Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump’s approval rating be 40.0–41.9% on December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x256868e81f0f749648d2b99f46a00a5add1d3be3d0a09dfc19db9a9cd544a64b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $103,888
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $92,822
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $103,888 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 112 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 12c | 15,870$1,925 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,925.07 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 41c | 8,768$3,623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,623.01 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 36c | 8,232$2,976 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,975.74 | 178 | 50%89 W · 89 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 11c | 7,500$825 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$825 | 355 | 19.7%70 W · 285 L | -16.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c87…fce0backed Yes | 30c | 2,229$671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$671.04 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe103…59fdbacked Yes | 15c | 2,200$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.02 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2803…0dd7backed Yes | 14c | 985.71$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 48c | 882.06$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$458.55 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | +5.6wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +20%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 47c | 855.1$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.21 | 193 | 28.5%55 W · 138 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed No | 35c | 574.56$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.69 | 139 | 43.2%60 W · 79 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfc2…0b59backed No | 41c | 540.27$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.1 | 127 | 40.2%51 W · 76 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c4…0926backed Yes | 54c | 500$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507c…4166backed Yes | 36c | 498.45$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.23 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…de22backed Yes | 67c | 467.59$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.2 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13fb…9cf8backed Yes | 57c | 436.14$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 25c | 426.78$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.88 | 336 | 27.4%92 W · 244 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 14c | 421.12$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.8 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb2…3e05backed Yes | 10c | 400.79$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.91 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4cf…2d96backed Yes | 65c | 388.54$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.48 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd622…defcbacked No | 53c | 385$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.99 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…1ed3backed No | 49c | 349.99$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 49c | 317.51$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.75 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 32c | 300$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.23 | 196 | 38.8%76 W · 120 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5cf…90e6backed Yes | 45c | 289$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.05 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -53%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ea…a152backed Yes | 50c | 287$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Yes | 50c | 273.87$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.25 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | -11.1wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xef54…c997backed Yes | 48c | 234.86$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.04 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…7bd2backed No | 67c | 229$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked No | 53c | 226.47$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.8 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fce…2566backed Yes | 68c | 222.85$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.54 | 61 | 26.2%16 W · 45 L | -8.3wins | -0.14per pick | 40cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a8…9b29backed No | 55c | 205$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.33 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 46c | 201.49$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.82 | 336 | 18.5%62 W · 274 L | -46.5wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -60%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5aca…cad6backed No | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 36cpaid | +150.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 77c | 191.62$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.24 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed No | 48c | 190.24$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.49 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x293b…09a9backed No | 51c | 190$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdb7…6cd5backed Yes | 33c | 185$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 53c | 183.24$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.66 | 76 | 56.6%43 W · 33 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef14…bf21backed No | 63c | 178$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.86 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96e9…4b32backed No | 75c | 175$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.75 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f3…be1dbacked No | 52c | 173$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.04 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d3…a77bbacked No | 50c | 170.95$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.13 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 61cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea1…6487backed Yes | 49c | 166$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.34 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fae…6853backed Yes | 49c | 165$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e57…6c04backed No | 51c | 165$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.85 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +61.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54d5…b5cebacked No | 53c | 159$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.73 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa647…d77dbacked Yes | 49c | 152$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 11c | 150$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.18per pick | 41cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x34fc…d14dbacked Yes | 49c | 145$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.05 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae0…4590backed Yes | 49c | 134$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.66 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x809a…f315backed Yes | 49c | 131.76$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.38 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 58cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb69a…7c05backed Yes | 54c | 127.58$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03ed…c077backed No | 41c | 125.44$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.53 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5243…a73cbacked Yes | 37c | 124$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.88 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +123.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Yes | 48c | 123.8$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc362…7f4fbacked No | 51c | 121$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82aa…2393backed Yes | 49c | 121$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.29 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -55%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa355…a3a2backed No | 53c | 116$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe340…39f9backed Yes | 55c | 109.18$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8acf…2f7bbacked No | 50c | 109$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 37cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7999…1d86backed Yes | 47c | 106.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98e3…c80fbacked Yes | 44c | 102.13$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.01 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4346…2241backed No | 50c | 93$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 30c | 92.89$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.45 | 365 | 27.1%99 W · 266 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b64…bd0ebacked No | 51c | 91$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.59 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19cd…f7ffbacked Yes | 47c | 90$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7170…ed44backed Yes | 47c | 90$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a5a…779cbacked Yes | 43c | 90$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 38c | 89.37$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.86 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06c1…f1f2backed Yes | 49c | 85$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.65 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d17…1e5ebacked Yes | 49c | 79$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd134…5558backed Yes | 37c | 73$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.01 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7534…d51bbacked No | 55c | 73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.85 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb85b…77dbbacked Yes | 48c | 68$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed Yes | 65c | 67.63$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.04 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63c2…ca53backed No | 62c | 57$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b32…c8a9backed No | 51c | 56$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7321…1812backed No | 55c | 52$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 252 | 41.7%105 W · 147 L | -17.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d1…a249backed Yes | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fde…cbbebacked Yes | 68c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.17 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 40cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd719…d8e5backed No | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda64…9bc5backed Yes | 47c | 49$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8624…b484backed Yes | 48c | 47$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a4…aa57backed No | 52c | 44$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf40f…7fc6backed No | 62c | 43$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3359…2273backed Yes | 38c | 41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 25c | 40.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 441 | 11.3%50 W · 391 L | -44.5wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 42c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.27 | 240 | 35.4%85 W · 155 L | -12.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf9b…f309backed No | 58c | 39$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x104f…9b3bbacked Yes | 33c | 36.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 51c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.02 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd483…6365backed No | 55c | 33.93$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfec…09a7backed Yes | 48c | 33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 40c | 29.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 320 | 29.1%93 W · 227 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfab2…9490backed Yes | 41c | 29.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 53c | 28.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.55 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99f7…8079backed Yes | 52c | 26.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.38per pick | 54cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbbd8…dfdcbacked Yes | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump’s approval rating be 40.0–41.9% on December 31?this page
- Will Trump’s approval rating be 42.0–43.9% on December 31?Yes won
- Will Trump’s approval rating be 44.0–45.9% on December 31?No won
- Will Trump’s approval rating be 46.0–47.9% on December 31?No won
- Will Trump’s approval rating be 48.0–49.9% on December 31?No won
- Will Trump’s approval rating be <40.0% on December 31?No won
- Will Trump’s approval rating be ≥50.0% on December 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.