TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Qatar strike Iran by April 30?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$56,438
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$48,538

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,438 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcb9b…2b8fbacked Yes8c5,427$441 inLost-$440.6720%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd650…c3a4backed Yes4c5,098$187 inLost-$187.49300%0 W · 30 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes2c1,747$42 inLost-$41.755071.4%7 W · 500 L0.0wins0.00per pick1cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes3c1,665$53 inLost-$52.5742818.7%80 W · 348 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-28.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a81…a925backed Yes5c1,527$70 inLost-$70263.8%1 W · 25 L-4.5wins-0.17per pick21cpaid-93.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed Yes3c1,342$37 inLost-$36.5349023.5%115 W · 375 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-21.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes3c892.1$27 inLost-$26.91,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes6c659.05$36 inLost-$36.26721.4%1 W · 71 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-67.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0fea…8b63backed Yes5c567.26$26 inLost-$26.1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x18d4…d6cfbacked Yes4c545.81$20 inLost-$204436.4%16 W · 28 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-20.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x335c…6e62backed Yes4c512.8$19 inLost-$18.592213.6%3 W · 19 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-19.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed Yes4c494.33$21 inLost-$20.7536626.8%98 W · 268 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes3c484$12 inLost-$12.482282.6%6 W · 222 L+0.6wins0.00per pick2cpaid-42.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5715…1616backed Yes6c466.69$28 inLost-$2811527%31 W · 84 L+7.6wins+0.07per pick20cpaid+14.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes3c423$12 inLost-$12.1350130.5%153 W · 348 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-30.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0641…e368backed Yes5c365$19 inLost-$19.3510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d1a…d391backed Yes6c358.74$21 inLost-$211315.4%2 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick13cpaid-36.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes3c358.44$12 inLost-$11.777636.9%286 W · 490 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-35.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfba9…cb2cbacked Yes4c306.24$12 inLost-$11.944812.5%6 W · 42 L-4.1wins-0.08per pick21cpaid+102.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6e84…8c6bbacked Yes5c268$14 inLost-$14.250%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd15e…bb9ebacked Yes5c265$14 inLost-$13.7840%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa5ef…c618backed Yes5c247$13 inLost-$13.0930%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbac2…c978backed Yes5c247$13 inLost-$13.0920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes5c228.73$12 inLost-$12400%0 W · 40 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5d1b…8475backed Yes5c205$11 inLost-$10.8740%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7951…6b0cbacked Yes5c205$11 inLost-$10.87425%1 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick6cpaid+696.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1a8b…cf2ebacked Yes7c148.93$10 inLost-$101127.3%3 W · 8 L+2.2wins+0.20per pick7cpaid+332.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.