World Politics · resolved market
Will João Cotrim de Figueiredo win between 14% and 16% of votes in the first round?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd8b72f6988cb1b1b17739675c7ccb47a99025c2ace562f748c3200d595a837e2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $163,497
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $141,103
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $163,497 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 119 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 31c | 15,793$4,923 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,923.39 | 100 | 37%37 W · 63 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9524…86cfbacked Yes | 14c | 14,466$2,030 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,029.75 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5b…0584backed Yes | 56c | 7,000$3,897 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,896.59 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a37…c99cbacked Yes | 75c | 6,891$5,190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,190.09 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7177…ddefbacked Yes | 37c | 4,374$1,604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,604.06 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +6.3wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc3de…e227backed Yes | 5c | 3,223$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.53 | 239 | 21.3%51 W · 188 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…f14abacked Yes | 38c | 3,132$1,177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,176.79 | 149 | 47.7%71 W · 78 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x936e…473fbacked Yes | 5c | 3,033$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.33 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…535bbacked Yes | 3c | 3,029$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.77 | 284 | 30.3%86 W · 198 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf243…5fb4backed Yes | 22c | 2,815$609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$608.69 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc289…7878backed Yes | 8c | 2,742$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.51 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 2c | 2,540$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.41 | 93 | 28%26 W · 67 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1604…ff0ebacked Yes | 39c | 2,334$921 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$920.53 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4462…8d6cbacked Yes | 4c | 2,136$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.36 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 4cpaid | +681.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…adc0backed Yes | 17c | 1,949$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.47 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +17.1wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 4c | 1,798$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.41 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cbc…1782backed Yes | 79c | 1,765$1,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,400.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +157%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf107…b9babacked Yes | 37c | 1,702$628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$628.28 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa6…4eb6backed Yes | 1c | 1,478$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 8c | 1,391$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.62 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58d9…66c1backed Yes | 77c | 1,357$1,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,049.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9e…b513backed Yes | 7c | 1,347$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48ec…8f36backed No | 45c | 1,330$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$730.17 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +7.0wins | +0.33per pick | 43cpaid | +79.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 64c | 1,325$842 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$482.85 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9480…a200backed Yes | 7c | 1,273$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x636a…09aabacked Yes | 13c | 1,120$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.6 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d38…3bd9backed Yes | 48c | 1,120$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540.26 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d60…03d8backed Yes | 5c | 1,065$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.14 | 101 | 22.8%23 W · 78 L | -9.5wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 19c | 1,033$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.28 | 302 | 33.8%102 W · 200 L | +19.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fce…2566backed Yes | 3c | 1,030$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.55 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe590…73e9backed Yes | 5c | 952.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked Yes | 9c | 949$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.99 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…a7a9backed Yes | 22c | 932$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.04 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf671…fbdebacked Yes | 1c | 911.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09be…76d5backed No | 78c | 832$649 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.04 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.29per pick | 59cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x94fb…d6cbbacked Yes | 36c | 819.04$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.04 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -28%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 20c | 769.76$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$615.04 | 75 | 26.7%20 W · 55 L | +9.2wins | +0.12per pick | 14cpaid | +63.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 12c | 717.01$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.94 | 284 | 34.2%97 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e78…ea77backed Yes | 57c | 705.2$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.9 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 3c | 651.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.31 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +108.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b74…93f7backed No | 77c | 648$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.04 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b28…614bbacked Yes | 5c | 622.6$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88fa…2cf4backed Yes | 22c | 591$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.02 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -3.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…cd55backed No | 78c | 580$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.6 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 4c | 573$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.66 | 247 | 36.8%91 W · 156 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14d4…cc6fbacked No | 78c | 569$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.18 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 45cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f5f…2ec8backed Yes | 4c | 540.