Movies · resolved market
Will 'Mickey 17' gross between 20-24m on its opening weekend?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7c5bb80eb91e2a139bbb312f1d9a4591dc8f22d8dc56fec537de7271bd4e9fcc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $221,934
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $206,367
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $221,934 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xad16…e610backed Yes | 0c | 51,059$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 40c | 17,661$7,141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,140.8 | 177 | 51.4%91 W · 86 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 7c | 12,388$810 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$810.48 | 179 | 9.5%17 W · 162 L | -8.9wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1176…31dcbacked Yes | 1c | 7,832$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef2…d0dabacked Yes | 1c | 3,000$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 30c | 2,140$635 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$635.4 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa93c…17b2backed Yes | 50c | 2,056$1,031 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,030.77 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 25c | 1,717$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.98 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc1…b8dfbacked No | 47c | 1,700$797 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$903.17 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb7de…b802backed No | 35c | 1,312$463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$848.41 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba3…83debacked Yes | 9c | 1,072$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked Yes | 9c | 1,052$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.34 | 163 | 50.3%82 W · 81 L | +24.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…e6dbbacked Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +4.1wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x712f…9fe6backed Yes | 14c | 1,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0de4…2d29backed Yes | 13c | 989$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.11 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbae4…c085backed Yes | 2c | 928.51$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 128 | 6.3%8 W · 120 L | -8.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed Yes | 66c | 807.13$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$533.15 | 200 | 49.5%99 W · 101 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7999…ee7ebacked Yes | 22c | 759.25$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.78 | 44 | 11.4%5 W · 39 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3c…c31ebacked Yes | 50c | 743.77$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.61 | 190 | 31.1%59 W · 131 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 11c | 650$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 187 | 19.3%36 W · 151 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0434…a98cbacked Yes | 11c | 576.83$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.34 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -28%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89a5…cd84backed No | 39c | 514.49$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.8 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17ed…c087backed Yes | 12c | 499.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -4.5wins | -0.16per pick | 43cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed Yes | 61c | 480$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.8 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Yes | 36c | 400$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.5 | 145 | 30.3%44 W · 101 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9118…e9dabacked Yes | 21c | 296.86$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.93 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 39cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed Yes | 48c | 279.06$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.33 | 74 | 16.2%12 W · 62 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc029…0b7abacked Yes | 8c | 213.61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fcc…5b93backed Yes | 28c | 212.94$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08f4…7700backed Yes | 63c | 200$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc654…f0debacked No | 36c | 160$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.1 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +4.5wins | +0.24per pick | 45cpaid | +54.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0d95…67a7backed Yes | 67c | 149.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 58c | 135.18$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.47 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 45c | 120.1$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.23 | 365 | 38.1%139 W · 226 L | -19.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x304a…eacfbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96df…4caabacked Yes | 64c | 98.37$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.96 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf801…e94fbacked Yes | 64c | 91.22$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 42c | 90.8$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.84 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x08e2…71b1backed No | 36c | 88$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.32 | 100 | 37%37 W · 63 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…24c3backed No | 37c | 83.32$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.49 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa568…12f6backed No | 70c | 80.04$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.82 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 39c | 70.74$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.38 | 71 | 26.8%19 W · 52 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed No | 52c | 58.87$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.55 | 94 | 41.5%39 W · 55 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b98…b07ebacked Yes | 61c | 46.91$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.46 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 94 | 42.6%40 W · 54 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43e2…88bcbacked Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff8…0d44backed Yes | 66c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed No | 47c | 27.94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.67 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87ba…9fd1backed Yes | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6535…5b98backed Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -4.2wins | -0.18per pick | 27cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xac99…1380backed Yes | 57c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff6e…c837backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 56c | 18.15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'Mickey 17' gross between 20-24m on its opening weekend?this page
- Will 'Mickey 17' gross between 16-20m on its opening weekend?Yes won
- Will 'Mickey 17' gross less than 16m on its opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Mickey 17' gross more than 24m on its opening weekend?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.