TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x6367…e938

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
248
Categories scored
17
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: NBA, grading 59 out of 100 (+0.08 per pick).

Best Category NBA at 59 out of 100; worst World Politics at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST9426.6%25 W · 69 L+3.9wins+0.04per pick22cpaid-6.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 94 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump deport 2,000,000 or more people?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$119.75
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$177Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$177
Will Trump deport 1,500,000-1,750,000 people?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$110.4
Will Trump deport 1,000,000-1,250,000 people?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$159.94
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$808Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$807.81
Will Trump deport 1,750,000-2,000,000 people?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$70.58
Will Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$549Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$548.6
Trump cabinet member out by December 31, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+320.6%+$319.98
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$199Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$199
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$36.23
Will Trump sell 0 Gold Cards in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$136Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$135.94
Will the Iranian regime fall in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$436Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$436
Gaza mass population relocation in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$566Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$565.98
US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$817Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$816.96
Will Trump be impeached in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$155Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$155
Will Trump cut corporate taxes in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$6,564Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$6,564.48
Will Trump cut taxes on high earners in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$62.81
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$215Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$215
Will Donald Trump visit China in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$78Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+270.4%+$211.7
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$280Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+78.6%+$220
Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$1,568Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+72.3%+$1,133.69
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$722Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$722.39
Trump x Epstein files made public in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$456Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2025, EDT+633.7%+$2,890.84
Will Elon Musk endorse the Big Beautiful Bill?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$45
US-Iran nuclear deal before August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$637Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$636.69
Showing 25 of 94 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 23, 2025, EDT4734%16 W · 31 L+5.7wins+0.12per pick22cpaid+44.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
NBA — the 47 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$1,265Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,265.29
Will the Pacers beat the Thunder 4-3?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$454Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$454.33
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$1,192Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2025, EDT+133.4%+$1,589.96
Will the Pacers beat the Thunder 4-2?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$151Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$151
Will the Pacers beat the Thunder 4-1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$24.77
Spread: Thunder (-6.5)backed Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$250Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2025, EDT+112.8%+$282.32
Thunder vs. Pacersbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$578Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2025, EDT+194.1%+$1,122
NBA Finals G3: Will Haliburton score 18+ points against the Thunder? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$599Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2025, EDT+92.3%+$552.92
Will the Pacers beat the Thunder 4-0?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$170Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$170
Will the Thunder beat the Pacers 4-0?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$460Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$460
Will Pacers vs. Thunder be the 2025 NBA Finals matchup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$130Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT+669.2%+$870
Will the Indiana Pacers win the Eastern Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT+1,951.9%+$2,340.5
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$608Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$607.56
Will the Pacers beat the Knicks 4-1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$95Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$94.95
Pacers vs. Knicksbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$13
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$1,547Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,546.67
Will the Thunder beat the Timberwolves 4-1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$66Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2025, EDT+270.4%+$177.65
Will the Pacers beat the Knicks 4-0?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$40.96
Will the Thunder beat the Timberwolves 4-0?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Spread: Thunder (-7.5)backed Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2025, EDT+104.1%+$77.84
Will the Denver Nuggets win the Western Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$191Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$191
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$31
Will the Knicks beat the Celtics 4-2backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2025, EDT+160.4%+$61.6
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$3,948Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$3,948.24
NBA Playoffs: Celtics vs. Knicks (To Advance)backed Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2025, EDT+100%+$500
Showing 25 of 47 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST3116.1%5 W · 26 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-56.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Middle East — the 31 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$758Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$757.84
Iran Nuke in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$472Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$472.08
Israel withdraws from Gaza in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$230Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$229.83
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$128Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$127.62
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$780Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$780
Iran x Israel conflict ends before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$377Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$377.22
Israel x Iran ceasefire before July? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$114Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2025, EDT+426.3%+$486
Another Houthi strike on Israel before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$38
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$350Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$350
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$1,108Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,107.72
Will the Iranian regime fall before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$63.28
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$449Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$449.08
Major cyberattack on Iran in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$1,068Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,068
Iran x Israel conflict ends by Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$1,111Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT+30.2%+$335.36
Israel announces end of military operations against Iran by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$24.89
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$703Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$703
Israel strike on Iran on June 20?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
Israel strike on Iran on June 19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$16.85
Israel strike on Iran on June 18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$19.02
Israel strike on Iran on June 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$85Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$85
Israel strike on Iran on June 16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
Israel strike on Iran on June 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$18
Israel strikes Iranian oil in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$251Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$251
Will Greta Thunberg enter Gaza by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$66.23