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0218…52c0backed Yes | 5c | 521.84$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.48 | 55 | 9.1%5 W · 50 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x322a…3274backed Yes | 32c | 511$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.52 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x552d…656fbacked Yes | 10c | 502.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5099…7d87backed Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12a8…722fbacked Yes | 3c | 490.71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.91 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.45per pick | 5cpaid | +1,861.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfa…3888backed Yes | 22c | 485$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.7 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b47…9930backed No | 78c | 485$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.7 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x036f…31a9backed Yes | 22c | 473$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.06 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 27cpaid | +104.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60d1…54cfbacked Yes | 6c | 468.1$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.74 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 6c | 419.42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 476 | 6.5%31 W · 445 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed No | 80c | 401.17$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.23 | 165 | 35.8%59 W · 106 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcca7…34d2backed Yes | 5c | 369.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 15c | 367.12$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.44 | 371 | 17.8%66 W · 305 L | -18.9wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 5c | 359.68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 77 | 42.9%33 W · 44 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f5…b461backed No | 68c | 356$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.92 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeee8…79dfbacked Yes | 14c | 352.16$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.3 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17be…7a33backed Yes | 23c | 344$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.12 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39be…5e7bbacked No | 68c | 311$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.52 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec84…b588backed Yes | 4c | 307.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe309…44c2backed Yes | 23c | 304$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.92 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a67…6a99backed Yes | 3c | 300.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 6c | 280.31$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.78 | 91 | 23.1%21 W · 70 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1342…60ffbacked Yes | 24c | 275.85$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd7c…738dbacked Yes | 5c | 274$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 25cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0c…935dbacked Yes | 20c | 271.02$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.68 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0991…e29abacked Yes | 8c | 258.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 21c | 251.33$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.87 | 166 | 12.7%21 W · 145 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd0…edc4backed Yes | 41c | 243.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 110 | 17.3%19 W · 91 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 71c | 226.07$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.19 | 75 | 54.7%41 W · 34 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0782…40ddbacked Yes | 13c | 218.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.59 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e4…2d5abacked Yes | 19c | 212.08$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.76 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab20…d9e2backed Yes | 39c | 205.69$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.64 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a53…7a6fbacked Yes | 22c | 200$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 55 | 34.5%19 W · 36 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b6…342bbacked Yes | 15c | 188.72$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.31 | 89 | 32.6%29 W · 60 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c6…4c2dbacked Yes | 80c | 188.46$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71d2…e109backed Yes | 32c | 188$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.16 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +36%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2604…13ccbacked No | 78c | 182$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.04 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf0…e8c1backed Yes | 36c | 167.19$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.02 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c87…3b59backed No | 73c | 163.37$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.37 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +65.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f84…0458backed Yes | 19c | 155.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b98…5cfabacked Yes | 23c | 146.98$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.68 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.24per pick | 32cpaid | -89.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x09b8…13a3backed Yes | 28c | 128.74$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.61 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e8…3f48backed Yes | 10c | 126.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x877c…3a0ebacked Yes | 14c | 122.65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa7…c988backed Yes | 10c | 110$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10bc…76bebacked Yes | 16c | 109.58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.79 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeec1…29dcbacked Yes | 38c | 106.52$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +17%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0a…95cabacked Yes | 28c | 105.21$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.85 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5012…0082backed Yes | 19c | 105.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x714f…66d5backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 110 | 20.9%23 W · 87 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb6…ee99backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62cb…e2e0backed Yes | 27c | 95$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.65 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b88…de16backed Yes | 32c | 89.44$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.31 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -73%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will João Cotrim de Figueiredo win between 14% and 16% of votes in the first round?this page
- Will João Cotrim de Figueiredo win between 10% and 12% of votes in the first round?No won
- Will João Cotrim de Figueiredo win between 12% and 14% of votes in the first round?No won
- Will João Cotrim de Figueiredo win between 16% and 18% of votes in the first round?Yes won
- Will João Cotrim de Figueiredo win between 18% and 20% of votes in the first round?No won
- Will João Cotrim de Figueiredo win less than 10% of votes in the first round?No won
- Will João Cotrim de Figueiredo win more than 20% of votes in the first round?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.