World Politics · resolved market
Will another candidate win the Polish presidential election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x78280d5ebf06121d3595b248f0b8dc4b0b3841d7f42ef7c72f39fba2b1f1e5aa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $836,853
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $217,293
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $836,853 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9c66…6b66backed Yes | 0c | 131,635$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.27 | 68 | 4.4%3 W · 65 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | +417.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1934…dc20backed Yes | 0c | 67,177$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd5c…62bbbacked Yes | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -78.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe69e…61d2backed Yes | 0c | 49,570$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 24cpaid | +19%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadaf…f9f2backed Yes | 0c | 43,404$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.4 | 56 | 26.8%15 W · 41 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33c1…9648backed Yes | 0c | 40,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 0c | 30,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e6…d30abacked Yes | 0c | 29,940$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.94 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6cb…0377backed Yes | 0c | 25,187$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 19cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 0c | 19,054$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.56 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6367…e938backed Yes | 0c | 13,710$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes | 0c | 13,377$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.13 | 412 | 1%4 W · 408 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +171.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 0c | 12,000$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.54 | 160 | 29.4%47 W · 113 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb046…0800backed Yes | 0c | 11,620$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.24 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06c7…1f0cbacked Yes | 0c | 10,250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1eca…63a9backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x334b…d734backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 36cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef42…c078backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -80.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fd1…a3e5backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9c…1115backed Yes | 0c | 9,277$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 55 | 20%11 W · 44 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +86.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73b8…f6b5backed Yes | 0c | 9,179$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.07 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa600…d26dbacked Yes | 0c | 8,333$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 8cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6adc…6fa4backed Yes | 0c | 6,477$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.45per pick | 22cpaid | +103.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x295d…accebacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40ae…a59ebacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd469…15a7backed Yes | 0c | 4,653$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +69.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d55…e08bbacked Yes | 0c | 3,419$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will another candidate win the Polish presidential election?this page
- Will Karol Nawrocki win by 0-4%?Yes won
- Will Karol Nawrocki win by 4-8%?No won
- Will Karol Nawrocki win by over 8%?No won
- Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by 0-4%?No won
- Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by 4-8%?No won
- Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by 8-12%?No won
- Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by over 12%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.