TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Keiko Fujimori win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by less than 5%?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$209,115
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$163,706

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $209,115 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 183 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x629b…995abacked Yes19c18,229$3,449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,448.6243243.1%186 W · 246 L+29.2wins+0.07per pick36cpaid-7.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x26ea…357ebacked Yes56c8,641$4,853 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,853.0350%0 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes50c7,672$3,845 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,844.5154934.6%190 W · 359 L-37.0wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-27.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc291…48aebacked Yes20c6,233$1,262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,261.5740%0 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8ea1…c38ebacked Yes20c5,961$1,173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,172.782524%6 W · 19 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-59.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe790…63d2backed Yes35c5,283$1,864 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,863.64757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-14%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8797…bbbebacked Yes37c4,810$1,770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,770.122142.9%9 W · 12 L+2.9wins+0.14per pick29cpaid+50.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes20c4,770$933 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$932.776741.8%28 W · 39 L+8.1wins+0.12per pick30cpaid+7.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes23c4,239$981 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$981.475313.2%7 W · 46 L-8.5wins-0.16per pick29cpaid-80.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x9163…82aebacked Yes51c3,307$1,702 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,701.6822725.1%57 W · 170 L+0.6wins0.00per pick25cpaid-28.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e32…535bbacked Yes10c3,214$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.7928430.3%86 W · 198 L+0.8wins0.00per pick30cpaid-29.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7664…2e50backed No74c3,173$2,340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$832.363234.4%11 W · 21 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-21.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes53c2,347$1,243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,24326139.8%104 W · 157 L+16.3wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+32.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x73b8…f6b5backed Yes34c2,157$731 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$731.292729.6%8 W · 19 L0.0wins0.00per pick29cpaid-33.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x98d0…f14abacked No73c2,087$1,515 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$572.7314947.7%71 W · 78 L+6.9wins+0.05per pick43cpaid-6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6996…cf9abacked Yes1c2,022$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.18170%0 W · 17 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa056…0f70backed Yes13c1,974$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.172330.4%7 W · 16 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick27cpaid-15%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7447…a16dbacked No35c1,971$694 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,276.92142.9%9 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-22%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5294…d176backed Yes18c1,787$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.2860%0 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb420…3d77backed Yes29c1,673$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$490.4460%0 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x404a…9bf5backed Yes19c1,550$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick25cpaid+44.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed No78c1,500$1,170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33025337.2%94 W · 159 L+8.0wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf30d…f053backed Yes19c1,468$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283.4920%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes23c1,399$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.176883.6%25 W · 663 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-59.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a76…53debacked Yes38c1,313$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001216.7%2 W · 10 L-2.4wins-0.20per pick36cpaid-66.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x44aa…d1d5backed Yes38c1,215$458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$458.27728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick37cpaid+28.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e31…5571backed Yes18c1,080$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.4366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5bf6…6deabacked Yes20c1,076$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.0430%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef14…3edabacked Yes14c1,035$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.371323.1%3 W · 10 L-3.2wins-0.25per pick48cpaid-64%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0xe8d0…6d36backed Yes10c1,019$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001040%4 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-32.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb29…b898backed Yes43c978.76$419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41920%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No67c949.21$640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$308.91,02228%286 W · 736 L+1.6wins0.00per pick28cpaid-34.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0275…d186backed Yes57c922.21$529 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$529.51346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-27.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce28…0b58backed Yes16c865.26$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe00a…330ebacked Yes65c847.36$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5501464.3%9 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick64cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd632…8afbbacked Yes40c846.17$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342.48630.2%26 W · 60 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+11.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x167a…91d5backed Yes47c840.31$396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$395.756835.3%24 W · 44 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-28.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3fbb…3f66backed Yes12c734.4$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.591030%3 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-36.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e0a…b9ccbacked Yes43c716.8$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.882433.3%8 W · 16 L-2.3wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-33.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes38c662.83$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.146330.2%140 W · 323 L-20.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-19%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes16c652.68$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.544766.5%31 W · 445 L-8.9wins-0.02per pick8cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9470…989dbacked Yes19c633.38$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.7260%0 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x63cf…52b4backed Yes8c621.44$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick30cpaid+15.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f15…0ce5backed Yes19c539.38$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.61513.3%2 W · 13 L-2.6wins-0.18per pick31cpaid+20.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x6b60…9c7ebacked Yes22c514.26$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.921947.4%9 W · 10 L+1.8wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb053…bcdebacked Yes13c508.49$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$661216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-20.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4860…c5e4backed Yes18c500.93$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes25c474.78$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.288129.6%24 W · 57 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-44.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c07…956bbacked Yes36c468$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.48540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-41.