TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x17ed…c087

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
376
Categories scored
34
Categories below 50
15

Best Category: Music, grading 59 out of 100 (+0.08 per pick).

Best Category Music at 59 out of 100; worst Movies at 41.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 28, 2026, EDT8641.9%36 W · 50 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-23%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 86 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Dan Jarvis be in the Burnham cabinet?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT+44%+$11
Will Rachel Reeves be in the Burnham cabinet?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT+182.4%+$71.96
Will Wes Streeting be in the Burnham cabinet?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$60.11
Will there be no next Home Secretary of the UK in 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$418Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$418.2
Will Wes Streeting be the next Home Secretary of the UK in 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$88Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$47.63
Will Yvette Cooper be the next Home Secretary of the UK in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$340Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$340.36
Will Ed Miliband be the next Foreign Secretary of the UK in 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$1,189Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,188.76
Will Wes Streeting be the next Foreign Secretary of the UK in 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$9,312Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT+62.6%+$5,833.05
Will there be no next Foreign Secretary of the UK in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$2,216Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,216.4
Will David Miliband be the next Foreign Secretary of the UK in 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$1,143Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$562.82
Will John Healey be the next Foreign Secretary of the UK in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$62.49
Will Pat McFadden be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$71.39
Will Yvette Cooper be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$927Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$926.71
Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$1,944Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT+159.7%+$3,105.35
Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$819Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$818.94
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$1,163Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,162.65
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$77.62
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$129Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$79.08
Will Keir Starmer be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$4,144Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT+45.1%+$1,868.84
Andy Burnham becomes an MP by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$934Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+25.1%+$233.95
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$18,048Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+130.9%+$23,633.67
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$12,114Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+46.5%+$5,636.17
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$17,501Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+226.8%+$39,687.53
Starmer out by June 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$2,547Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$991.19
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$658Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT+54.1%+$355.74
Showing 25 of 86 picks, newest first.
Chess Inactivelast resolved Dec 11, 2025, EST5435.2%19 W · 35 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick30cpaid-38%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Chess — the 54 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Chess, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Levon Aronian win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Grand Slam South Africa?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$353Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 11, 2025, EST+39.7%+$139.98
Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Grand Slam South Africa?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$1,859Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 11, 2025, EST+39.2%+$729.25
Will Fabiano Caruana win the Sinquefield Cup 2025 chess tournament?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$360Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 27, 2025, EDT+118.6%+$426.41
Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 Chess Esports World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$199Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$199.24
Will Alireza Firouzja win the 2025 Chess Esports World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$464Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$463.56
Will Hikaru Nakamura win the 2025 Chess Esports World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$675Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$675.31
Will Levon Aronian win the 2025 Chess Esports World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$32.81
Will Nodirbek Abdusattorov win the 2025 Chess Esports World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$15.73
Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Lands in Las Vegas tournament?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$3,022Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2025, EDT+117.1%+$3,539.17
Will Gukesh Dommaraju win the 2025 SuperUnited Rapid & Blitz Croatia tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$415Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$415.31
Will Gukesh Dommaraju win the 2025 Norway Chess tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$1,051Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,050.95
Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2025 Norway Chess tournament?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$117Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2025, EDT+54.3%+$63.43
Will Arjun Erigaisi win the 2025 Norway Chess tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$147Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$146.75
Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 Norway Chess tournament?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$3,291Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$3,290.69
Will Hikaru Nakamura win the 2025 Norway Chess tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$208Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$208.37
Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 Chess.com Classic tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$316Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2025, EDT+42.6%+$134.5
Will Ian Nepomniachtchi win the 2025 Chess.com Classic tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.11
Will another player win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Grand Slam Paris?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$80.45
Will Hikaru Nakamura win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Grand Slam Paris?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$1,316Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,316.19
Will Ian Nepomniachtchi win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Grand Slam Paris?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$131Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$131.19
Will Arjun Erigaisi win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Grand Slam Paris?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$94Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$94.11
Will Rameshbabu Praggnanandhaa win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Grand Slam Paris?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$56.16
Will Hans Moke Niemann win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Grand Slam Paris?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$17.53
Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Grand Slam Weissenhaus?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$687Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2025, EST-100%-$686.6
Will Vincent Keymer win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Grand Slam Weissenhaus?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$5,585Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2025, EST+91.6%+$5,116.42
Showing 25 of 54 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT3836.8%14 W · 24 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-8.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 38 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$3,745Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,744.58
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$680Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+488.2%+$3,319.97
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$7,648Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+362.4%+$27,715.23
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$600Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$600
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$5,614Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$5,614.43
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$260Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$260
Israel military action against Yemen by April 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$306Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$305.87
Will Iran strike UAE by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$32
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$4,470Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+68.6%+$3,066.29
