TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will TikTok be banned again before May?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,320,223
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,587,414

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,320,223 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 683 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x242f…986cbacked No61c81,500$49,715 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31,7851100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd046…e564backed Yes39c81,500$31,785 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31,78510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4bbe…2cf3backed No63c72,416$45,463 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,953.198450%42 W · 42 L-9.4wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-26.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa53c…563bbacked Yes42c57,677$24,224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,224.3420%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x20db…63ccbacked No58c57,675$33,452 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,223.52100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+49.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x551e…b0e0backed Yes23c50,986$11,701 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,701.044744.7%21 W · 26 L+6.0wins+0.13per pick32cpaid+52.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xfcb0…c865backed Yes37c46,398$17,147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,146.6515646.8%73 W · 83 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-9.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9ea2…67dfbacked Yes19c44,399$8,436 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,435.8110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cc1…b8dfbacked Yes50c44,010$21,844 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,843.894346.5%20 W · 23 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-15.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0103…067bbacked No59c40,795$23,977 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,818.573737.8%14 W · 23 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-8.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4cfe…5e2fbacked Yes15c37,606$5,467 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,467.07633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+38.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7a3…d8aebacked Yes20c34,334$6,804 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,804.332133.3%7 W · 14 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-41.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6367…e938backed Yes11c32,432$3,663 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,662.679426.6%25 W · 69 L+3.9wins+0.04per pick22cpaid-6.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x07cd…21bbbacked Yes53c29,589$15,616 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,616.33548.6%17 W · 18 L+3.4wins+0.10per pick39cpaid+36.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa176…4167backed No63c23,512$14,813 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,699.441100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0f6…41d9backed Yes37c23,512$8,699 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,699.4420%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes48c19,107$9,203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,203.0912630.2%38 W · 88 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+105.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa84b…5055backed No60c17,669$10,645 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,024.24875%6 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick66cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a14…d748backed Yes29c17,514$5,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,060.3110347.6%49 W · 54 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a83…b4dcbacked No56c17,212$9,628 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,584.29425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-55.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xecaa…77a9backed No79c17,041$13,527 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,514.37458.1%43 W · 31 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick55cpaid-7.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8258…f51ebacked No34c14,000$4,707 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,293.051747.1%8 W · 9 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick38cpaid-3.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x889e…09e0backed Yes22c13,788$2,973 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,973.1110749.5%53 W · 54 L+10.6wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+61.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes19c13,656$2,586 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,585.7121022.4%47 W · 163 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick21cpaid-24.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb843…1b3fbacked Yes62c12,999$8,113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,112.55450%2 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick72cpaid-32%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes5c12,884$640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$640.3931.1%1 W · 92 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-94.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xae06…8acebacked No41c10,894$4,465 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,429.382646.2%12 W · 14 L-2.3wins-0.09per pick55cpaid-28.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7f1c…4e67backed No58c10,535$6,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,434.661540%6 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-10.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0e65…e33fbacked No58c9,788$5,719 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,069.231553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-19.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…ea5abacked No72c9,750$6,996 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,754.572185.7%18 W · 3 L+3.3wins+0.16per pick70cpaid+28.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xad3f…c749backed No44c9,090$4,003 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,086.59366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+19.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x540d…235bbacked Yes35c8,259$2,887 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,886.63728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-40.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cb6…93f6backed No65c7,916$5,115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,800.76450%2 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-27.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x614d…1546backed Yes59c7,471$4,403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,403.278453.6%45 W · 39 L+0.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe75f…edafbacked Yes44c7,430$3,297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,296.936246.8%29 W · 33 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-8.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes17c7,387$1,288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,287.6615332.7%50 W · 103 L-0.6wins0.00per pick33cpaid-16.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed No62c6,959$4,302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,656.4123149.4%114 W · 117 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+14.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0362…9661backed No48c6,906$3,315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,590.7116854.8%92 W · 76 L+22.8wins+0.14per pick41cpaid+56%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x8152…bfdabacked Yes51c6,468$3,308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,307.6610056%56 W · 44 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd57e…95f3backed No64c6,445$4,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,345.171020%2 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-71.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0a95…6a76backed Yes50c6,063$3,062 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,061.911442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-36.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc1b3…501cbacked Yes58c6,058$3,520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,519.642740.7%11 W · 16 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+96.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa638…6318backed Yes56c6,000$3,340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,3401172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.10per pick63cpaid+22%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e4f…28b6backed Yes3c6,000$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick17cpaid-55.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x633f…3c8abacked No37c5,869$2,191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,677.882330.4%7 W · 16 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-43.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5335…0b0fbacked Yes40c5,753$2,276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,275.81421.4%3 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick29cpaid-63.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xda47…f40abacked No60c5,752$3,427 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,324.471060%6 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick70cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe3ce…54a5backed No49c5,650$2,788 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,862.51838.9%7 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-37.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcc9d…4cc1backed No63c5,553$3,472 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,080.552065%13 W · 7 L+1.9wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+15.