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa28b…2832backed Yes44c412.37$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.05580%4 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.22per pick58cpaid+46.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6af6…296ebacked Yes14c396.89$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.63540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+16.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa774…005fbacked Yes43c390$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1671952.6%10 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7db8…ed19backed Yes17c385.45$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.31850%9 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5508…f7fdbacked Yes35c366.68$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13060%0 W · 6 L-2.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes6c358.16$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.468716.1%14 W · 73 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-33.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf780…8396backed Yes21c357.61$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.67616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick22cpaid-39.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No58c345.21$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.2115356.2%86 W · 67 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0781…c4ffbacked No42c343.07$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.369035.6%32 W · 58 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d60…453dbacked Yes32c334.81$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1071637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-24.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3978…4309backed Yes23c331$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.361735.3%6 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-40.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a98…1b92backed No59c310.35$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.124355.8%24 W · 19 L+6.3wins+0.15per pick41cpaid+52%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xaf1b…8306backed No14c304.75$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.482128.6%6 W · 15 L-2.4wins-0.12per pick40cpaid+11.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbbea…e2b0backed No33c304$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.691631.3%5 W · 11 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-25.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1c7…d291backed Yes20c300$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-49.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes51c291.25$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.737919%15 W · 64 L-3.7wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-46.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe904…2d9fbacked Yes14c280.26$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.36825%2 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-47.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7131…b3a6backed Yes18c280$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.281637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-11.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked No43c275$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.8514027.9%39 W · 101 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-38.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc668…4f06backed Yes36c264.77$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.323243.8%14 W · 18 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick47cpaid+17.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No62c263.53$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.6888448.5%429 W · 455 L-2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e14…4254backed Yes57c262.82$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d66…fc54backed No64c235$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.61457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb593…28eabacked No64c233$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.88944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+15.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8444…1cf9backed Yes48c230$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.848142%34 W · 47 L-0.3wins0.00per pick42cpaid+9.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked No69c214.16$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.7810261.8%63 W · 39 L+13.2wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+20.8%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x2c41…133ebacked Yes12c211.2$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.846533.8%22 W · 43 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+11.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd8f…6f11backed Yes20c210$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.81346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick56cpaid-40.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9934…6078backed Yes66c200$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1324456.8%25 W · 19 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a53…7a6fbacked Yes70c200$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.95534.5%19 W · 36 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-14.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x633b…2c2ebacked Yes11c200$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.630%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe59a…1967backed Yes15c199.55$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.34837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.18per pick19cpaid+57.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4290…fd1abacked Yes17c199.13$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.75633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-46.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed Yes32c198.88$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.1415355.6%85 W · 68 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa24d…38b2backed Yes16c197.71$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.0310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x56ed…d9b5backed No45c195.25$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.392100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+88%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x60a9…5a71backed Yes11c191.95$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.635527.3%15 W · 40 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick28cpaid+26.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c83…cf0abacked No60c191.93$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.353951.3%20 W · 19 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xac16…4f44backed Yes37c190.63$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.95768.4%39 W · 18 L+11.1wins+0.19per pick49cpaid+38.2%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x9660…8bb6backed No61c187.32$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.541457.1%8 W · 6 L+2.1wins+0.15per pick42cpaid+57.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0b65…013ebacked No50c186.5$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.065942.4%25 W · 34 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-17%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes13c161.39$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.994721.3%10 W · 37 L+4.4wins+0.09per pick12cpaid+31.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x302e…88ccbacked Yes18c154.72$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.692138.1%8 W · 13 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick31cpaid+40.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9292…3724backed Yes24c154.01$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.861136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-35%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0b5…cb05backed Yes20c153.41$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick40cpaid+45.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x81e2…63fbbacked Yes40c149.6$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.25per pick58cpaid-56.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbc76…6a4fbacked No17c146.09$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.092040%8 W · 12 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-15.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc51b…f006backed No80c144.27$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.27580%4 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick71cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f3d…457ebacked Yes12c137.5$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.021625%4 W · 12 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+41.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed Yes15c137$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5528434.2%97 W · 187 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a24…2605backed Yes39c130$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.720%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.