Commodities · resolved market
Will Iran strike Abqaiq oil processing facility by March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6be90743c85abc7187c8800bee8cdf713627529a7fdf42b93426f2c33b2117fb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,287
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,825
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,287 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 110 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9453…1a48backed No | 69c | 3,382$2,335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,046.73 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x409a…4e8fbacked Yes | 34c | 2,333$793 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$793.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8e…9be8backed No | 72c | 2,026$1,459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$567.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaefa…f98ebacked Yes | 28c | 1,962$549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 12c | 1,803$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.63 | 59 | 16.9%10 W · 49 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 74c | 1,325$978 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.57 | 938 | 40.2%377 W · 561 L | -69.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 78c | 1,113$869 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.63 | 46 | 69.6%32 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked No | 72c | 1,050$761 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.17 | 93 | 63.4%59 W · 34 L | +12.1wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb132…6943backed Yes | 18c | 931$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.58 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -70.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 35c | 912.53$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.21 | 48 | 20.8%10 W · 38 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xead6…911fbacked No | 66c | 822$543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.48 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8c…26fdbacked Yes | 28c | 811$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ea…a152backed No | 66c | 801$528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…a432backed No | 66c | 751$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63c6…d030backed Yes | 14c | 707.6$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf25b…2584backed Yes | 13c | 615.82$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.69 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 18cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…588ebacked Yes | 17c | 534.11$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 68c | 499.13$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.9 | 79 | 35.4%28 W · 51 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf49…6cfebacked No | 72c | 471$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedc2…ad9fbacked Yes | 40c | 433.29$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.97 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 73c | 432.84$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.65 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb85d…4ac4backed No | 71c | 420.81$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.81 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 68cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36fe…3ab1backed Yes | 24c | 399.99$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc2…1e51backed Yes | 26c | 386.43$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.03 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8837…d7a0backed Yes | 22c | 364.4$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.14 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 19cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…72febacked No | 69c | 359.75$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa60e…d332backed Yes | 31c | 354.31$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.84 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71ab…0af0backed Yes | 35c | 341.09$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b8a…89e9backed Yes | 26c | 333.32$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.91 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 37c | 321.82$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.56 | 353 | 34%120 W · 233 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12c2…aa71backed Yes | 18c | 307$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 20c | 287.84$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.93 | 96 | 16.7%16 W · 80 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f36…2819backed Yes | 18c | 281.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64c9…6bdebacked No | 72c | 276$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd1a…b1dabacked Yes | 18c | 260.72$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.93 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…4577backed Yes | 34c | 237.06$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c4a…1b2fbacked Yes | 34c | 233.29$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e5…d252backed Yes | 33c | 211$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.63 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x612d…3fd1backed No | 67c | 211$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 21c | 199.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -33%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 67c | 180$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.49 | 107 | 39.3%42 W · 65 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…1db1backed No | 69c | 161.74$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.14 | 41 | 70.7%29 W · 12 L | +5.2wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8179…4403backed No | 66c | 151.01$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.01 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc63b…da3fbacked Yes | 30c | 150$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.5 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed No | 44c | 140$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf58a…2a4fbacked No | 65c | 133.37$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aac…dfadbacked Yes | 23c | 133.04$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 44 | 72.7%32 W · 12 L | +7.1wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x717f…3fb1backed No | 61c | 110.71$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.69 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +79.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x845c…0407backed Yes | 21c | 104.65$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -4.2wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x08cb…6741backed No | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32f8…a7d2backed No | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +99.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0433…23dfbacked Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf66b…b1d1backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked No | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.31 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +5.3wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf040…3a86backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.01 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a5e…8c8bbacked No | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e86…1c5dbacked No | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10d7…eb3bbacked No | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +3.4wins | +0.15per pick | 57cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7334…81dabacked Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 18c | 95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 154 | 46.8%72 W · 82 L | +17.9wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe885…38efbacked Yes | 27c | 94.07$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 32cpaid | -71%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd46b…5dabbacked Yes | 31c | 91.41$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +7.7wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4f90…517dbacked No | 68c | 90$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.97 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +3.3wins | +0.25per pick | 52cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 22c | 86.48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.37 | 218 | 15.6%34 W · 184 L | -37.8wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 33-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 22c | 84.58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 194 | 19.1%37 W · 157 L | -35.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 70c | 83.97$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.33 | 238 | 46.6%111 W · 127 L | +13.3wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 30c | 83.95$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.52 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | -94.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb559…5e7cbacked Yes | 31c | 81.61$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +75.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd282…a206backed No | 64c | 80.9$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.12 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce3f…67c9backed Yes | 28c | 80$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x602a…8feabacked Yes | 65c | 77.08$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 68cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8c…ad4bbacked Yes | 48c | 73.42$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.24 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8c…2e0dbacked Yes | 27c | 71.23$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.19 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 31c | 69.83$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.65 | 212 | 28.8%61 W · 151 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 67c | 64.07$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.83 | 138 | 58%80 W · 58 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40e0…69e3backed Yes | 63c | 60$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -4.7wins | -0.36per pick | 59cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x084f…8b8ebacked Yes | 53c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed No | 74c | 52.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.78 | 117 | 34.2%40 W · 77 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -26%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90b9…1951backed Yes | 48c | 52.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.33 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb63f…793cbacked No | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…9c58backed No | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ebb…0614backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -4.2wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xac98…7281backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9de6…e6f5backed No | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 44cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9db5…37eabacked Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a3…203abacked Yes | 35c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked Yes | 51c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 148 | 49.3%73 W · 75 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf98d…9df5backed Yes | 32c | 46.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8adc…6b14backed Yes | 33c | 45.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fd…c3b8backed No | 66c | 45.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 35c | 41.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 307 | 18.6%57 W · 250 L | -17.8wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -34%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41d3…3db7backed No | 66c | 41.27$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.03 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc97e…ea6fbacked Yes | 37c | 40.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 44cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9797…c193backed Yes | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cbe…8076backed No | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 79c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -12.9wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d8…3df4backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…2a1fbacked Yes | 56c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | -8.7wins | -0.20per pick | 39cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7d48…6244backed No | 76c | 32.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Iran strike Abqaiq oil processing facility by March 31?this page
- Will Iran strike Al Zour Refinery by March 31?No won
- Will Iran strike Burj Khalifa by March 31?No won
- Will Iran strike Dimona by March 31?No won
- Will Iran strike East–West Crude Oil Pipeline by March 31?No won
- Will Iran strike Ghawar Field by March 31?No won
- Will Iran strike Habshan Field or any Processing Plants of the Habshan Complex by March 31?No won
- Will Iran strike Khurais Field by March 31?No won
- Will Iran strike Leviathan Field by March 31?No won
- Will Iran strike Mina Al-Ahmadi Refinery by March 31?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Ras Laffan Industrial City again by March 31?No won
- Will Iran strike Ras Tanura by March 31?No won
- Will Iran strike Ruwais Refinery by March 31?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Safaniya Field by March 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.