 13.5%13 W · 83 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fa…1a14backed Yes | 4c | 7,934$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.8 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -3.0wins | -0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -87.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8129…5f30backed Yes | 4c | 7,236$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.16 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -3.5wins | -0.14per pick | 19cpaid | -85.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f09…2848backed Yes | 8c | 5,887$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.47 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f57…61e5backed Yes | 4c | 4,129$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.73 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 19cpaid | -85.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3c…70cabacked Yes | 6c | 3,543$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.96 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5db…3c45backed Yes | 1c | 3,371$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.32 | 120 | 37.5%45 W · 75 L | +9.1wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe953…027abacked Yes | 4c | 3,198$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 3c | 3,047$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.19 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9386…b2b7backed Yes | 4c | 2,949$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.84 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -83.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e59…b2bebacked Yes | 4c | 2,814$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +97.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26b4…b8a9backed Yes | 1c | 2,506$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.55 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.33per pick | 7cpaid | +409.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 4c | 2,370$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.12 | 371 | 7%26 W · 345 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x037d…161bbacked Yes | 4c | 2,231$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.93 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 2c | 2,115$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.37 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 2c | 1,947$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.31 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 4c | 1,834$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.84 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc040…beacbacked Yes | 3c | 1,725$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.91 | 165 | 26.1%43 W · 122 L | +7.7wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed2…545cbacked Yes | 4c | 1,675$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 4c | 1,670$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.66 | 221 | 7.2%16 W · 205 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc02c…e90dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,657$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6af…05c6backed Yes | 2c | 1,644$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | +5.4wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +49%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x672c…f9e2backed Yes | 3c | 1,614$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5715…1616backed Yes | 2c | 1,611$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 115 | 27%31 W · 84 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac3e…3b0fbacked Yes | 7c | 1,541$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.85 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +89.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 4c | 1,529$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.71 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe0…b492backed Yes | 4c | 1,482$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.08 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e52…3757backed Yes | 4c | 1,474$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.59 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d70…0044backed Yes | 4c | 1,392$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d4…88debacked Yes | 4c | 1,389$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a80…a983backed Yes | 2c | 1,345$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.92 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde8d…e4cebacked Yes | 3c | 1,290$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb8…d688backed Yes | 4c | 1,289$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.49 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x412c…2d87backed Yes | 2c | 1,289$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.14 | 74 | 33.8%25 W · 49 L | +11.5wins | +0.16per pick | 18cpaid | +259.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9e0d…f91dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,281$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 1,274$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.84 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3674…2fc6backed Yes | 3c | 1,229$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.46 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a7…6a84backed Yes | 3c | 1,212$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e4…9803backed Yes | 3c | 1,153$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…bf3dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,150$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.77 | 183 | 38.3%70 W · 113 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7948…9917backed Yes | 3c | 1,061$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.44 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d96…cdc8backed Yes | 3c | 1,046$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5894…5729backed Yes | 5c | 1,033$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…6660backed Yes | 4c | 1,033$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee1…e2bbbacked Yes | 4c | 1,021$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 41 | 24.4%10 W · 31 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 16cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdecc…da07backed Yes | 4c | 1,020$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe4e…5c37backed Yes | 4c | 1,008$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0d…fec9backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf3…7b91backed Yes | 4c | 991$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf5…2110backed Yes | 4c | 990$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89b1…9efdbacked Yes | 3c | 975$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf654…d618backed Yes | 3c | 960$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d3d…8a29backed Yes | 4c | 936$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e49…0631backed Yes | 4c | 930$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4491…3c65backed Yes | 4c | 917$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdaec…e829backed Yes | 4c | 903$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.61 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa947…09ebbacked Yes | 4c | 893$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc221…8d04backed Yes | 4c | 881$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce4…3a52backed Yes | 4c | 871$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefc7…cf33backed Yes | 3c | 866$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7acd…1086backed Yes | 7c | 860.71$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.25 | 148 | 8.1%12 W · 136 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +238.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9da…1365backed Yes | 3c | 860$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f8…5feabacked Yes | 3c | 851.21$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.50per pick | 25cpaid | +386.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x570d…7acbbacked Yes | 4c | 845$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.58 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 4c | 837.6$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.95 | 109 | 13.8%15 W · 94 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b8…3703backed Yes | 3c | 815$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 4c | 777$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.08 | 442 | 24.4%108 W · 334 L | +22.2wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72bd…2b64backed Yes | 3c | 742.85$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.77 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3329…2f5cbacked Yes | 3c | 714.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 67 | 7.5%5 W · 62 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 4c | 700$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.7 | 124 | 5.6%7 W · 117 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec09…1db9backed Yes | 5c | 700$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.51 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ae6…6fefbacked Yes | 4c | 670$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b2…c884backed Yes | 4c | 650.78$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x424a…04cebacked Yes | 4c | 640.58$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.26 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -80.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b14…31c6backed Yes | 3c | 635$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfba9…cb2cbacked Yes | 4c | 600$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 48 | 12.5%6 W · 42 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +102.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x15c7…fd0ebacked Yes | 4c | 581$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 3c | 580.92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.37 | 366 | 26.8%98 W · 268 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64b2…a9f8backed Yes | 2c | 501.35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 5cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc44a…8da6backed Yes | 7c | 500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 71 | 23.9%17 W · 54 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1cf…db68backed Yes | 4c | 498$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 3c | 481.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 40 | 0%0 W · 40 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9208…7c32backed Yes | 3c | 456$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1861…e7a4backed Yes | 3c | 437$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a6…cfc0backed Yes | 2c | 402.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.25per pick | 39cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes | 3c | 400$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 170 | 3.5%6 W · 164 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes | 3c | 400$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 169 | 3.6%6 W · 163 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 6c | 399.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 197 | 6.6%13 W · 184 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe85c…ed6bbacked Yes | 3c | 378.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 30 | 3.3%1 W · 29 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x206a…fb8fbacked Yes | 4c | 371$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42a2…5ff1backed Yes | 4c | 354$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0668…a581backed Yes | 3c | 352$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b42…9fc4backed Yes | 3c | 351.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -4.3wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf3…57f7backed Yes | 7c | 336.86$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.24 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff05…0a63backed Yes | 4c | 328.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 104 | 28.8%30 W · 74 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 243 | 8.2%20 W · 223 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa998…d1f2backed Yes | 5c | 240$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd1c…61d7backed Yes | 9c | 177.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will UK strike Iran by April 30?this page
- Will Canada strike Iran by April 30?No won
- Will France strike Iran by April 30?No won
- Will Germany strike Iran by April 30?No won
- Will Jordan strike Iran by April 30?No won
- Will Kuwait strike Iran by April 30?No won
- Will Oman strike Iran by April 30?No won
- Will Qatar strike Iran by April 30?No won
- Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30?No won
- Will Turkey strike Iran by April 30?No won
- Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?No won
- Will any E.U. country strike Iran by April 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.