TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xa056…0f70

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
61
Categories scored
7
Categories below 50
3

Best Category: Music, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category Music at 55 out of 100; worst AI at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Aug 5, 2026, EDT2416.7%4 W · 20 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 24 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$14
Will Larry Rhoden win the 2026 South Dakota Governor Republican primary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT+771.1%+$183.53
Will Dusty Johnson win the 2026 South Dakota Governor Republican primary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.67
Will John Fleming be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$36.69
Will Julia Letlow be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$69.9
Will Jamie Davis Jr. be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Louisiana?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.35
Will Gary Crockett be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Louisiana?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.07
Will Steve Marshall be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$62.82
Will Earl Carter be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.89
Will Rob Adkerson be the Republican nominee for GA-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$54.6
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by between 3% and 6%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.5
Will Samuel Forstag be the Democratic nominee for MT-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT+685%+$71.5
Will Zach Wahls be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Iowa?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$118Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$117.52
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$63Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$38.59
Will David Brock Smith be the Republican nominee for Senate in Oregon?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$58Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT+39%+$22.47
Will Ala Stanford be the Democratic nominee for PA-03?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.24
Will Cherlynn Stevenson be the Democratic Nominee for KY-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$42.26
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$48.24
Will the Virginia constitutional amendment referendum pass by less than 3%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$79Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$78.61
Will the Virginia constitutional amendment referendum pass by 3-6%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.12
Will the Virginia constitutional amendment referendum pass by 6-9%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.8
Will the Virginia constitutional amendment referendum pass by 9-12%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.66
Will the Virginia constitutional amendment referendum pass by 12-15%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.07
All 24 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 6, 2026, EDT2330.4%7 W · 16 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick27cpaid-15%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 23 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$239Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$238.66
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$1,034Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,034.28
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$550Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$549.5
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.67
Will AKEL win the most seats at the Cyprus House of Representatives election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.44
Will Keiko Fujimori win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by less than 5%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$260Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$260.17
Will Keiko Fujimori win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by at least 5%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$219Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT+128%+$280.8
Will Jorge Nieto finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$77Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$77.14
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$113Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$112.71
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$335Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT+34.4%+$115.44
Will the Labour Party win the second-most council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$87Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$98.62
Will Rowenna Davis win the 2026 London Borough of Croydon mayoral election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2026, EDT+185.7%+$52
Will Jason Perry win the 2026 London Borough of Croydon mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2026, EDT+413.4%+$111.12
Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$182Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$182.16
Will the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT+284.6%+$88.8
Will the Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPI(M)) win the most seats in the 2026 Kerala Legislative Assembly election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$303Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$302.7
Will the Indian National Congress (INC) win the most seats in the 2026 Kerala Legislative Assembly election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$58.3
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$202Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$201.54
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$153Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT+95.7%+$146.86
Will Union Party win the most seats in the Løgting in the 2026 Faroese general election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$39
Will Republic win the most seats in the Løgting in the 2026 Faroese general election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.98
Will Social Democratic Party win the most seats in the Løgting in the 2026 Faroese general election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.84
Will People's Party win the most seats in the Løgting in the 2026 Faroese general election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$80
All 23 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT50%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Middle East — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved May 15, 2026, EDT3100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+105.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Music — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tweets Inactivelast resolved Apr 24, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-48%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved May 19, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
AI — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Gemini 3.2 released by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.1
Gemini 3.2 released by May 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.2
All 2 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved May 5, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+186.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on May 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT+186.9%+$67.1
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.