TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xaefa…f98e

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
164
Categories scored
29
Categories below 50
12

Best Category: Venezuela, grading 58 out of 100 (+0.07 per pick).

Best Category Venezuela at 58 out of 100; worst World Politics at 43.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Movies Inactivelast resolved May 5, 2026, EDT2231.8%7 W · 15 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-32.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Movies — the 22 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Lady Gaga attend the Met Gala?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$469Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$469.39
Will Timothée Chalamet win Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role at the 2026 SAG Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$141Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST+185.7%+$261.95
Will "Reality Check: Inside America's Next Top Model" be the #2 global Netflix show this week?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$137Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST-100%-$137.13
Will Robin D. Cook (Frankenstein) be nominated for Achievement in Casting at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$151Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+78.6%+$118.36
Will Amanda Seyfried be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$102Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+61.3%+$62.7
Will Jacob Elordi be nominated for Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$158Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$158.33
Will The Perfect Neighbor be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$28.08
Will Cutting Through Rocks be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$31.98
Will Yngvill Kolset Haga & Avy Kaufman (Sentimental Value) be nominated for Achievement in Casting at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$183Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+81.8%+$149.85
Will In Your Dreams be nominated for Best Animated Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$60
Will Arco be nominated for Best Animated Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$111Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$110.86
Will Wicked: For Good be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$154Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$154.35
Will Joachim Trier be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$524Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+38.9%+$203.84
Will Josh Safdie be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$513Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+96.1%+$492.45
Will Jessie Buckley (Hamnet) win Best Actress – Drama at the 83rd Golden Globes?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$28.2
Will The Pitt win Best Television Series – Drama at the 83rd Golden Globes?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$149Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$149.24
Will Noah Wyle (The Pitt) win Best Actor – Television Drama at the 83rd Golden Globes?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$22.8
Will "Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? (December 30, 2025)backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$349Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$349.27
Will "Wake Up Dead Man" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week? (December 30, 2025)backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$167Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST+244.8%+$408.96
Will "Christmas Gameday: Cowboys vs. Commanders" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? (December 30, 2025)backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$28.62
Will "The Spongebob Movie: Search for SquarePants" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 21m and 24m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST-100%-$11.55
Will Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 17, 2025, EST-100%-$59.8
All 22 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 27, 2026, EDT2152.4%11 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 21 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will JB Bickerstaff win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$85Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$25.3
Will Luka Doncic lead the NBA in points during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$204Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$160.16
Will Cade Cunningham lead the NBA in assists during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$79Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$78.79
Will Nikola Jokic lead the NBA in rebounds during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$184Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$184.14
Will Cason Wallace lead the NBA in steals during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$61Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$19.2
Will Stephen Curry lead the NBA in three pointers made during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$69Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+177.8%+$123.52
Will the New York Knicks win more than 53.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT+185.7%+$93.6
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025–2026 NBA Atlantic Division?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$304Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+194.1%+$590.7
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win more than 49.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$187Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$186.84
Will the Milwaukee Bucks make the NBA Playoffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$58.88
Will the Chicago Bulls make the NBA Playoffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$326Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$91.96
Will the Memphis Grizzlies make the NBA Playoffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$93Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$32.76
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2025–2026 NBA Southwest Division?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$220Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$219.96
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025–2026 NBA Southwest Division?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$28.56
Will the Toronto Raptors win more than 39.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT+31.8%+$14.22
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025–2026 NBA Pacific Division?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$177Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$177
Will the San Antonio Spurs win more than 44.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$115Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+61.3%+$70.3
Will Domantas Sabonis be traded this season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$193Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST-100%-$192.96
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo be traded this season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$73Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST-100%-$72.85
Will Jonathan Kuminga be traded this season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$157Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST-100%-$156.63
Will Keon Ellis be traded this season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$345Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$345.28
All 21 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1566.7%10 W · 5 L+2.2wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+37.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
Middle East — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$690Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+41.7%+$287.7
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$582Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$495.67
Will Netanyahu visit NYC by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$550Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+25%+$137.4
Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$16.43
Will Israel strike Greater Beirut on March 9, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.95
Trump invokes War Powers against Iran by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$106Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+212.5%+$224.4
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$280Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+177.8%+$497.28
Israel strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$245Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$244.75
US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$201Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$200.75
Will Trump establish a Gaza “Board of Peace” by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$88Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST-100%-$87.85
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$273Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST+49.3%+$134.31
Will Israel strike 1 country in December 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$99Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST+203%+$201
Will Donald Trump say "pardon" during Israel President events on December 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$110Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST+194.1%+$213.84
Will Donald Trump say "real peace" or "legitimate peace" during Israel President events on December 29?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$202Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST-100%-$201.63
Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$323Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2025, EST+25%+$80.8
All 15 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 4, 2026, EDT1546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.6wins+0.11per pick36cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
AI — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$55.22
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$664Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$373.32
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$128Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$128
Will SpaceX have exactly 14 launches in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$513Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$230.33
Will Artemis II launch by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$472Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$243.1
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$86Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$76.14
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on March 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$177Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$176.97
Paramount x Warner Bros. acquisition announced by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$179Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST+241%+$431.13
Will Anthropic have a #1 AI model by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$251Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST+212.5%+$533.8
Google Gemini Parlaybacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$17.1
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$349Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$348.84
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$353Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+279.1%+$984.07
Will Grok have a MacOS desktop app live by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$58.8
Will any Google Gemini 3 model score at least 1500 on LMArena by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$43.8
Will Sam Altman say "Meme" on The Tonight Show on December 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST-100%-$26.13
All 15 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+20.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be exactly 9 earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$55.8
Will there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$29.61
Named storm forms before hurricane season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$453Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$453.15
CDC issues Level 3 warning by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT+203%+$89.78
Will there be exactly 6 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$89Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$88.68
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$445Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$284.7
Will there be exactly 6 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide by April 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$199Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$199.08
Will Seattle have less than 3 inches of precipitation in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$64.46
Will January 2026 be the 1st hottest on record?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST-100%-$35.1
Will 30 to 59 tornadoes occur in the United States in January 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$152Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$151.8
Will 1550 to 1599 tornadoes occur in the United States in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST+669.2%+$273.18
Will fewer than 1550 tornadoes occur in the United States in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$113Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST+284.6%+$320.42
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$170Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$169.5
Will NYC have less than 3 inches of precipitation in December?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$199.71
Will NYC have between 4 and 5 inches of precipitation in December?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$244Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$243.75
All 15 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST1040%4 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NFL — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Stefon Diggs suspended this season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$23.01
Will "Spanish" be said at the Super Bowl?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$105Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+25%+$26.2
Will "Legendary" be said at the Super Bowl?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$228Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$227.91
Will "Jump ball" be said at the Super Bowl?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$180Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+138.1%+$248.24
Will Te Boté - Remix be played at the Super Bowl halftime show?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$264Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+56.3%+$148.68
Will "Olympics" or "Olympic" be said at the Super Bowl?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$17.67
Will the Los Angeles Rams win the Super Bowl?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$103Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST-100%-$102.9
Will John Harbaugh join the New York Giants prior to April 23, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$148Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$148.05
Will Myles Garrett break the NFL sack record?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST-100%-$31.8
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers make the playoffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$142Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST+150%+$213
All 10 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 20, 2026, EDT1020%2 W · 8 L-2.2wins-0.22per pick42cpaid-67.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
World Politics — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Juan Pablo Velasco win the 2026 Santa Cruz gubernatorial election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$615Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT+103.3%+$635
Will Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 20+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$124Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$124.46
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 58% and 59%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$540Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$540.36
Israeli parliament dissolved by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$127Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+25%+$31.8
Will the Freedom Movement (GS) win the second most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$157Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$157.08
Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Costa Rican Presidential Election be between 70% and 72%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$11.13
Will PLN win the second most seats in the 2026 Costa Rican Legislative Assembly election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$273Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$273
Will João Cotrim de Figueiredo win between 12% and 14% of votes in the first round?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST-100%-$68.58
Will Han Duck Soo be sentenced to 5–10 years in prison?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST-100%-$19.04
Will Han Duck Soo be sentenced to 10–15 years in prison?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$263Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST-100%-$263.2
All 10 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Jun 28, 2026, EDT714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.25per pick39cpaid-80.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 13, 2026, EDT616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick39cpaid-76.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Premier League — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT475%3 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.37per pick38cpaid+91.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Music — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick53cpaid+17.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
IPO — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Apr 24, 2026, EDT40%0 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST3100%3 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+497.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Apr 21, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.29per pick37cpaid+88.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

