TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$208,100
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$219,215

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $208,100 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 287 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x14b9…f378backed Yes38c25,239$9,535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,535.49333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-40.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xecaa…77a9backed No69c21,071$14,588 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,482.9511853.4%63 W · 55 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd0bf…f035backed Yes41c12,567$5,115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,114.6820%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f6a…bc33backed Yes41c10,854$4,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,40020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd8d5…8935backed No60c9,009$5,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,569.3510151.5%52 W · 49 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-16.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac0…55f3backed No74c7,782$5,736 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,046.761553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick59cpaid-20.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd24b…ef76backed No65c7,284$4,719 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,564.924348.8%21 W · 22 L+3.5wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+3.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa652…a74bbacked Yes38c6,662$2,510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,510.3560%0 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0bb4…45f3backed Yes31c6,038$1,859 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,858.5720%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x40cf…d21dbacked No49c6,015$2,931 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,084.1915932.7%52 W · 107 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick33cpaid+102.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x614d…1546backed No65c5,834$3,807 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,026.738047.5%38 W · 42 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa189…a2d5backed No67c5,553$3,710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,842.781080%8 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.18per pick62cpaid+42.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x177f…0ef3backed Yes27c5,329$1,454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,453.6110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x85b8…6b6abacked No71c4,829$3,418 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,411.175536.4%20 W · 35 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-19.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed No64c4,747$3,024 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,723.5214834.5%51 W · 97 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0414…be21backed No61c4,341$2,630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,710.675721.1%12 W · 45 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick22cpaid+1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked No63c4,016$2,525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,491.3717330.1%52 W · 121 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-21.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc2ab…2db7backed Yes40c3,986$1,608 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,607.66520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-74.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No65c3,911$2,546 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,364.2488448.5%429 W · 455 L-2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14ba…b311backed Yes31c3,821$1,197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,196.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8c4…395dbacked No70c3,405$2,383 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,021.53842.1%16 W · 22 L-4.5wins-0.12per pick54cpaid-25.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7b5c…15e1backed Yes37c3,323$1,226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,225.9220%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7879…822abacked No61c3,231$1,972 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,258.482842.9%12 W · 16 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-20%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1c12…79d9backed Yes36c3,118$1,128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,127.6390%0 W · 9 L-2.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xffea…1c5fbacked Yes34c3,073$1,052 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,05230%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc60d…2fe5backed Yes24c2,988$719 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$719.1630%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a47…8bffbacked Yes36c2,952$1,069 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,068.7720%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8eed…5a1cbacked Yes38c2,600$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked No78c2,562$2,006 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$556.945332.1%17 W · 36 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-30.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c44…fcd4backed No65c2,332$1,509 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$822.491533.3%5 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-28.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5cf7…575cbacked Yes33c2,255$749 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$749.13540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick32cpaid-17.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x97f3…3f91backed Yes40c2,228$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90030%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f9e…4f1abacked No59c2,100$1,236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$863.999850%49 W · 49 L+16.1wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+40.4%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x5835…9404backed No67c2,060$1,377 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$683.31757.1%4 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-11.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb51…742dbacked No76c2,040$1,560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$480.527451.4%38 W · 36 L+0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a2b…af20backed No64c2,000$1,270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7304032.5%13 W · 27 L+2.4wins+0.06per pick26cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc5c8…6a41backed Yes35c1,933$685 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$684.6920%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0845…6b6fbacked No63c1,887$1,197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$690.035335.8%19 W · 34 L-0.1wins0.00per pick36cpaid-37.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1eac…3ebebacked Yes38c1,844$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked No64c1,826$1,163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$663.23823.7%9 W · 29 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-40%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b91…edd9backed No63c1,779$1,128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$650.62100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+44.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd2d5…1f99backed Yes22c1,772$386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$385.6650%0 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcb14…bd17backed No60c1,700$1,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$680837.5%3 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid-11.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4842…41a0backed Yes42c1,682$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1543…baafbacked No67c1,657$1,116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$540.862748.1%13 W · 14 L+4.0wins+0.15per pick33cpaid+25%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes20c1,441$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.5726632.7%87 W · 179 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3ec…6603backed Yes51c1,327$675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6751172.7%8 W · 3 L+2.5wins+0.23per pick50cpaid+56.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed No65c1,300$843 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45728434.2%97 W · 187 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8c1…8c6bbacked Yes27c1,280$343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342.59100%0 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1a36…ab93backed Yes32c1,253$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd00f…1ba0backed No64c1,200$772 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$428333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-48.