TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x0e32…535b

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
525
Categories scored
19
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: Crypto Milestones, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Crypto Milestones at 55 out of 100; worst Middle East at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
World Politicslast resolved Aug 14, 2026, EDT28430.3%86 W · 198 L+0.8wins0.00per pick30cpaid-29.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
World Politics — the 284 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$423Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$423.29
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$17
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$4,884Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$4,883.93
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$20,866Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+36.7%+$7,659.55
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.1–0.2%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$56.73
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.3–0.4%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$39
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$487Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$486.56
Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$87Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT+37.9%+$32.99
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$46
Will Alfonso López Chau win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$139Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$139.17
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$84Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$83.81
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$439Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$438.69
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 0-5%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$74Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT+481.1%+$355.98
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 5-10%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$106Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$106
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 10-15%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.4
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$62.11
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$930Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$930
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$2,241Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,241.31
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$399Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+30.3%+$120.9
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by 9% or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+138.1%+$28.99
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$572Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT+39.9%+$228
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$585Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT+45.4%+$265.28
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$147Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$146.83
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$872Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$871.61
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.75
Showing 25 of 284 picks, newest first.
Middle Eastlast resolved Aug 21, 2026, EDT6336.5%23 W · 40 L-5.1wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-40.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
Middle East — the 63 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.8
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.8
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$209Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+26.7%+$55.92
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$66
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$44
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$812Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+28%+$227.6
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+230%+$69.7
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$47.37
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$65
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$166Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$166.16
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$209Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$209
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$130Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$130
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$843Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+30.4%+$256.76
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$185Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$184.5
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$14
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$112Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$88
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$44.6
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$16
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.66
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.85
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$29
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$57
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$14
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$223Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$223.1
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$38.8
Showing 25 of 63 picks, newest first.
Us Midtermslast resolved Aug 18, 2026, EDT4330.2%13 W · 30 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-41.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 43 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Jay Collins be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.7
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$53.82
Will Wesley Bell be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$83Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT+141%+$117
Will Bert Mizusawa be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$34
Will Troy Jackson be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will Tom Steyer finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.5
Will Steve Hilton finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$43.79
Will turnout in the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary be 120,000 voters or higher?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.2
Will Melat Kiros be the Democratic nominee for CO-01?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$114Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$113.99
Will Diana DeGette be the Democratic nominee for CO-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$102Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$102
Will John Fleming be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$87Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$86.68
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$31
Will Alex Bores be the democratic nominee for NY-12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$106Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$106
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$259Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+170.3%+$440.99
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$90
Will Cait Conley be the Democratic nominee for NY-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$77Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+30.7%+$23.5
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$75
Will Barry Moore be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$393Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+27.2%+$107
Will Burt Jones win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$824Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$824.01
Will Rick Jackson win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$259Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+408.4%+$1,059.05
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.2
Will Xavier Becerra advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$77Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$77.5
Will Wesley Hunt win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$57.32
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$689Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$689.41
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$1,650Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT+66.9%+$1,103.92
Showing 25 of 43 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT4247.6%20 W · 22 L-2.9wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-19.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 42 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Russia enter Zaporizhia by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$37
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$453Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+142.8%+$646.99
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$72
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$156Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$156.5
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$113Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$112.76
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+50%+$100
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$362Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$362.5
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$1,221Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$1,221.15
Will Russia capture Rodynske by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$28
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$125Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$124.99
Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$403Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+272.7%+$1,098.39
Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by January 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$387Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST+68%+$263.2
Russia strike on Kyiv municipality by January 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST+29.1%+$4.51
Ukraine hits Moscow by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$154Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$153.75
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$3,180Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+113.6%+$3,611.81
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+52.3%+$16.49
Will Russia capture Rodynske by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+35.1%+$9.17
Will Trump meet with Pope Leo XIV in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$33.57
Nothing Ever Happens: Military Editionbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$76Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+33.3%+$25.25
Will Russia capture Huliaipole by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$1,400Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 27, 2025, EST-100%-$1,400.08
Ukraine strikes another tanker in Black Sea by December 19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$270Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2025, EST+25.8%+$69.7
Will Russia capture Siversk by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST+80.1%+$31.58
Will Russia capture Drobysheve by November 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$131Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST+45.2%+$59.1
Will Russia capture Velykomykhailivka by November 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$517Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST+26.5%+$136.8
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by November 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$5,316Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST+66.8%+$3,549.75
Showing 25 of 42 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT3357.6%19 W · 14 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 33 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Woody Allen be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$4.8
Will Bill Gates be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$18
Will Bill Clinton be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$22
Will Steve Bannon be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$141Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+41.8%+$59
Will Trump visit China by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$158Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$42
Will the DHS shutdown end after April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.55
Will the DHS shutdown end after March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+120.3%+$54.6
Will the U.S. collect between $200b and $500b in revenue in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$172Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$171.99
Will the U.S. collect between $100b and $200b in revenue in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$106Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$106
Government shutdown on Saturday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST-100%-$43.77
US government shutdown Saturday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$1,426Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+26.2%+$374
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$65Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST+53.8%+$35
US forces in Venezuela by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$51
Will Trump sell 0 Gold Cards in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$158Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+26.6%+$42
Will the Iranian regime fall in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$951Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+48%+$456.26
US forces in Venezuela by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$468Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+29%+$135.93
Will Donald Trump visit Oman in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+85.2%+$9.2
Will Donald Trump visit China in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$664Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+70.1%+$465.78
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$170Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+50.1%+$85.16
Will Leonardo DiCaprio be named in newly released Epstein files?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST-100%-$31.16
Will Andrew Cuomo drop out?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST-100%-$36.18
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$55
Will Donald Trump visit South Korea in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$38.99
Will Eric Adams endorse Cuomo?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$192Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 23, 2025, EDT+88.9%+$170.88
Will Trump meet with Keir Starmer in October?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$17.5
Showing 25 of 33 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 21, 2026, EDT1450%7 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-20.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$207Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$207
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$190Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$189.99
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+36.6%+$4
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$107Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+132.6%+$142.5
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$496Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+30.9%+$153.49
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$135Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$135
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$250Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$249.9
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$67
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$14
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$62Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$38
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$79Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+77.7%+$61.2
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$120.13
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$47.17
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$360Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+36.1%+$130.05
All 14 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 2, 2026, EDT1040%4 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-0.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Tesla deliver 475000 or more vehicles in Q2 2026backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT+77.3%+$8.72
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$31
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT+138.1%+$29
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$78
Gemini 3.5 released by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$16.2
Will Claude 5 be released by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$88Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$88
Will Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$34.49
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$18
Grok 4.20 released by January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$89Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+259.2%+$230.88
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$18
All 10 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved May 17, 2026, EDT633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick26cpaid-33.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT475%3 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.31per pick44cpaid+55.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NHL Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick62cpaid+35.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NHL — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 4, 2026, EST425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-51%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Jul 20, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+35.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-55.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Movies — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-57.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

UFClast resolved Aug 18, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+95.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
UFC — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weather Inactivelast resolved Mar 2, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Weather — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
IPO — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$74Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$74
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$78
All 2 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Boxing — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Olympics Inactivelast resolved Feb 22, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Olympics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the United States win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$42
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.