World Politics · resolved market
Will João Cotrim de Figueiredo win between 12% and 14% of votes in the first round?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xecb3296e3d9124df425456d7497d153d437ef34aeddb80caeb984934a6d22f68
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,514
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,048
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,514 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc03…804cbacked Yes | 15c | 1,137$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.62 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 9c | 1,087$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.95 | 77 | 42.9%33 W · 44 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 863.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e47…db27backed Yes | 19c | 704$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.76 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +95.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3214…f00ebacked Yes | 18c | 633$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.94 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b64…bd0ebacked Yes | 18c | 632$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.76 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91be…2641backed Yes | 18c | 573$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.14 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2f…c453backed Yes | 18c | 539$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.02 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x245c…75e7backed Yes | 19c | 433$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.27 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +151.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaefa…f98ebacked Yes | 18c | 381$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.58 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc3de…e227backed Yes | 11c | 325.79$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.65 | 239 | 21.3%51 W · 188 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0c…935dbacked Yes | 10c | 292.55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.19 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39be…5e7bbacked Yes | 18c | 277$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.86 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x203d…fb42backed Yes | 9c | 226.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6079…81c6backed Yes | 9c | 199.19$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +3.2wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 7c | 194.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 302 | 33.8%102 W · 200 L | +19.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x152d…e7bfbacked Yes | 7c | 193.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b98…5cfabacked Yes | 10c | 182.17$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.24per pick | 32cpaid | -89.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd0…edc4backed Yes | 35c | 142.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 110 | 17.3%19 W · 91 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 14c | 140$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 457 | 23.2%106 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8953…7f3abacked Yes | 36c | 137$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ab…d0a0backed Yes | 18c | 120$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +3.5wins | +0.27per pick | 27cpaid | +142%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9a…4e09backed Yes | 9c | 116.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…3348backed Yes | 9c | 113.76$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 13c | 108.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 347 | 26.8%93 W · 254 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5421…449cbacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | +6.7wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2b62…438cbacked Yes | 15c | 90.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 125 | 56.8%71 W · 54 L | +12.5wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd92b…f80bbacked Yes | 15c | 75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will João Cotrim de Figueiredo win between 12% and 14% of votes in the first round?this page
- Will João Cotrim de Figueiredo win between 10% and 12% of votes in the first round?No won
- Will João Cotrim de Figueiredo win between 14% and 16% of votes in the first round?No won
- Will João Cotrim de Figueiredo win between 16% and 18% of votes in the first round?Yes won
- Will João Cotrim de Figueiredo win between 18% and 20% of votes in the first round?No won
- Will João Cotrim de Figueiredo win less than 10% of votes in the first round?No won
- Will João Cotrim de Figueiredo win more than 20% of votes in the first round?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.