Israel military action against Iran before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$530Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$530
Showing 25 of 31 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Dec 7, 2025, EST248.3%2 W · 22 L-1.9wins-0.08per pick16cpaid-74.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
World Politics — the 24 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Vlad Gheorghe be the next Mayor of Bucharest?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$95Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$95
Starmer out before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$364Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$364
Will Lee Jun-seok win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$14.38
Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$159.62
Will voter turnout in the 2025 Polish presidential election be between 62-64%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$14.29
Will Karol Nawrocki win by 4-8%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$571Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$571.28
Will Karol Nawrocki win by over 8%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$175Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$175.39
Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by 0-4%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$5,884Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$5,884.26
Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by 4-8%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$2,586Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$2,586.01
Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by 8-12%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$580Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$579.52
Will another candidate win the Polish presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$13.71
Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by over 12%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$293Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$293.31
Will Karol Nawrocki win by 0-4%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$2,330Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT+286.3%+$6,669.99
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$1,328Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT+117.4%+$1,559.49
Will George Simion win by 6–12%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$3,136Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$3,135.94
Will George Simion win by over 18%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$653Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$652.6
Will George Simion win by 0–6%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$1,741Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,740.99
Will George Simion win by 12–18%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$801Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$801.26
Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$5,451Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$5,451.06
Will 3-4 justices on South Korea's Constitutional Court vote for Yoon's impeachment before May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$65.45
Will 1-2 justices on South Korea's Constitutional Court vote for Yoon's impeachment before May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$14.5
Will 5-6 justices on South Korea's Constitutional Court vote for Yoon's impeachment before May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$280Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$280
Will 7-8 justices on South Korea's Constitutional Court vote for Yoon's impeachment before May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$620Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$620
German Bundestag dissolved in 2024?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$127Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 27, 2024, EST-100%-$127.2
All 24 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Apr 9, 2025, EDT1233.3%4 W · 8 L+1.6wins+0.13per pick20cpaid+132.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Mike Huckabee confirmed as ambassador to Israel?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$31.98
Elise Stefanik confirmed as UN ambassador?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$144Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2025, EDT+1,900%+$2,745.17
Bernie Sanders votes to confirm RFK Jr?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$147Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2025, EST-100%-$147.49
Will 55 or more Senators vote to confirm RFK as Secretary of HHS? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$91Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2025, EST-100%-$90.71
Will Mitch McConnell vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard Jr. as Director of National Intelligence?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2025, EST-100%-$59.2
Will John Curtis vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard Jr. as Director of National Intelligence?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2025, EST+284.6%+$148
Tulsi Gabbard confirmed as Director of National Intelligence?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$2,090Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2025, EST+91.4%+$1,910
Pam Bondi confirmed as Attorney General?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2025, EST-100%-$58.37
Pete Hegseth confirmed as Secretary of Defense?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$1,078Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2025, EST+115%+$1,240.16
Will Lara Trump be appointed as the next Florida senator?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2025, EST-100%-$499.66
Will Rick Scott be the next Senate Majority Leader?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$2,085Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2025, EST-100%-$2,084.93
Matt Gaetz confirmed as Attorney General?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$348Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2024, EST-100%-$347.83
All 12 picks, newest first.
WNBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 18, 2025, EDT944.4%4 W · 5 L+2.1wins+0.23per pick22cpaid+77.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
WNBA — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in WNBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-15.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$242Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+127.3%+$308
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+203%+$1,015.15
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$260Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$260
Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$86Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$86
Will Trump visit Russia before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+128.4%+$56.93
Will Russia capture territory in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$267Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$266.62
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$8,004Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$8,003.54
Will Ukraine agree to pay back U.S. aid before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$5,678Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$5,678.35
Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$3,122Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$3,122.26
All 9 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Sep 17, 2025, EDT540%2 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick26cpaid-19.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Dec 31, 2025, EST50%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Boxing Inactivelast resolved Nov 24, 2024, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-53.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Boxing — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved Jul 2, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Diddy guilty of all charges?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$122Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$121.91
Will Playboi Carti release new album in 2024?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$497Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST+74.1%+$368.06
All 2 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved May 29, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NHL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Panthers vs. Hurricanesbacked Panthers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$106Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2025, EDT+88.7%+$94
Panthers vs. Hurricanesbacked Hurricanes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$500
All 2 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+170.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
TikTok sale announced before April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$575Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT+170.3%+$979.76
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Nov 11, 2024, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Tweets — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump tweet less than 5 times Nov 8-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2024, EST-100%-$10
All 1 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$47.62
All 1 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved May 15, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Barcelona win La Liga?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$190Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$189.98
All 1 picks, newest first.
Space Inactivelast resolved Nov 19, 2024, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Space — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Space, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX's Super Heavy?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2024, EST-100%-$500
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.