Movies · resolved market
Will 'Mickey 17' gross between 16-20m on its opening weekend?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1eea139106cd8497f4921acb76062d6ba73a80be71108438f86bc2861c7ae95a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $251,417
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $256,211
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $251,417 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf1bb…5a78backed Yes | 26c | 69,478$18,064 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51,413.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0d…509cbacked No | 74c | 69,478$51,414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51,413.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1176…31dcbacked No | 1c | 7,167$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cbe…9bd8backed No | 1c | 3,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f11…ddc4backed Yes | 78c | 2,877$2,239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$638.35 | 150 | 59.3%89 W · 61 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 52c | 2,639$1,367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,271.72 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa93c…17b2backed Yes | 26c | 2,144$547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,596.97 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 11c | 2,106$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.07 | 179 | 9.5%17 W · 162 L | -8.9wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9199…dd2dbacked Yes | 32c | 2,065$667 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,397.56 | 327 | 39.1%128 W · 199 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec1c…4b95backed No | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7de…b802backed Yes | 34c | 1,777$610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,166.75 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08e2…71b1backed Yes | 46c | 1,597$730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$867.2 | 100 | 37%37 W · 63 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17ed…c087backed Yes | 77c | 1,474$1,133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.07 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -4.5wins | -0.16per pick | 43cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xef17…6583backed Yes | 77c | 1,218$937 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.79 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d74…b1ffbacked No | 16c | 1,051$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3c…c31ebacked Yes | 30c | 999.86$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$703.26 | 190 | 31.1%59 W · 131 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 28c | 924.18$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$666.76 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5481…554fbacked Yes | 67c | 767.46$516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.56 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 71c | 649.89$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.93 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x89a5…cd84backed Yes | 35c | 574.9$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.9 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5903…23ffbacked No | 4c | 528.92$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed Yes | 30c | 497.41$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.69 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 32c | 382.32$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.27 | 71 | 26.8%19 W · 52 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9118…e9dabacked No | 25c | 374.82$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.25 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 39cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc654…f0debacked Yes | 24c | 371.04$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.83 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +4.5wins | +0.24per pick | 45cpaid | +54.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x20f4…5ffcbacked Yes | 70c | 360.71$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.71 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b97…99e5backed No | 33c | 344.3$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +4.1wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed Yes | 26c | 341.72$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.08 | 74 | 16.2%12 W · 62 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8564…4b2ebacked Yes | 28c | 311.12$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.02 | 116 | 25.9%30 W · 86 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 57c | 264.83$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.86 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x023e…4f21backed Yes | 30c | 250$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed Yes | 61c | 231.57$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.16 | 200 | 49.5%99 W · 101 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf801…e94fbacked Yes | 28c | 215.59$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.08 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed No | 5c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 80 | 23.8%19 W · 61 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x08f4…7700backed Yes | 25c | 199.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.99 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 7c | 195.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe648…bdfbbacked Yes | 27c | 185.19$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.19 | 81 | 30.9%25 W · 56 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ace…ed20backed Yes | 77c | 182.69$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.3 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2675…2374backed Yes | 29c | 157.98$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.17 | 62 | 29%18 W · 44 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed Yes | 31c | 156$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.28 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | +6.5wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 68c | 150.3$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.6 | 365 | 38.1%139 W · 226 L | -19.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c67…bb39backed No | 72c | 150$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked No | 79c | 138$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.02 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -4.3wins | -0.20per pick | 51cpaid | -48%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd66c…97e3backed Yes | 43c | 125$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.12 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -76.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb869…c4c6backed Yes | 25c | 120$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 15cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9353…cdbebacked Yes | 74c | 119$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.94 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa568…12f6backed No | 32c | 117.49$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.7 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked No | 73c | 110$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.7 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x793f…4ee5backed Yes | 76c | 103.81$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.91 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43e2…88bcbacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fcc…5b93backed No | 21c | 95.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c37…c8f0backed Yes | 27c | 86$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.14 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37ad…c4d5backed No | 74c | 81.08$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5159…e44bbacked Yes | 29c | 69.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.54 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf587…1419backed Yes | 31c | 65.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.19 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 65 | 20%13 W · 52 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd74d…85e9backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac99…1380backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.2 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf85b…5663backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +6.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xda3d…c0c6backed Yes | 34c | 44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +82.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed No | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87ba…9fd1backed Yes | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2726…12c3backed Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed No | 77c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 94 | 41.5%39 W · 55 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcea…e78bbacked No | 77c | 13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'Mickey 17' gross between 16-20m on its opening weekend?this page
- Will 'Mickey 17' gross between 20-24m on its opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Mickey 17' gross less than 16m on its opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Mickey 17' gross more than 24m on its opening weekend?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.