Movies · resolved market
Will 'Mickey 17' gross more than 24m on its opening weekend?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7a2205c79683839d1bdcc4ec9cb5f8a7dc14d59b976884ce902651f9d92336e5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $148,460
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $122,459
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $148,460 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x242f…986cbacked Yes | 1c | 34,570$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 4c | 9,253$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342 | 179 | 9.5%17 W · 162 L | -8.9wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc1…b8dfbacked Yes | 8c | 7,086$595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$594.6 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c67…bb39backed Yes | 5c | 5,382$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.44 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e2a…0e15backed Yes | 1c | 4,445$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.11 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 4c | 3,613$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.52 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0de4…2d29backed Yes | 1c | 2,703$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9199…dd2dbacked Yes | 18c | 1,983$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.99 | 327 | 39.1%128 W · 199 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba3…83debacked Yes | 5c | 1,973$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaabc…a190backed Yes | 7c | 1,652$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd66c…97e3backed Yes | 1c | 1,505$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -76.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc029…0b7abacked Yes | 1c | 1,411$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20f4…5ffcbacked Yes | 20c | 1,166$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.25 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89a5…cd84backed Yes | 23c | 934.56$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed Yes | 23c | 788.07$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.64 | 74 | 16.2%12 W · 62 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3d…8db7backed Yes | 10c | 675$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.19 | 78 | 39.7%31 W · 47 L | +8.4wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x99bf…83c0backed Yes | 11c | 648.4$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe31a…adffbacked Yes | 5c | 624.44$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c4…b8dcbacked Yes | 2c | 600$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -81%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc654…f0debacked Yes | 19c | 578.04$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.35 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +4.5wins | +0.24per pick | 45cpaid | +54.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x17ed…c087backed Yes | 7c | 511.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.84 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -4.5wins | -0.16per pick | 43cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb7de…b802backed Yes | 20c | 371.16$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.23 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbae4…c085backed Yes | 5c | 348.83$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 128 | 6.3%8 W · 120 L | -8.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd74d…85e9backed No | 74c | 308.02$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.03 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9353…cdbebacked No | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57d4…ac0dbacked Yes | 21c | 165$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.65 | 170 | 41.8%71 W · 99 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa93c…17b2backed Yes | 22c | 154.55$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 27c | 136.33$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.19 | 94 | 41.5%39 W · 55 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9e…6ef5backed Yes | 17c | 120$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 17c | 104$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fcc…5b93backed Yes | 11c | 101.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 65 | 20%13 W · 52 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf04f…a8c4backed Yes | 25c | 97$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.14 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08e2…71b1backed No | 76c | 64$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.14 | 100 | 37%37 W · 63 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f19…aec2backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -4.2wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'Mickey 17' gross more than 24m on its opening weekend?this page
- Will 'Mickey 17' gross between 16-20m on its opening weekend?Yes won
- Will 'Mickey 17' gross between 20-24m on its opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Mickey 17' gross less than 16m on its opening weekend?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.