South American Leagues Inactivelast resolved May 4, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick20cpaid+354.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
South American Leagues — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in South American Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will CSyD Defensa y Justicia win on 2026-03-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$204Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$203.58
Will Gimnasia y Esgrima de La Plata win on 2026-03-08?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT+809.1%+$104.13
All 2 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Apr 28, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick24cpaid+163.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Ethereum Volatility Index dip to 60 by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$105Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT+426.3%+$446.31
Will Solana reach $100 in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$197Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$197.12
All 2 picks, newest first.
Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Hamburger SV vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$66
Hamburger SV vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 1.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$450Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+108.4%+$487.9
All 2 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 24, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the DHS shutdown last 70 days or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$640Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$482.89
Enhanced ACA premium tax credits extended by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$18.5
All 2 picks, newest first.
Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Mar 7, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Dundee FC vs. Motherwell FC: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$423Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+85.2%+$360.18
Aberdeen FC vs. Celtic FC: O/U 1.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$190Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$189.83
All 2 picks, newest first.
Asian League Inactivelast resolved Apr 18, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-35.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Asian League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Asian League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Shanghai Shenhua FC win on 2026-04-18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$188Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$188.21
Will Al Qadisiyah Saudi Club win on 2025-12-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$114Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST+28.2%+$32.12
All 2 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-30.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
La Liga — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Real Oviedo end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$163Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+38.9%+$63.56
Levante UD vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$119Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST-100%-$119.08
All 2 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Commodities — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NHL Inactivelast resolved Apr 16, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
NHL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

CS2 Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
CS2 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will B8 qualify to IEM Cologne Major 2026? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$552Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$552.24
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by end of January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$620Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$620.02
All 2 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.87per pick13cpaid+669.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$95Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+669.2%+$637.71
All 1 picks, newest first.
Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be greater than 3.5%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$15.75
All 1 picks, newest first.
College Football Inactivelast resolved Jan 10, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
College Football — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Indiana and Miami win their 2026 CFP semifinal games?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$404Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST+61.3%+$247.38
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Ukraine strikes another tanker in Black Sea by December 31, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$543Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+26.6%+$144.27
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Dec 10, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Powell say "Sorry" during December press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$101Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$100.52
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.