TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xe340…39f9

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
77
Categories scored
15
Categories below 50
8

Best Category: Venezuela, grading 58 out of 100 (+0.07 per pick).

Best Category Venezuela at 58 out of 100; worst AI at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved May 13, 2026, EDT2429.2%7 W · 17 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-28.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 24 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump visit China by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$57
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+78.6%+$15.71
Trump cabinet member out by December 31, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Trump’s approval rating be 40.0–41.9% on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$60
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Vietnam"?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$40
Will Zohran Mamdani win by >9%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$40
Will Trump release the Epstein files by November 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST+35.1%+$35.14
Will Zohran Mamdani praise Donald Trump on Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST-100%-$50
Will Trump and Mamdani shake hands for between 2 and 6 seconds on November 21 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will Trump say "Bus" during Mamdani events on November 21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will anyone vote "No" to releasing the Epstein files?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$299Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST+90.5%+$270.93
House passes Epstein disclosure bill/resolution in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST+29.9%+$29.87
Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST+354.5%+$70.91
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST+76.1%+$76.1
U.S. Closes Airspace due to Government Shutdown?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$112Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$112
Will the government shutdown end November 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$374Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$373.6
Will between 223 and 224 U.S. House members vote "Yea" on the next funding bill by November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Will between 219 and 220 U.S. House members vote "Yea" on the next funding bill by November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$13.5
Will between 221 and 222 U.S. House members vote "Yea" on the next funding bill by November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST+360.8%+$72.16
Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 12, 2025, EST-100%-$60
Will the government shutdown end November 11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$340Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 12, 2025, EST-100%-$340
Will the government shutdown end November 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will the Government shutdown end November 4-7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 8, 2025, EST-100%-$47
All 24 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Aug 5, 2026, EDT1127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.15per pick42cpaid-51.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Tim Greimel be the Democratic Nominee for MI-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$64.4
Will Joe S. San Agustin win the 2026 Guam Governor Democratic primary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.03
Will Josh Tenorio win the 2026 Guam Governor Democratic primary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$47.21
Will Toby Doeden win the 2026 South Dakota Governor Republican primary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$35
Will Robert Charles win the 2026 Maine Governor Republican primary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$63
Will Nate Morris be the Republican nominee for Senate in Kentucky?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT+59.5%+$18.28
Will Andy Barr be the Republican nominee for Senate in Kentucky?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$70.3
Will Mikie Sherrill win by >14%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$975Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST-100%-$974.67
Will Mamdani get over 50% of the vote in the general mayoral election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will Andrew Cuomo win Staten Island?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST+127.3%+$25.45
Will the Associated Press first call the 2025 NYC mayoral election between 9:00 PM and 9:59 PM ET on Nov 4 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST+49.3%+$49.25
All 11 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 21, 2026, EDT757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.25per pick32cpaid+90.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Middle East — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2026, EST683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.1wins+0.35per pick48cpaid+61.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved May 2, 2026, EDT520%1 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.19per pick39cpaid-70.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST50%0 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
AI — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Mar 24, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-29.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 14, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+40%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Nov 24, 2025, EST30%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Olympics Inactivelast resolved Feb 22, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+66.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Olympics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MLB Inactivelast resolved Apr 14, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+6.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
MLB — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Cleveland Guardians vs. St. Louis Cardinalsbacked St. Louis Cardinals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$455Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$513.15
New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Dodgersbacked New York Mets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$386Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$385.6
All 2 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Nov 16, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Chiefs vs. Broncosbacked Broncos · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST+61.3%+$12.26
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jun 2, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$82Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$82
All 1 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Mar 6, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Pistons vs. Spursbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$46
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.