TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x73b8…f6b5

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
80
Categories scored
14
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: Us Midterms, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.07 per pick).

Best Category Us Midterms at 57 out of 100; worst Token Launches at 49.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
World Politics Inactivelast resolved May 17, 2026, EDT2729.6%8 W · 19 L0.0wins0.00per pick29cpaid-33.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
World Politics — the 27 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by any margin?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$95.96
Will Keiko Fujimori win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by less than 5%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$731Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$731.29
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by between 10% and 15%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.72
Will Keiko Fujimori win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by at least 5%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$1,091Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT+97.7%+$1,066.58
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+134.2%+$46.99
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$176Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+68.2%+$120.05
Will Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$277Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$276.73
Will Tisza win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$102Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$102.38
Will another outcome occur in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$160Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$42.42
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 0-3%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.09
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 3-6%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$34.34
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 9%+?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$82Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT+223.8%+$183.02
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 6-9%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$46.95
Will another person win the South Korean election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$245Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$245.14
Will Karol Nawrocki win by over 8%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$141Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$140.79
Will Karol Nawrocki win by 4-8%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$609Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$609.49
Will another candidate win the Polish presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$22.07
Will Karol Nawrocki win by 0-4%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$1,728Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT+250.3%+$4,324.66
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$335Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$335.16
Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$3,151Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$3,151.16
Will George Simion win by 6–12%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$1,305Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,305.21
Will George Simion win by over 18%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$560Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$560.35
Will George Simion win by 0–6%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$1,934Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,934.07
Will George Simion win by 12–18%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$796Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$796.35
Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$1,435Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2025, EDT+106%+$1,521.73
Showing 25 of 27 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved May 4, 2026, EDT1346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$1,209Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,208.71
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$4,205Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+25.9%+$1,087.75
US/Israel strike on Fordow nuclear facility by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$85Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$85
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$88Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$88
Nothing Ever Happens: Khameneibacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$314Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+27.6%+$86.5
Nothing Ever Happens: Israel Editionbacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+50%+$27.63
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$1,590Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$1,590.2
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$5,661Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$5,660.72
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$4,763Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$4,762.59
Will US or Israel strike Iran by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$4,144Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+134.7%+$5,580.48
Will US or Israel strike Iran by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$1,869Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+83.3%+$1,555.93
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$1,374Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+411%+$5,645.43
Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$27.39
All 13 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved May 27, 2026, EDT955.6%5 W · 4 L+2.3wins+0.25per pick31cpaid+110.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$7,414Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT+116.5%+$8,638.67
Will James Talarico and John Cornyn be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$483Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT+387.7%+$1,873.67
Will Zohran Mamdani get between 40% and 50% of the vote in 2025 NYC mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$56.26
Will Zohran Mamdani win by less than 5%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$33
Will Zohran Mamdani win by 15–20%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$75
Will Zohran Mamdani win by 10–15%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$63.3
Will Zohran Mamdani win by 5–10%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST+710.8%+$263
Zohran Mamdani Parlaybacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$1,003Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST+129.4%+$1,297.2
Will Mamdani get over 50% of the vote in the general mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$6,703Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST+51.9%+$3,477.62
All 9 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 31, 2026, EDT728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick25cpaid+374.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Dec 10, 2025, EST560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Nov 22, 2025, EST425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-68.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Mar 29, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick41cpaid+34.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Arizona Wildcats (-6.5)backed Arizona Wildcats · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT+100%+$36.05
Spread: Iowa State Cyclones (-3.5)backed Tennessee Volunteers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$288Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$299.45
Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Arizona Wildcatsbacked Arkansas Razorbacks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$238Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$238.47
All 3 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jun 27, 2025, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+29.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
AI — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Grok 4.20 released by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$97Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$96.86
Will Grok 4.20 not be released by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$66Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+159.1%+$104.4
All 2 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Dec 20, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-37.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Boxing — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Anthony Joshua win his boxing match against Jake Paul?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$133Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST-100%-$132.8
Who will win Jake Paul vs Anthony Joshua?backed Joshua · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$665Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST+25%+$166.16
All 2 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-33.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Movies — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved May 12, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$3,497Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+40.5%+$1,416.77
All 1 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Feb 26, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Manchester United wins the Premier League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$275Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2025, EST-100%-$275
All 1 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Jan 12, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Steelers win Super Bowl 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$102Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2025, EST-100%-$102.19
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.