World Politics · resolved market
Will João Cotrim de Figueiredo win less than 10% of votes in the first round?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4004ac85f4acb227a9a311c7912883e7adccba5a6de681e8b4f080dcc4b12bfc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,922
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,132
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,922 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 0c | 8,311$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.71 | 166 | 4.2%7 W · 159 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x152d…e7bfbacked Yes | 3c | 3,733$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb20c…5eb9backed Yes | 1c | 2,103$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3097…f5bcbacked Yes | 1c | 1,259$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5987…2e76backed Yes | 1c | 846.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ab…d0a0backed Yes | 15c | 680$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +3.5wins | +0.27per pick | 27cpaid | +142%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x54aa…9b98backed Yes | 3c | 651.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb19…2a3bbacked Yes | 5c | 404.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe17a…c6fbbacked Yes | 16c | 351$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.16 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5b…0584backed Yes | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b98…5cfabacked Yes | 10c | 219.46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.92 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.24per pick | 32cpaid | -89.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0816…44e6backed Yes | 10c | 202.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed Yes | 9c | 152.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will João Cotrim de Figueiredo win less than 10% of votes in the first round?this page
- Will João Cotrim de Figueiredo win between 10% and 12% of votes in the first round?No won
- Will João Cotrim de Figueiredo win between 12% and 14% of votes in the first round?No won
- Will João Cotrim de Figueiredo win between 14% and 16% of votes in the first round?No won
- Will João Cotrim de Figueiredo win between 16% and 18% of votes in the first round?Yes won
- Will João Cotrim de Figueiredo win between 18% and 20% of votes in the first round?No won
- Will João Cotrim de Figueiredo win more than 20% of votes in the first round?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.