Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Toby Doeden win the 2026 South Dakota Governor Republican primary election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe53a3545d1b55e0075b3f4863d538e959dc722c066293a0f41ce5a429ee9fcd0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $65,456
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $59,872
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $65,456 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 155 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked Yes | 19c | 12,055$2,253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,252.91 | 37 | 8.1%3 W · 34 L | -5.0wins | -0.13per pick | 22cpaid | -86.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…ef76backed Yes | 43c | 4,518$1,965 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,965.1 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ca…1705backed No | 56c | 3,484$1,951 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,532.86 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 33c | 2,841$950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$950.02 | 343 | 33.5%115 W · 228 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b80…cdf9backed Yes | 46c | 2,721$1,247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,247.08 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93a9…0b88backed No | 53c | 2,293$1,205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,087.92 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -20%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 77c | 2,216$1,702 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$514.03 | 90 | 35.6%32 W · 58 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 30c | 1,573$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.33 | 210 | 33.3%70 W · 140 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77a1…de3dbacked Yes | 52c | 1,347$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 47c | 1,174$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$624.05 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 80c | 1,010$805 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.86 | 182 | 37.4%68 W · 114 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 59c | 926.2$545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.73 | 147 | 29.9%44 W · 103 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9163…82aebacked Yes | 67c | 891.86$597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$596.62 | 139 | 19.4%27 W · 112 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 45c | 854.91$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.61 | 115 | 22.6%26 W · 89 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 55c | 708.4$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.98 | 107 | 39.3%42 W · 65 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x819f…f3e7backed No | 64c | 655.33$417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.52 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +3.5wins | +0.14per pick | 22cpaid | +99.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 63c | 598.88$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.04 | 332 | 38.6%128 W · 204 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed Yes | 37c | 570.47$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 211 | 61.1%129 W · 82 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 56c | 558.23$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.52 | 171 | 40.4%69 W · 102 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…0882backed No | 54c | 526.9$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.12 | 180 | 41.1%74 W · 106 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 34c | 501.44$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.14 | 334 | 21.9%73 W · 261 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d5…8935backed Yes | 38c | 500$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x814d…b842backed Yes | 53c | 483.49$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.89 | 75 | 34.7%26 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe291…9806backed No | 63c | 479.94$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.94 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 56c | 428.62$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.19 | 131 | 43.5%57 W · 74 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 55c | 421$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.92 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 43c | 400$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.63 | 196 | 31.1%61 W · 135 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd65…927fbacked Yes | 41c | 400$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.7 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f9e…4f1abacked No | 67c | 395.45$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.69 | 228 | 33.8%77 W · 151 L | +13.7wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29d3…b2edbacked No | 56c | 390$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.6 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +61.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 48c | 353.8$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.87 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked No | 75c | 347$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.98 | 196 | 43.4%85 W · 111 L | +15.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x976e…ecf3backed Yes | 25c | 295$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.75 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 64c | 274.11$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.62 | 449 | 35.2%158 W · 291 L | -37.6wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1150…e701backed Yes | 38c | 268.37$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0459…1572backed Yes | 5c | 259.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 21c | 244.77$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.28 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce4d…d0e2backed Yes | 49c | 235$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.15 | 74 | 37.8%28 W · 46 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2955…0738backed Yes | 14c | 229$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.04 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11f8…ed31backed No | 60c | 226$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.4 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 34cpaid | +168.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07ee…8dfebacked Yes | 9c | 225$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | +8.6wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed Yes | 26c | 222.66$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.31 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 33c | 221.42$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.98 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942b…e25ebacked No | 65c | 216.18$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.16 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5529…e5b9backed Yes | 36c | 213.98$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.39 | 228 | 48.7%111 W · 117 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 31c | 212.81$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.02 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x755d…6accbacked Yes | 36c | 205$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.95 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 48c | 204.66$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.08 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd0…047fbacked Yes | 34c | 200$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd76…77bdbacked No | 47c | 200$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 66c | 198.86$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.8 | 135 | 46.7%63 W · 72 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…fa0bbacked No | 63c | 197.76$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 73 | 39.7%29 W · 44 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 26c | 194.07$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.24 | 244 | 33.2%81 W · 163 L | +11.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf155…76bdbacked No | 69c | 185.68$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 63c | 183.37$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.85 | 211 | 55.9%118 W · 93 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0778…73d1backed Yes | 56c | 179.86$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.05 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 48c | 173.87$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.62 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed Yes | 37c | 173$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.01 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 48c | 167$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.38 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -38%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed Yes | 37c | 155.53$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.89 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x939f…292ebacked No | 66c | 154.59$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.56 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 63c | 140$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.3 | 122 | 31.1%38 W · 84 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39a2…96e2backed No | 53c | 132.17$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +89.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked No | 63c | 126$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.62 | 83 | 43.4%36 W · 47 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 46c | 125.62$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.71 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 34c | 124.71$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.78 | 160 | 20.6%33 W · 127 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbea2…2d33backed No | 56c | 122$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.05 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…0357backed No | 63c | 120.6$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.27 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 29c | 116.17$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.22 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff0f…c5efbacked Yes | 43c | 115.85$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.95 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -40%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed No | 61c | 114$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.1 | 74 | 47.3%35 W · 39 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafb1…0329backed No | 59c | 112.37$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.07 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb651…2089backed No | 62c | 111.66$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.45 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 28c | 110.69$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.33 | 494 | 11.5%57 W · 437 L | -17.4wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed No | 67c | 103.21$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.46 | 88 | 31.8%28 W · 60 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4590…c7e4backed No | 58c | 102.96$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.96 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.9wins | +0.36per pick | 51cpaid | +108.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 35c | 102.2$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.07 | 109 | 47.7%52 W · 57 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3b…3ad8backed Yes | 29c | 101$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x705b…7483backed Yes | 78c | 100$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 75cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe340…39f9backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9159…0246backed Yes | 64c | 90.75$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 36c | 89.48$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.21 | 248 | 31%77 W · 171 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 49c | 86.42$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.92 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 20c | 85.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 183 | 10.4%19 W · 164 L | -9.7wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 33c | 84.7$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.88 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed No | 64c | 80.89$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.28 | 73 | 24.7%18 W · 55 L | -5.8wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x69e4…2101backed Yes | 39c | 79$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.81 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76e4…ce2fbacked Yes | 59c | 73.88$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 32c | 72.25$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.85 | 136 | 25.7%35 W · 101 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -30%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 32c | 72$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.63 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08e0…bfdfbacked Yes | 63c | 70.23$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cec…6dd3backed Yes | 59c | 67.8$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed Yes | 38c | 67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.46 | 78 | 43.6%34 W · 44 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8db…9403backed Yes | 33c | 64.8$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 68c | 63.75$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 81 | 32.1%26 W · 55 L | -8.8wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes | 32c | 62.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 75 | 24%18 W · 57 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04b7…dbaabacked Yes | 32c | 61.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d60…6df2backed Yes | 52c | 60.12$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.18 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 55c | 54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.47 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Toby Doeden win the 2026 South Dakota Governor Republican primary election?this page
- Will Dusty Johnson win the 2026 South Dakota Governor Republican primary election?No won
- Will Jon Hansen win the 2026 South Dakota Governor Republican primary election?No won
- Will Larry Rhoden win the 2026 South Dakota Governor Republican primary election?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.