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$3,130Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,129.61
Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$558Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$342
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$1,550Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,550
Will another country strike Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$273Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+156.4%+$427
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$96.2
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$2,050Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,050
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 15th?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$72
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$162Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$161.59
US strikes Iraq by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$138Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST+334.8%+$462
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$574Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$573.61
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$5,887Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$5,886.53
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$5,170Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+35.4%+$1,830
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$211Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$211.12
US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2026, EST-100%-$139.53
Iran Nuke in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$12.1
Will Belgium recognize Palestine in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$1,637Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+121.9%+$1,995.11
Showing 25 of 38 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Jul 22, 2026, EDT3066.7%20 W · 10 L+3.9wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+21.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
CS2 — the 30 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Qualifierbacked Team Falcons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$157Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$157.16
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winnerbacked TheMongolz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$680Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$320
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs B8 - Map 2 Winnerbacked FUT Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$822Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$335.87
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 1 Playoffsbacked Heroic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$386Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$385.78
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Vitality - Map 2 Winnerbacked Vitality · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$793Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$507
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Astralis - Map 1 Winnerbacked Astralis · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$235Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$234.85
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winnerbacked FUT Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$491Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+80.1%+$393.55
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winnerbacked FUT Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$726Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+29.1%+$211.08
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs PARIVISION - Map 2 Winnerbacked PARIVISION · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$169Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+81.7%+$137.9
Counter-Strike: G2 vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winnerbacked G2 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$517Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+65.3%+$337.75
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs PARIVISION - Map 1 Winnerbacked Natus Vincere · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$157Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+44.9%+$70.67
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winnerbacked FUT Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$494Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST+75.3%+$371.85
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Krakow Play-Inbacked FUT Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$179Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST+46.5%+$83.09
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Astralis - Map 2 Winnerbacked Astralis · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$549Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST+36%+$197.62
Counter-Strike: paiN vs Aurora Gaming - Map 1 Winnerbacked Aurora Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$545Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST+30.5%+$166.29
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs NRG (BO3) - IEM Krakow Play-Inbacked NRG · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$1,078Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST+56.1%+$604.98
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Heroic - Map 2 Winnerbacked GamerLegion · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$263Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST+52.1%+$137.05
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs PARIVISION - Map 2 Winnerbacked PARIVISION · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$131Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2026, EST-100%-$130.79
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs PARIVISION - Map 1 Winnerbacked Aurora Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$92Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2026, EST-100%-$92.09
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs NIP (BO3) - IEM Krakow Play-Inbacked Liquid · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$796Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST+37%+$294.38
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION (BO5) - BLAST Bounty Playoffsbacked Team Falcons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$282Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST-100%-$282.1
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION - Map 3 Winnerbacked Team Falcons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$282Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST-100%-$282.18
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs FURIA - Map 2 Winnerbacked FURIA · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$220Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST-100%-$220.17
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs FURIA - Map 1 Winnerbacked PARIVISION · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$152Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST+163.2%+$248.05
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Playoffsbacked Vitality · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST-100%-$31.72
Showing 25 of 30 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Apr 6, 2026, EDT2927.6%8 W · 21 L-4.5wins-0.16per pick43cpaid-55.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
Movies — the 29 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 200m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$246Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$246.4
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$720Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$720
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$468Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$467.68
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 90m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$629Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST+200.5%+$1,262.16
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 90m and 101m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$154Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST+47.1%+$72.65
Will "Materialists" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $16m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$201Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2025, EDT+25%+$50.2
Will "How to Train Your Dragon" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $78m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$173Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$172.96
Will 'Lilo & Stitch' gross more than $170m opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$168Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$168.35
Will 'The Accountant 2' gross less than $25m on opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$400Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2025, EDT+63.9%+$255.45
Will 'Minecraft' gross between 52-58m on opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$149Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$148.5
Will 'Minecraft' gross between 48-64m on opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$17.44
Will 'Minecraft' gross between 110m and 120m on opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$37.17
Will 'A Working Man' gross between 14-17m on opening weekend?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$293Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$293.25
Will 'Snow White' gross between 39-44m on opening weekend?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$263Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$263.41
Will 'Snow White' gross between 34-39m on opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$142Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$141.84
Will 'Snow White' gross less than 34m on opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$15.25
Will 'Alto Knights' gross less than 3m on opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$543Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$542.63
