World Politics · resolved market
Will João Cotrim de Figueiredo win more than 20% of votes in the first round?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4cb2f926037eba0c6f09199f436c5e466928a415e33f65752e561d5e4c04703a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,510
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,476
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,510 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0c19…accebacked Yes | 62c | 1,740$1,077 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,077 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf6…559dbacked Yes | 16c | 1,116$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.8 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc2…0933backed Yes | 36c | 1,056$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.75 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…bb4abacked Yes | 53c | 821.15$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.1 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b9…b836backed Yes | 10c | 779.46$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.28 | 82 | 37.8%31 W · 51 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3de…e227backed Yes | 5c | 732.17$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.97 | 239 | 21.3%51 W · 188 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d60…03d8backed No | 54c | 711.84$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.79 | 101 | 22.8%23 W · 78 L | -9.5wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9524…86cfbacked Yes | 2c | 528.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6079…81c6backed Yes | 29c | 463.32$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.3 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +3.2wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2baf…1ed4backed Yes | 67c | 449.2$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 40c | 444.24$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.16 | 91 | 23.1%21 W · 70 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd51d…1578backed Yes | 33c | 395.65$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.84 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 69c | 368.23$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.92 | 322 | 55%177 W · 145 L | +14.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 7c | 368.01$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.03 | 167 | 6.6%11 W · 156 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe621…576abacked Yes | 28c | 333.05$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.64 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…f14abacked Yes | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 149 | 47.7%71 W · 78 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13cf…4441backed No | 53c | 294$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.47 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09b8…13a3backed Yes | 8c | 291.6$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x851e…7539backed Yes | 20c | 287.62$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e7…42d7backed Yes | 33c | 273.27$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 15c | 271.67$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.58 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9097…b5d1backed Yes | 19c | 268.32$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ef…b7fdbacked Yes | 19c | 256.54$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddb0…f7edbacked Yes | 20c | 255.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 42c | 252.92$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.23 | 100 | 37%37 W · 63 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b79…47e6backed Yes | 47c | 234.42$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.18 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 25cpaid | -87.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 5c | 222$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.8 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed No | 60c | 200$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.8 | 284 | 34.2%97 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0c…935dbacked Yes | 32c | 195.29$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.41 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x263f…017bbacked No | 52c | 188$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.18 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +61.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4831…4feebacked Yes | 19c | 185.94$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9578…f066backed Yes | 21c | 180.56$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.42 | 86 | 57%49 W · 37 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e78…ea77backed Yes | 44c | 179.99$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.59 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9985…6afabacked No | 47c | 153.99$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.61 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbabf…d5bbbacked Yes | 58c | 150.5$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.99 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a5a…3427backed Yes | 19c | 148.61$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.48 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb9…4f81backed No | 51c | 146$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.76 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.29per pick | 49cpaid | +367.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 70c | 143.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.78 | 247 | 36.8%91 W · 156 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d13…27fdbacked Yes | 20c | 132.71$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa11b…f663backed No | 78c | 130$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 25 | 80%20 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 73c | 125.87$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.32 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb64e…3c0abacked Yes | 28c | 123$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.68 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4583…1de6backed Yes | 62c | 112.39$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda1a…ef06backed Yes | 18c | 111.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fe…54f8backed Yes | 16c | 109.51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.23per pick | 40cpaid | +76.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1b38…c84dbacked Yes | 66c | 100$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.79 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 69c | 98.59$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.02 | 110 | 69.1%76 W · 34 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8408…5dcabacked Yes | 52c | 94.03$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.08 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x267e…7d06backed No | 75c | 85.55$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.39 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e47…a510backed No | 54c | 77.6$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.7 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc854…237cbacked Yes | 58c | 75.49$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.62 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00cf…62b3backed No | 40c | 63.38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.13 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +56%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xece3…19ddbacked Yes | 61c | 50.04$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82c0…013bbacked Yes | 33c | 50.03$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.51 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22ae…6618backed Yes | 58c | 49.77$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 40c | 49.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 104 | 42.3%44 W · 60 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03d0…d647backed Yes | 29c | 49.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f90…1d49backed Yes | 40c | 48.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b83…7ae6backed Yes | 24c | 41.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x714f…66d5backed Yes | 61c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.46 | 110 | 20.9%23 W · 87 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43a9…faebbacked No | 61c | 37.19$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.61 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed No | 66c | 36.94$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.64 | 93 | 39.8%37 W · 56 L | -8.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3094…d467backed Yes | 58c | 34.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 62c | 34.04$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 260 | 52.3%136 W · 124 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b3…87b8backed Yes | 45c | 34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 103 | 31.1%32 W · 71 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef5d…a4b9backed Yes | 61c | 31.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e8b…4accbacked Yes | 50c | 30.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -39%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c4…909dbacked No | 65c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.61 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8789…5fb0backed No | 51c | 29.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +95.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0031…586ebacked No | 51c | 25.54$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.54 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ad…6866backed No | 50c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd761…31f0backed Yes | 68c | 24.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5795…30fabacked Yes | 62c | 24.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe044…d9f0backed Yes | 59c | 23.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +836%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will João Cotrim de Figueiredo win more than 20% of votes in the first round?this page
- Will João Cotrim de Figueiredo win between 10% and 12% of votes in the first round?No won
- Will João Cotrim de Figueiredo win between 12% and 14% of votes in the first round?No won
- Will João Cotrim de Figueiredo win between 14% and 16% of votes in the first round?No won
- Will João Cotrim de Figueiredo win between 16% and 18% of votes in the first round?Yes won
- Will João Cotrim de Figueiredo win between 18% and 20% of votes in the first round?No won
- Will João Cotrim de Figueiredo win less than 10% of votes in the first round?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.