Middle East · resolved market
Will Germany strike Iran by April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1e7e748cebf819c1f1acfd0eabac97bab0a9898da135a30965599ce40e4f5e24
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $133,140
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $127,585
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $133,140 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdec8…82f5backed Yes | 4c | 2,851$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22a5…ab68backed Yes | 4c | 2,722$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 2c | 2,500$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad4…bc2ebacked Yes | 4c | 2,428$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6589…cf25backed Yes | 4c | 2,086$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 1c | 1,804$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07cf…a2e3backed Yes | 4c | 1,541$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb185…4972backed Yes | 4c | 1,466$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e55…6296backed Yes | 4c | 1,409$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74de…2b77backed Yes | 4c | 1,064$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc47…bef7backed Yes | 4c | 1,060$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 2c | 1,020$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 221 | 7.2%16 W · 205 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0810…b9b8backed Yes | 3c | 1,020$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73ef…83f8backed Yes | 3c | 977$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d25…1f48backed Yes | 3c | 964$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41ad…42eebacked Yes | 3c | 957$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecd3…64f8backed Yes | 3c | 951$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…6234backed Yes | 3c | 917$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd1c…61d7backed Yes | 4c | 905.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c34…dc9bbacked Yes | 1c | 900$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95bd…c2c2backed Yes | 3c | 896$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86bd…f036backed Yes | 3c | 891$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.06 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5044…eb3dbacked Yes | 3c | 823$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…1af1backed Yes | 4c | 805$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x157d…62cfbacked Yes | 4c | 804$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1473…9cebbacked Yes | 3c | 790$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17b7…0cc7backed Yes | 3c | 760$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8513…0249backed Yes | 4c | 744$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 2c | 699.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x904c…eb57backed Yes | 4c | 696$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ee…1939backed Yes | 4c | 694$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26c9…e011backed Yes | 3c | 636$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3cb…c857backed Yes | 3c | 602$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1722…36ffbacked Yes | 3c | 595$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa72c…4c2ebacked Yes | 4c | 583$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5835…4ba6backed Yes | 3c | 563$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f12…50a9backed Yes | 4c | 524$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53b6…970abacked Yes | 4c | 501$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed5a…441bbacked Yes | 3c | 497$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc106…a94abacked Yes | 3c | 494$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0b…fd1fbacked Yes | 4c | 445$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc06f…f952backed Yes | 3c | 434$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee7a…b68dbacked Yes | 4c | 424.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 3c | 399.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 197 | 6.6%13 W · 184 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Germany strike Iran by April 30?this page
- Will Canada strike Iran by April 30?No won
- Will France strike Iran by April 30?No won
- Will Jordan strike Iran by April 30?No won
- Will Kuwait strike Iran by April 30?No won
- Will Oman strike Iran by April 30?No won
- Will Qatar strike Iran by April 30?No won
- Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30?No won
- Will Turkey strike Iran by April 30?No won
- Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?No won
- Will UK strike Iran by April 30?No won
- Will any E.U. country strike Iran by April 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.