Will 'Alto Knights' gross between 3-5m on opening weekend?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$59.4
Will 'Mickey 17' gross between 20-24m on its opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$60
Will 'Mickey 17' gross between 16-20m on its opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$1,133Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2025, EDT+30.1%+$341.07
Will 'Mickey 17' gross more than 24m on its opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$35.84
Will "Conclave" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST-100%-$33.57
Will "Anora" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$1,432Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST+29.4%+$420.57
Will "The Brutalist" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST-100%-$58.94
Will "Anora" win Best Original Screenplay at the 2025 Oscars?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$430Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2025, EST+51.5%+$221.32
Showing 25 of 29 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT2147.6%10 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-35.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 21 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Epstein suicide note released by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$43.68
Will Trump visit China by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$2,480Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT+25%+$620
US government shutdown Saturday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$24,568Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+34.4%+$8,449.35
Will Trump end Department of Education in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$399Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+49.3%+$196.64
Epstein blackmail evidence released in 2025? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$4,807Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 27, 2025, EST+25.1%+$1,208.3
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$16,936Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST+27.5%+$4,661.25
Will Curtis Sliwa drop out?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$360Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST-100%-$360
Trump strikes another drug boat by Sep 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$100.38
US government shutdown by October 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$752Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+46.3%+$348
US-China trade deal before June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$2,358Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2025, EDT+34.7%+$819.19
Will TikTok be banned again before May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$147Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$146.68
TikTok sale announced before May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$310Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$310.08
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$8,235Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+25.1%+$2,064.25
Will Jimmy Patronis win by less than 20%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$732Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2025, EDT+35.1%+$257.14
Trump imposes 100% tariff on China before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$397Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$396.96
Trump declassifies Epstein list in first 100 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$757Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2025, EST-100%-$756.84
Will Donald Trump be named in Epstein files?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$750Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2025, EST-100%-$749.58
Will Kash Patel be Trump's FBI director?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2025, EST-100%-$53
Will Trump issue an executive order on February 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$827Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2025, EST+60.3%+$498.68
Will Trump issue an executive order on February 5?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2025, EST-100%-$21.88
Trump ends Gaza war in first 100 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$165Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2025, EST-100%-$164.96
All 21 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT2025%5 W · 15 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-57.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 20 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$330Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$329.99
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$4,236Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT+124.3%+$5,266.36
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$1,976Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+31.6%+$624
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$981Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$980.82
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$245Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+104.1%+$255
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$481Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$480.6
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$337Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$336.64
Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$561Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 17, 2025, EST-100%-$560.57
Will Kendrick Lamar be the #1 searched person on Google this year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$144Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$143.87
Will Bianca Censori be the #1 searched person on Google this year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$1,237Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$1,236.9
Will Elon Musk be the #1 searched person on Google this year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$80
Will Elon Musk rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$84Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$84.21
Will GPT-5 be released on August 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$40
Will GPT-5 be released on August 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$58
Will GPT-5 be released by August 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$261Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$261.38
Will GPT-5 be released on August 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$32
Will OpenAI release an open source model before September?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$34.81
Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service before August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$823Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+44.9%+$369.83
Will Google have the top AI model on February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$117Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2025, EST-100%-$116.91
Will DeepSeek still be #1 Free app on Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$641Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2025, EST+40.6%+$260.07
All 20 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jul 29, 2026, EDT1233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-56.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$167Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$166.98
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$3,120Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$880
Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$160
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$876Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$875.5
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$782Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$782
Will Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$253Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$253
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$828Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+32.9%+$272
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$1,563Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+26.6%+$415.59
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$134Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$133.83
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$85Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$85.2
No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$608Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT+31.6%+$192
Will Powell say "good afternoon" during January press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2025, EST-100%-$16.63
All 12 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT1172.7%8 W · 3 L+2.2wins+0.20per pick53cpaid+28.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$420Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+376.2%+$1,580
US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$710Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+40.8%+$290
NATO downs another Russian drone by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$257Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$257.37
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$12
Will Trump increase sanctions on Russia before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$375Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+33.3%+$125
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$3,037Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+27.1%+$822.21
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$4,046Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+25.1%+$1,014.01
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$5,293Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+58.2%+$3,079.77
Will Russia abandon Syrian naval base before April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$817Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT+25%+$204.2
Energy infrastructure ceasefire in Ukraine in March? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$42.49
Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$1,302Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2025, EDT+30.7%+$399.74
All 11 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Feb 23, 2026, EST1154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.12per pick42cpaid-13.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Weather — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$132Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST+29.2%+$38.42
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.19ºC in September 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$486Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2025, EST+63.6%+$309.54
Will global temperature increase by between 1.05–1.10ºC in July 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$55.83
Megaquake before August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$87Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$87.16
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.22ºC in April 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$198Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2025, EDT+39.1%+$77.25
Will global temperature increase by between 1.37-1.41ºC in March 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$213Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$212.72
Will global temperature increase by between 1.32-1.36ºC in March 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$1,809Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2025, EDT+47.5%+$859.72
Will global temperature increase by between 1.25-1.29ºC in February 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$424Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2025, EDT+132.7%+$562.09
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20-1.24ºC in February 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$44.84
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.34ºC in January 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$547Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2025, EST+41.2%+$225.18
Arsonists arrested in connection with LA wildfires? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2025, EST-100%-$75.79
All 11 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Dec 2, 2025, EST1030%3 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-56.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will voter turnout in the next New York City mayoral election be 36% or higher?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$168Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST+39.7%+$66.53
Will Zohran Mamdani win by 0-10%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$29.74
Will Mamdani get over 50% of the vote in the general mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$6,728Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST+59.3%+$3,989.85
Will Omar Fateh win the 2025 Minneapolis mayoral election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$288Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST+38.9%+$112
Will Curtis Sliwa win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$45
Will Jack Ciattarelli win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$39.77
Will Mikie Sherrill win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$54
RFK Jr. confirmed as Health & Human Services Secretary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$651Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2025, EST-100%-$650.53
Will Susan Collins vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard Jr. as Director of National Intelligence?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$155Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2025, EST-100%-$154.77
Tulsi Gabbard confirmed as Director of National Intelligence?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$1,056Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2025, EST-100%-$1,055.63
All 10 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Dec 16, 2025, EST742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-38.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
NFL — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Jan 26, 2026, EST580%4 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.40per pick40cpaid+122%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
NBA — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT4100%4 W · 0 L+2.3wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+281.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
Music — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jan 10, 2026, EST475%3 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick66cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 7, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-68.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 31, 2025, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick11cpaid+437.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Champions League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-51%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved May 13, 2025, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NHL Inactivelast resolved Mar 20, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+74.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
NHL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Islanders vs. Senatorsbacked Senators · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$838Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT+90.9%+$762
Islanders vs. Jetsbacked Jets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$578Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2025, EST+58.7%+$339.25
All 2 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jun 2, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick35cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Tennis — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

UFC Inactivelast resolved Mar 8, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
UFC — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC 326: Gregory Rodrigues vs. Brunno Ferreira (Middleweight, Main Card)backed Brunno Ferreira · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$760Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EST-100%-$760
Weili vs. Suarezbacked Weili · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$382Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2025, EST+112.8%+$430.35
All 2 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Apr 4, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+25%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
La Liga — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-04-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$1,040Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,039.95
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-02-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$400Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST+150%+$600
All 2 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Dec 20, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Boxing — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the fight be ruled a No Contest or end in any other result?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST-100%-$21.88
Will Fury beat Usyk?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$425Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2024, EST-100%-$424.52
All 2 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Mar 22, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Nebraska Cornhuskersbacked Vanderbilt Commodores · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$59.04
LSU Tigers vs. Vanderbilt Commodores: O/U 161.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$1,395Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$1,395
All 2 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jun 22, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin dip to $100K in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$905Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2025, EDT+122.2%+$1,105.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
College Football Inactivelast resolved Nov 15, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
College Football — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
O/U 51.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$550Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2025, EST+100%+$550
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Aug 6, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Tweets — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon tweet 255 or more times August 1–August 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$173Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2025, EDT+85.2%+$147.2
All 1 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 3, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Venezuela military engagement by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$2,700Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+75.5%+$2,037.58
All 1 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 3, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$50.49
All 1 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will China invade Taiwan in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$31.91
All 1 picks, newest first.
Space Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Space — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Space, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
5kt meteor strike in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$41
All 1 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 25, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will TheUnitedStrand get a haircut by 2025-26 season end?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.6
All 1 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Mar 17, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Lol — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
LoL: LYON vs LOUD (BO5) - First Stand Group Bbacked LOUD · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$1,760Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,759.99
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.