TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xe9ea…a152

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
141
Categories scored
27
Categories below 50
14

Best Category: Weather, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Weather at 55 out of 100; worst Us Midterms at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 8, 2026, EDT2339.1%9 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick41cpaid+6.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 23 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
OpenAI receives federal backstop for infrastructure before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.16
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$252Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$252.28
Will Google Gemini score at least 55% on Humanity’s Last Exam?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$1,034Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$291.5
Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$581Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$581.41
Will the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) hit $2.75 (HIGH) by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$984Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$277.64
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$326Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$326.04
Will Craig Federighi be the next CEO of Apple?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.47
Will "Software" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$726Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$229.2
Will Tesla deliver between 350000 and 375000 vehicles in Q1 2026backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$78Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT+669.2%+$522
Will Artemis II launch by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$176Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$175.78
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$343Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+64%+$219.77
Will Sergey Brin be 3rd richest person on March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$130Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+257.1%+$335.52
Will "Ultra-wide" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$65.04
Paramount x Warner Bros. acquisition announced by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST+376.2%+$110.6
Will Anthropic have a #1 AI model by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$234Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$233.92
Google Gemini Parlaybacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST+28.2%+$56.54
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$274Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$273.87
Will HotSchedules be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on January 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$19.26
Will diVine launch iOS app by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$415Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$415.26
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$52.3
Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$23.96
Will Paramount acquire Warner Bros. Discovery?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$89Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST+72.4%+$64.26
Will the Gaza–Israel conflict be the #1 searched news on Google this year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$26.19
All 23 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT1947.4%9 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+26.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 19 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
2k+ container ship transits of Suez Canal in H1 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.97
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$441Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$440.86
Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$344Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$281.7
1k+ container ship transits of Suez Canal in Q1 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$36.48
Houthi military action against Israel by April 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.6
Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$73Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$72.52
Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 20, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$507Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT+194.1%+$984.06
Will Mojtaba Khamenei tweet again on March 20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$546Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$191.88
Will Khamenei tweet again by March 10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$370Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$369.63
US strikes Iraq by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$434Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST-100%-$434.24
Will USD reach 1.7M Iranian rials by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$510Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+25%+$127.4
Iran strike on Qatar by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$82Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+705.5%+$576.31
Will Israel strike ≥4 countries in February 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$60.06
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$374Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$373.6
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 4, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$98Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST+132.6%+$130.53
Will Trump establish a Gaza “Board of Peace” by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST+85.2%+$37.72
Will Israel strike 1 country in December 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$141Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST-100%-$141.44
Hezbollah strike on Israel by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$220Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+38.9%+$85.68
Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$43Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST+212.5%+$90.44
All 19 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jun 2, 2026, EDT1546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.6wins+0.11per pick36cpaid+27.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Weather — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Named storm forms before hurricane season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$204Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$203.82
Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$488Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$325.2
Will there be exactly 6 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$107Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$106.8
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from April 13 - April 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$71Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT+488.2%+$347.77
Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide by April 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$150.39
Will NYC have between 4 and 5 inches of precipitation in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$142Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$142.2
Will NYC have more than 6 inches of precipitation in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$262Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$261.95
Will there be at least 1550 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$99Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$121.55
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$62Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+376.2%+$234.63
Will NYC have less than 3 inches of precipitation in December?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$340Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+31.6%+$107.67
Will global temperature increase by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in November 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$193Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST+34.4%+$66.56
Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in November 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST-100%-$62.92
Will November 2025 be the 3rd hottest on record?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST-100%-$25.34
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in November 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$89Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST+88.7%+$78.49
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$52.53
All 15 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved May 20, 2026, EDT1353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Mother's Milk die in "The Boys: Season 5"?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$1,535Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$511.75
Will One Battle After Another win Best Film Editing at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.07
Will Marty Supreme win Best Original Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.17
Will Daniel Radcliffe say "Harry Potter" on Hot Ones?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$98Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2026, EST+143.9%+$141.01