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf42f…a6a7backed No50c1,200$604 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$595.9219742.6%84 W · 113 L+7.3wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xce08…3010backed No68c1,130$768 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$361.84560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.13per pick47cpaid-18.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ad0…bf3dbacked No64c1,126$717 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$408.53531.4%11 W · 24 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick28cpaid+57.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad2f…f00fbacked Yes44c1,116$493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$492.5930%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes45c1,053$472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$471.6514126.2%37 W · 104 L-7.6wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-26.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5a22…17a6backed No64c1,021$652 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$369.095446.3%25 W · 29 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6640…2202backed No49c1,018$499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5198456%47 W · 37 L+9.4wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+24.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x17ed…c087backed No65c1,014$658 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$355.748641.9%36 W · 50 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-23%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeca0…e8f8backed No61c1,000$613 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$387.513343.6%58 W · 75 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x23d8…0288backed No57c1,000$570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4304161%25 W · 16 L+8.3wins+0.20per pick41cpaid+51.5%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x60cc…f23fbacked No71c1,000$710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29018214.8%27 W · 155 L+11.4wins+0.06per pick9cpaid+218.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0a53…7a6fbacked No67c999.98$670 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$329.995534.5%19 W · 36 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-14.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e6a…521cbacked Yes30c980.24$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.41425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-62.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x892b…6721backed Yes32c968.44$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.85520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-59.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ee8…1b93backed No67c949.38$632 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$317.381533.3%5 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-33.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc1b3…501cbacked No67c927.12$621 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$305.956737.3%25 W · 42 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick32cpaid-4.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x86a6…1ac6backed No47c921$437 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$484.264753.2%25 W · 22 L+8.9wins+0.19per pick34cpaid+50.1%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x4658…425bbacked Yes35c899.99$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31720%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x15fd…cc95backed No71c884.94$632 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252.631100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0cd9…1bbabacked Yes41c852.11$351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351.4930%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd3ab…06a3backed Yes36c827.5$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb800…bcbcbacked Yes30c802.95$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.7710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e32…535bbacked No72c800$572 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22828430.3%86 W · 198 L+0.8wins0.00per pick30cpaid-29.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2282…73e8backed No64c800$512 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2881258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.14per pick44cpaid+50.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No65c798.52$515 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283.2327438.3%105 W · 169 L-32.3wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-35.3%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x0627…655abacked Yes32c794.35$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.4130%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b58…eb2bbacked No67c784.54$526 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258.92568%17 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick62cpaid+17.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb18a…e036backed Yes39c768.93$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30030%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7df6…ac3bbacked No61c708.94$436 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.2213139.7%52 W · 79 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-10.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes16c696.83$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.8711230.4%34 W · 78 L-0.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x993b…dedabacked No66c695$458 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.33756.8%21 W · 16 L+3.6wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+188.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf0de…484ebacked Yes30c673.93$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.1110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes15c670.63$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.8116746.1%77 W · 90 L+11.1wins+0.07per pick39cpaid-4.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf170…0d03backed Yes32c655.98$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.9110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fda…6c62backed Yes29c651.49$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.181926.3%5 W · 14 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick23cpaid-26%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e7b…8767backed Yes27c648.32$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.21428.6%4 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-51.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe2d3…2f54backed Yes47c628.8$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.220%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa99c…3070backed Yes54c627.96$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3401338.5%5 W · 8 L+1.6wins+0.12per pick26cpaid+32%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x74f1…16a8backed No53c620.25$326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$294.226523.1%15 W · 50 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-43.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75e5…c88ebacked No65c615.38$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.38633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f99…6734backed No64c598.37$381 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.416944.9%31 W · 38 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-17.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7530…fe08backed Yes40c542.57$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.2310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6adc…6630backed Yes37c541.46$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-56.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2d4b…ca7abacked No45c533.33$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.3311349.6%56 W · 57 L+28.4wins+0.25per pick24cpaid+106.5%equal weight73+0.21 edge/pick
0x7818…d185backed No68c513.36$351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.28862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick55cpaid-7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea4c…9f3bbacked No65c505.09$328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.93366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.30per pick37cpaid+46%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f67…8003backed Yes30c497.81$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No51c485.66$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.1416834.5%58 W · 110 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbf7…fbeabacked No75c465$348 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.653551.4%18 W · 17 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.