World Politics · resolved market
Will João Cotrim de Figueiredo win between 18% and 20% of votes in the first round?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9a8cbe5e07364992850ceec04c25304476828a7a7383321eb0c861eb7942a221
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,256
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,636
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,256 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8a67…6a99backed Yes | 1c | 2,270$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9524…86cfbacked Yes | 10c | 2,211$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.55 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…adc0backed Yes | 9c | 2,011$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.22 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +17.1wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf0…e8c1backed Yes | 1c | 1,578$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…bb4abacked Yes | 21c | 1,249$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.64 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 12c | 977.19$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.09 | 91 | 23.1%21 W · 70 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc2…0933backed Yes | 30c | 968.8$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.72 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6163…58ccbacked Yes | 28c | 845$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.6 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f5…b461backed No | 77c | 751$578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.73 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2247…96e8backed Yes | 23c | 748$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.04 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 30cpaid | +186%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 78c | 713.92$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.06 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4346…2241backed No | 77c | 703$541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.69 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7d…5bc1backed No | 77c | 636$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.28 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb862…5aaebacked Yes | 23c | 624$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.52 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b9…b836backed Yes | 9c | 588.12$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.35 | 82 | 37.8%31 W · 51 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd77e…83a4backed No | 77c | 567$437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.41 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.29per pick | 39cpaid | -87%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x964c…44acbacked Yes | 23c | 553$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.19 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1617…ec98backed Yes | 23c | 544$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.12 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x177a…aa8ebacked Yes | 29c | 473$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.17 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked Yes | 4c | 468.02$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x354c…b301backed No | 72c | 461$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.08 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7665…f332backed Yes | 31c | 451.46$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.92 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e29…d190backed No | 71c | 441$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.89 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.23per pick | 41cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0c…935dbacked Yes | 21c | 331.07$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.03 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09b8…13a3backed Yes | 27c | 315.31$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.22 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…f14abacked Yes | 8c | 300$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 149 | 47.7%71 W · 78 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe136…cacebacked No | 72c | 274$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.72 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +134.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66a7…6569backed Yes | 29c | 268$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.72 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 77c | 242.84$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.82 | 322 | 55%177 W · 145 L | +14.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6079…81c6backed Yes | 23c | 242.57$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.26 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +3.2wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x298c…67fbbacked No | 71c | 235$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.15 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b63…bb9cbacked No | 71c | 219$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.51 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8953…7f3abacked Yes | 7c | 217.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb1…c4e8backed Yes | 23c | 207$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.61 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -27%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 38c | 200$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 284 | 34.2%97 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd41…3796backed Yes | 29c | 186$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.94 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 27c | 149.85$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.32 | 167 | 46.1%77 W · 90 L | +11.1wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 74c | 148.59$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.79 | 75 | 54.7%41 W · 34 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9578…f066backed Yes | 33c | 147.69$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 86 | 57%49 W · 37 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd622…defcbacked No | 77c | 145$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.35 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked No | 76c | 131.72$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.1 | 77 | 42.9%33 W · 44 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3de…e227backed Yes | 17c | 130$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 239 | 21.3%51 W · 188 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb64e…3c0abacked Yes | 34c | 123$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.82 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 20c | 122.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.51 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x263f…017bbacked Yes | 29c | 110.61$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.94 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +61.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdaee…bd71backed No | 72c | 110$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 39cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 69c | 109.2$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.67 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf859…a183backed Yes | 20c | 104.84$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.77 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb9…4f81backed No | 71c | 102.96$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.45 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.29per pick | 49cpaid | +367.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 247 | 36.8%91 W · 156 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 115 | 2.6%3 W · 112 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -47%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d4…5735backed Yes | 23c | 88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62b0…7795backed Yes | 15c | 86.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f84…0458backed Yes | 33c | 75.11$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a5a…3427backed No | 73c | 70$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf6…559dbacked No | 66c | 64.08$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.79 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76f8…5145backed Yes | 23c | 62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33c8…68d7backed Yes | 30c | 49.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 23c | 46.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81d1…4e30backed Yes | 22c | 45.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 69 | 42%29 W · 40 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf977…aff0backed No | 77c | 45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +65.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x526e…3bd0backed No | 59c | 35.23$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.49 | 88 | 54.5%48 W · 40 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa15b…200fbacked No | 71c | 32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +84.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c37…b851backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 29cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ad…6866backed No | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 71c | 24.85$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.22 | 260 | 52.3%136 W · 124 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed No | 71c | 22.18$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.52 | 93 | 39.8%37 W · 56 L | -8.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…4d2cbacked Yes | 64c | 22.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 70c | 21.11$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.26 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ca…4ac0backed No | 69c | 18.94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.87 | 41 | 75.6%31 W · 10 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 69cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd72…6cc4backed No | 65c | 17.92$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will João Cotrim de Figueiredo win between 18% and 20% of votes in the first round?this page
- Will João Cotrim de Figueiredo win between 10% and 12% of votes in the first round?No won
- Will João Cotrim de Figueiredo win between 12% and 14% of votes in the first round?No won
- Will João Cotrim de Figueiredo win between 14% and 16% of votes in the first round?No won
- Will João Cotrim de Figueiredo win between 16% and 18% of votes in the first round?Yes won
- Will João Cotrim de Figueiredo win less than 10% of votes in the first round?No won
- Will João Cotrim de Figueiredo win more than 20% of votes in the first round?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.