Will Emma Stone be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$65Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+61.3%+$39.9
Will Rose Byrne be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$96Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+104.1%+$99.54
Will Amanda Seyfried be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$106Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$106.08
Will Jacob Elordi be nominated for Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+96.1%+$24.01
Will Mr. Nobody Against Putin be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$80.24
Will Avatar: Fire and Ash be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$130Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+138.1%+$179.22
Will Bugonia be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$144Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$143.5
Will "Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? (December 30, 2025)backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$118Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST+117.4%+$138.78
Will Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 17, 2025, EST-100%-$71.28
All 13 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 27, 2026, EDT1241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NBA — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will JB Bickerstaff win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$39.16
Will the Phoenix Suns make the NBA Playoffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$119Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$118.95
Will Tyrese Maxey lead the NBA in points during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.43
Will Victor Wembanyama lead the NBA in blocks during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$287Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$141.58
Will Dyson Daniels lead the NBA in steals during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$165Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$165.2
Will the New York Knicks win more than 53.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$194Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT+79.5%+$154.56
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2025–2026 NBA Southeast Division?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+354.5%+$156.78
Will the Washington Wizards win more than 20.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.21
Will the Milwaukee Bucks make the NBA Playoffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$160.08
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win more than 35.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$325Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$325.22
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo be traded this season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$223Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST+61.3%+$136.8
Will Keon Ellis be traded this season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST+63.9%+$17.94
All 12 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 4, 2026, EDT837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.19per pick57cpaid-47.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
World Politics — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Park Chan-dae win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$170Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$169.69
Will Fidesz-KDNP win at least 100 seats?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$673Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$261.8
Will Sergio Oliver Rodríguez win the 2026 Cochabamba gubernatorial election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$99.86
Will any of the stolen Louvre jewels be returned by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$84Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+38.6%+$32.32
Will turnout in the second round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election be between 84% and 86%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$98Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2025, EST-100%-$98.44
Will Franco Parisi endorse José Antonio Kast for President of Chile?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$104Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST-100%-$103.6
Will Baluta win by 0-3%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$128Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST-100%-$127.71
Will Daniel Băluță get between 25% and 30% of the vote in the Bucharest Mayoral election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$181Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST+38.9%+$70.56
All 8 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-31.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Music — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.16per pick32cpaid-67.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
IPO — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 13, 2026, EDT540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+52%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Apr 21, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-33.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved May 20, 2026, EDT40%0 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-38.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick57cpaid-49.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Commodities — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick10cpaid+316.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Stocks — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+27.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NFL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Apr 8, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before US x Iran ceasefire?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$160.29
Will Russia enter Lyman by November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$37.23
All 2 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Mar 23, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
CS2 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Liga Inactivelast resolved Feb 18, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
La Liga — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Villarreal CF win on 2025-12-14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST-100%-$26.52
Levante UD vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST-100%-$36.96
All 2 picks, newest first.
Asian League Inactivelast resolved Feb 24, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Asian League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Asian League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Al Hilal Saudi Club win on 2025-12-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST-100%-$30.78
Will Al Shabab Saudi Club win on 2025-12-20?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$159Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST-100%-$158.71
All 2 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Mar 24, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.85per pick15cpaid+566.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Tweets — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Khamenei post 20-39 posts from March 17 to March 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$133Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT+566.7%+$752.25
All 1 picks, newest first.
Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.80per pick20cpaid+400%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Hamburger SV vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 1.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$58Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+400%+$231.2
All 1 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 3, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Maduro leaves Venezuela by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$92Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+92.3%+$84.96
All 1 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Mar 8, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
UFC — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the announcers say "Nasty" during Holloway vs. Oliveira 2?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$281Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$114.84
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Feb 24, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Club Brugge advance to the round of 16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST+35.1%+$10.14
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Apr 7, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Jon Rothstein tweet "This is March" 51–60 times during March Madness?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$126Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$35.64
All 1 picks, newest first.
College Football Inactivelast resolved Dec 7, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
College Football — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will BYU make the College Football Playoff?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$22.53
All 1 picks, newest first.
F1 Inactivelast resolved Dec 7, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
F1 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Oscar Piastri finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$128Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$128.44
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.