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x621f…9c10backed Yes65c5,400$3,510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,510366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+43.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8fa…77b5backed No48c5,232$2,531 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,701.091040%4 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-31%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x801d…d8e0backed No60c5,200$3,098 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,101.961931.6%6 W · 13 L-1.8wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-33.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x70a7…b737backed No51c5,191$2,645 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,545.84250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid-1.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f6b…267ebacked Yes26c5,124$1,315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,314.9513818.1%25 W · 113 L-0.4wins0.00per pick18cpaid-56.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa581…45b2backed Yes21c5,079$1,084 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,083.531625%4 W · 12 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-59%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes42c5,043$2,133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,13320446.6%95 W · 109 L-0.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd28b…af39backed No53c5,000$2,668 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,331.97333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick26cpaid-37.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x269c…9017backed No50c5,000$2,482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,518.03250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd67d…9cafbacked No55c5,000$2,732 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,268.25333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick26cpaid-39%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd86f…38e1backed Yes8c4,875$369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$368.55520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-75%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf636…b088backed No35c4,861$1,686 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,174.381526.7%4 W · 11 L-2.4wins-0.16per pick42cpaid-47.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x42a6…1b64backed No75c4,815$3,619 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,196.1911940.3%48 W · 71 L+8.8wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+4.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc5d5…5819backed Yes51c4,772$2,419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,419.2140%0 W · 4 L-2.5wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa1af…d889backed Yes17c4,272$713 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$713.183125.8%8 W · 23 L+3.5wins+0.11per pick15cpaid+66.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xccb4…ac9cbacked No56c4,215$2,376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,838.471338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-28.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes46c4,208$1,923 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,923.2237533.3%125 W · 250 L-17.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x39df…644bbacked No79c4,096$3,242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$854.621353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+17.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes28c3,764$1,054 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,054.088419%16 W · 68 L-3.4wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-35.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7304…0379backed Yes57c3,723$2,110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,109.733953.8%21 W · 18 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-14.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x76c8…ba09backed Yes44c3,685$1,613 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,613.471833.3%6 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-16.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd22…9ef1backed No74c3,562$2,623 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$938.9314135.5%50 W · 91 L-4.4wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-30.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9194…c7a0backed No53c3,320$1,749 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,571.33333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-36.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96b5…f5e7backed No69c3,307$2,290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,017.4616943.2%73 W · 96 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-26.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x011f…1122backed Yes6c3,303$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.0711419.3%22 W · 92 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d9f…9790backed Yes10c3,268$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322.535240.4%21 W · 31 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-22.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f33…89cfbacked Yes32c3,229$1,029 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,028.832352.2%12 W · 11 L+2.6wins+0.11per pick41cpaid+14.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2e4d…f703backed No59c3,218$1,907 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,311.33850%4 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-21.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7b75…cc73backed No76c3,104$2,359 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$745742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-38.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8e4…2daebacked Yes19c3,090$572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$572.22245.5%10 W · 12 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-19.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8341…de89backed Yes53c3,057$1,622 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,621.513655.6%20 W · 16 L+5.0wins+0.14per pick42cpaid+65.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x61c7…82cebacked No48c3,034$1,467 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,566.486423.4%15 W · 49 L-4.8wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-42%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xccf3…8f27backed Yes19c3,020$568 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$567.996131.1%19 W · 42 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4285…e5ddbacked No41c3,002$1,230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,771.89333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick21cpaid-18.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed Yes38c3,000$1,145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1456021.7%13 W · 47 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick19cpaid-26.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x574e…3ef1backed No33c2,851$938 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,912.133930.8%12 W · 27 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-22.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7994…a467backed No48c2,843$1,358 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,484.95333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick24cpaid-30.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd863…4df2backed No60c2,779$1,678 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,100.951154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick48cpaid-22.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51ba…3ca5backed No61c2,719$1,665 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,054.271100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e4e…022cbacked No36c2,717$966 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,751.131050%5 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+23.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed No54c2,712$1,472 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,240.1423639.4%93 W · 143 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe75c…f6c2backed Yes43c2,638$1,146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,146.496442.2%27 W · 37 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-24.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd426…334abacked No37c2,631$972 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,659.587931.6%25 W · 54 L+4.0wins+0.05per pick27cpaid+32.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x585b…753fbacked Yes27c2,587$687 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$686.666357.1%36 W · 27 L+8.9wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+59.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x94eb…37e6backed No76c2,522$1,917 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$605.371100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x76b0…338abacked No70c2,440$1,717 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$722.735843.1%25 W · 33 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-18.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd427…05adbacked Yes4c2,411$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.87128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick16cpaid-72.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed No78c2,377$1,858 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$518.9237844.4%168 W · 210 L+33.3wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+64.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2c03…8b7bbacked No60c2,365$1,413 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$951.8742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick55cpaid-38.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x71e5…d10bbacked Yes31c2,353$729 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$729.383928.2%11 W · 28 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-12.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes7c2,350$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.52847.7%22 W · 262 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-40.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.