Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Dusty Johnson win the 2026 South Dakota Governor Republican primary election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6912f57515190db649735f6d70f004291335136da50ea181632f6d5e6f89a0d4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,139
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,736
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,139 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 97 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f9e…4f1abacked Yes | 58c | 2,143$1,244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,243.79 | 228 | 33.8%77 W · 151 L | +13.7wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7131…b3a6backed Yes | 56c | 1,999$1,125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,124.54 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Yes | 60c | 1,337$802 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$802.2 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 49c | 1,119$544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$543.79 | 196 | 43.4%85 W · 111 L | +15.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed No | 46c | 901.3$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486.11 | 210 | 33.3%70 W · 140 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 53c | 703.57$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.85 | 343 | 33.5%115 W · 228 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 50c | 699.23$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.07 | 115 | 22.6%26 W · 89 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd65…927fbacked Yes | 29c | 656.74$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.39 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 57c | 606.42$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.05 | 272 | 22.1%60 W · 212 L | -15.0wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 47c | 491.62$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.82 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Yes | 23c | 460$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.93 | 103 | 61.2%63 W · 40 L | +9.5wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 39c | 399.99$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154 | 244 | 33.2%81 W · 163 L | +11.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 57c | 309.68$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.64 | 450 | 35.1%158 W · 292 L | -37.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed No | 39c | 300$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 50c | 299.38$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.1 | 183 | 37.7%69 W · 114 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 71c | 275.17$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.43 | 172 | 40.7%70 W · 102 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4e…a139backed Yes | 14c | 260$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x814d…b842backed Yes | 48c | 246$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119 | 75 | 34.7%26 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce4d…d0e2backed Yes | 38c | 234.95$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.03 | 74 | 37.8%28 W · 46 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5529…e5b9backed Yes | 44c | 217.23$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.14 | 229 | 48.9%112 W · 117 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 53c | 210.44$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.52 | 335 | 21.8%73 W · 262 L | -24.0wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed No | 78c | 209$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.45 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x841f…bbd0backed Yes | 41c | 200$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 44c | 173.8$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.33 | 136 | 25.7%35 W · 101 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -30%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x173a…eb85backed No | 59c | 172$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.52 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…0882backed No | 40c | 159.99$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.99 | 180 | 41.1%74 W · 106 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda66…3f38backed Yes | 67c | 149.75$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 68cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe291…9806backed No | 68c | 148.81$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.87 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 72c | 142.12$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.17 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75f7…7bd9backed No | 50c | 140$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f7…2d3cbacked No | 40c | 130.11$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.07 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed No | 60c | 126$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.46 | 211 | 61.1%129 W · 82 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed No | 62c | 124$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.12 | 88 | 31.8%28 W · 60 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbea2…2d33backed No | 62c | 122$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.99 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 12c | 119.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 90 | 10%9 W · 81 L | -20.0wins | -0.22per pick | 32cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xa056…0f70backed Yes | 13c | 115.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 48c | 104.35$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.15 | 341 | 29.3%100 W · 241 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f61…a33bbacked Yes | 73c | 101.35$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Yes | 69c | 100$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 72c | 99.99$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 87 | 40.2%35 W · 52 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 52c | 96.01$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.65 | 87 | 41.4%36 W · 51 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…0357backed Yes | 61c | 93.98$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.33 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 62c | 90$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 123 | 30.9%38 W · 85 L | -10.0wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaddc…c226backed Yes | 51c | 90$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 56c | 89.47$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.54 | 332 | 38.6%128 W · 204 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 46c | 77.33$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.76 | 155 | 31%48 W · 107 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 53c | 70.98$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.23 | 136 | 47.1%64 W · 72 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 75c | 63$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.69 | 60 | 36.7%22 W · 38 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 61c | 59.86$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.56 | 250 | 30.8%77 W · 173 L | -9.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 72c | 56.82$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.73 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 39c | 53.53$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.83 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x07ec…0ec4backed No | 53c | 51$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.97 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…f14abacked No | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 143 | 56.6%81 W · 62 L | +18.5wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked No | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 93 | 26.9%25 W · 68 L | -8.2wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked No | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 83 | 43.4%36 W · 47 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04b7…dbaabacked Yes | 55c | 49.07$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa667…ceb3backed Yes | 50c | 47.4$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.47 | 87 | 57.5%50 W · 37 L | +9.9wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…5bc1backed No | 58c | 46.22$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.42 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 37c | 43.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 497 | 11.5%57 W · 440 L | -17.8wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35d5…077cbacked Yes | 54c | 42.76$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.09 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf16…01cbbacked Yes | 43c | 40.93$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x211b…1872backed Yes | 35c | 40.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.33per pick | 53cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22a9…1afcbacked Yes | 66c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeec4…30b5backed Yes | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes | 46c | 38.19$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 75 | 24%18 W · 57 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed Yes | 50c | 38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…fa0bbacked No | 57c | 36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.38 | 73 | 39.7%29 W · 44 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x976e…ecf3backed Yes | 44c | 35.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 60c | 31.06$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 205 | 42%86 W · 119 L | -11.4wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ecd…84b4backed Yes | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ab2…b321backed Yes | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 109 | 46.8%51 W · 58 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2177…3fb4backed Yes | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc18e…44e3backed No | 44c | 27.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.31 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +61.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa5…888fbacked Yes | 39c | 26.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65c3…b5e5backed Yes | 41c | 26.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 74c | 26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.77 | 95 | 78.9%75 W · 20 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 74cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8c…ad4bbacked Yes | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -33%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8862…bbf5backed No | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 23 | 78.3%18 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 73cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb95f…d6b0backed No | 60c | 23.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Yes | 63c | 22.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 82 | 58.5%48 W · 34 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 60c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfe…de4dbacked No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a04…1448backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 65cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb477…673ebacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 37 | 73%27 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb6c…ee14backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 27 | 74.1%20 W · 7 L | +4.0wins | +0.15per pick | 59cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc92b…1db5backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd640…480cbacked Yes | 52c | 19.64$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +115.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbd1…1da0backed No | 56c | 18.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.23 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x257b…d288backed No | 56c | 18.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.23 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0199…4e86backed Yes | 58c | 17.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 57c | 17.4$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 67c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -38%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8221…22bcbacked Yes | 61c | 16.96$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe7…5ab1backed No | 74c | 16.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.37 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Dusty Johnson win the 2026 South Dakota Governor Republican primary election?this page
- Will Jon Hansen win the 2026 South Dakota Governor Republican primary election?No won
- Will Larry Rhoden win the 2026 South Dakota Governor Republican primary election?Yes won
- Will Toby Doeden win the 2026 South Dakota Governor Republican primary election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.