World Politics · resolved market
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by any margin?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x72bf021e264f8f376b32c10612d275b4e2901f4cc204660fb5d9d9cfee266c20
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,796
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,621
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,796 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 9 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x73b8…f6b5backed Yes | 32c | 296.23$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.96 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 61c | 76.78$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.76 | 322 | 55%177 W · 145 L | +14.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d81…3610backed No | 71c | 75.46$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x833c…0c6fbacked No | 63c | 71.14$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.27 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +203.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2891…fa1dbacked Yes | 27c | 65.88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65a5…f5b7backed No | 65c | 21.03$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 13cpaid | +622.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 57c | 19.66$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 260 | 52.3%136 W · 124 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed No | 73c | 15.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.11 | 46 | 63%29 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1029…9b36backed No | 80c | 13.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.8 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by any margin?this page
- Will Carlos Álvarez win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by any margin?No won
- Will Keiko Fujimori win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by at least 5%?Yes won
- Will Keiko Fujimori win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by less than 5%?No won
- Will Rafael López Aliaga win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by at least 15%?No won
- Will Rafael López Aliaga win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by between 10% and 15%?No won
- Will Rafael López Aliaga win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by between 5% and 10%?No won
- Will Rafael López Aliaga win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by less than 5%?No won
- Will another outcome occur in the the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.